Human Heroic Effort versus Elven Accuracy

[zoroaster100]

Which racial encounter power is more effective, in terms of increasing the chances of hitting with a daily power - Heroic Effort, which is the new Essentials Human encounter power, or Elven Accuracy? Heroic Effort lets you add +4 to an attack (or a save), and lets you decide to add the bonus after you miss to turn the miss possibly into a hit. I don't remember enough about statistics to know which one is mechanically better. I'm hoping Elven Accuracy is better, since humans also get a bonus feat and a bonus skill in addition to Heroic Effort.

 

[Reaper Steve]

I like Human Versatility, especially if the DM says stuff like: "oh, that was so close but he just barely blocked it." Even if he doesn't, you have control over the result... if you don't think +4 will get you there, don't burn the power.

OTOH, Elven Accuracy is another chance at a die roll.

I like the dichotomy... Human Versitility makes a good die roll better, Elevn Accuracy lets you reroll a die that had no chance in the first place.

 

[Aspeon]

*math hat on*

As with a lot of probability problems, it really depends on exactly what question you're asking, and what the assumptions are. If we assume that you're, are planning to use the power if you miss, and want to maximize, before you roll the die, the odds of eventually hitting, here's what I found: (New to this forum and don't know the table formatting, sorry)

The difference is never major, but the elf has a slight edge if you need a 15 or less to hit, which you should in non-ridiculous cases. For instance, if you need an 11 to hit, the human hits 70% of the time by rolling a 7 or higher on his one roll, and the elf has two 50/50 shots, and thus a 75% chance of making both. The elf never gets more than 5% ahead, though.

Human actually does better if you need a 6 to hit (He needs anything but a 1, and the elf only has a 93.75% chance), but if you go lower, the human's odds can't go above 95% because you always miss on a 1, while the elf's chances keep climbing.

(If you look at percentage of misses or percentage of rolls where the power will make a difference, you get different numbers. And since you have some ability with Human Versatility to not use it if you suspect/know you won't succeed, that's a slight advantage to the human.)

 

[MerricB]

The answer is "it depends". There are a lot of factors involved, including how difficult the target number was in the first place, whether you know it, and what your chance of getting a critical is.

If you know your target number (which is often the case in my games), then the Human power works with 100% accuracy some of the time. The Elf power works with variable accuracy all of the time.

For a better grasp of it, for that one attack where you use the power, here are the percentages of succeeding. (A natural 1 is always a miss, which makes the reroll better in some cases!)

Target Number on Die - Unmodified (Chance of Success - Human (Chance of Success) - Elf (Chance of Success)
2 - 95% - 95% - 99%
3 - 90% - 95% - 99%
4 - 85% - 95% - 97%
5 - 80% - 95% - 96%
6 - 75% - 95% - 94%
7 - 70% - 90% - 91%
8 - 65% - 85% - 88%
9 - 60% - 80% - 84%
10 - 55% - 75% - 80%
11 - 50% - 70% - 75%
12 - 45% - 65% - 70%
13 - 40% - 60% - 64%
14 - 35% - 55% - 58%
15 - 30% - 50% - 51%
16 - 25% - 45% - 44%
17 - 20% - 40% - 36%
18 - 15% - 35% - 28%
19 - 10% - 30% - 19%
20 - 5% - 25% - 10%

The percentages above give you the probability of success assuming that you use the power if required. So, for a target number of 11 there is a 50% chance that the Elf won't need to use the power, but when used it turns the original miss into a 50% probability of a further success or adds 25% to the final chance.

The human power is more reliable if you know the target number: you never bother expending it until it is needed. Meanwhile, Elven Accuracy is less reliable, but can increase the success percentage markedly, until the very high levels where it tapers off.

Cheers!

 

[Aegeri]

Also remember that Heroic Effort doesn't change the fact if you roll a 1 it's an automatic miss and no matter how much you boost it, the roll is not salvageable. While Elven Accuracy will be able to change a guaranteed miss (natural 1) into a hit.

 

[Korgoth]

Personally I think the human power is better since it can apply to saves, skill checks, etc. as well as attacks. But the elven power is still good. And if the human rolls a 1 on his attack, even using the power won't help, whereas the elf can get a second chance on that 1.

 

[the Jester]

One major difference is that an elf is never quite sure whether that reroll will do any good, while a human might know that the +4 is going to pass- or fail.

But really, what might be the best use for the human ability is on a death save where you roll a 16 or higher- suddenly you're conscious again! An elf has no option for that one.

 

[Aegeri]

I always say if a PCs power misses by a narrow margin that it does, so they can decide to use powers like this. If I don't say it misses by a narrow margin, it's a good bet it missed by a fair amount. Descriptions in combat are very important for letting players know how things are going.

 

[eamon]

There's two subtle factors to the elves advantage:

• You can use it when you really need to; a strong encounter power might be much more relevant than an at-will; and the human needs to wait for the right moment.
• You might score a crit on the reroll; and you can compensate a natural 1.

I think these factors roughly balance the human's greater likelihood of using the power effectively. The humans ability to use this on a save is, however, quite nice.

All in all, over the course of an encounter, the elves power has a greater likelihood to be effective when you want it, whereas the humans power has a greater likelihood to turn a miss into a hit, and can potentially end a save-ends effect earlier.

I have a very slight preference for the human racial, but it's not huge - if it weren't for the versatility difference, I'd go for the reroll.

 

[Stalker0]

I will also note that elven accuracy gives you a chance to turn a miss into a critical...not just a hit.