Human Heroic Effort versus Elven Accuracy

Well, the Deva also has a lot of feat support, Magic of the Ages turns it into a 1d6+1, Immortal Skill makes all rolls of the d6 at least a 3 (or 4 if you have a d8) for skill checks. Immortal Resilience does the same for death saves. Immortal Prowess does it for attack rolls. Eternal Void Memories makes it also a damage bonus. Well, etc. The feat that boosts the check to a d8 is nice too. So one can do a LOT of cool stuff with the Deva's bonus. At it's most vanilla it is inferior to Human Versatility, but most Devas are going to pump that up a good bit.
Really? I can't agree; most of that feat support is terrible.

A Deva could take the feat that makes Memories a D8 or Magic of the Ages. Or she could look for things that give a conditional +1 to hit (which is what the d6->d8 boost is) more than once an encounter--maybe Back to the Wall, if she's melee.

Immortal (foo) is even worse, as it givs you that conditional bonus only on limited types of rolls--and the most important one requires all the others.

Eternal Void Memories is ok for a Deva assassin, except: 1. You're a Deva; why are you an assassin? 2. A +Dex to damage once an encounter isn't really worth being a Deva assassin and a feat. Make it +Dex for all attacks this round and next and we're talking. Astral Emnity is better (as it's functionally the same until epic levels, but you're a Deva Avenger, so your class isn't a cost), but a +3.5 damage bonus once an encounter isn't really upping your burst potential that much, and it doesn't go up that much if you boost Memories with bad feats.

The only memories feats that IMO are worth even considering are:

Memories of Destruction: getting the ability to throw off Daze or Stun is totally worthwhile even without the minion clearing power.

Resurgent Memory: Temp HP and a free shift is nice even as an encounter power. Also, absurd with Ascendent Lineage.

Ascendent Lineage: Getting to try to Memories every failure until one succeeds is totally worthwhile.

Memory of a Thousand Battles: I'm not sure why you're a Deva Fighter (maybe your'e an Essentials Fighter with Melee Training?), but -if- you take close reliable fighter powers, this could be worthwhile for at least a while. Of course, the only close reliable fighter power is Thicket of Blades. Even with non-close Reliable fighter powers, the upgrade from +1d6 to "reroll the attack" (particularly with the ability to chose which one to do at use time) is very sizable.

Shared Memories: Letting you use this on friends' powers makes this a lot less situational, and lets you make sure that important daily gets through.

Commander's Memory: Pure upgrade from Shared Memories.

so...there's one upgrade that most devas that care will take--Ascendent Lineage at paragon levels. The rest is conditional and thin--Psionic Paragon characters should look closely at Resurgent Memory (though it's ironically much better if they miss often; a shift and tmp hp every time you miss is a nice benny if you miss frequently; I could see psions dropping an area burst and choosing to memory the worst roll for the shift and temps) after they make space for Ascendent Lineage, and Deva warlords are probably Lazy or partially lazy, so Shared/Commander's Memory is a great fit for their build. But most Deva will not boost Memories at all until Paragon, and at that point the boosts are fighting for space with other things.
 

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Comparing the two mechanically:

Understand that you only get to use each once. We assume you are using them when it is to your benefit to do so.

Also, we're assuming that you're using it on an attack roll. It's trivial which one is better for saves.

Heroic Effort is used only when the player knows his attack roll is 4 or less away from hitting. Therefore, when it is used, it is always 100% effective. As well, assuming a non-trivial combat (all attack difficulties are between 5 and 15 on the d20 rolls) then this will occur for 1/5 of all rolls, regardless of the difficulty of attack.

Assuming a combat lasts n rounds that means that the chance of it coming into use that encounter is equal to...

[(5^n)-(4^n)]/(5^n)

At six rounds that's 11529/15625 or 74% chance of that power turning a hit into a miss at some time during a 6 round encounter. Longer encounters favor this power.

On the other hand, Elven Accuracy is only concerned with you missing. Missing is something that occurs in 1-(1-p)^n) of all encounters, and gives you a p chance to score a hit on the attacked creature, where p is your base probability to hit.

Thusly, it will change a hit to a miss in p-p(1-p)^n if all encounters.

This is a spreadsheet showing the calculations for both Heroic Effort and Elven Accuracy.

Generally, Heroic Effort will be more useful than Elven Accuracy.

PS: More accurately, Heroic Effort will be more useful if you're the type of player/group that keeps track of enemy defenses as you poke and prod them through the fight. If you are not, then Heroic Effort's 100% effectiveness will not actually be 100%. As well, Elven Accuracy has feats that allow it to gain the +2 bonus (which allows it to work as Heroic Effort does in being a 100% certain miss-to-hit device) and other variable bonuses which allow it to defy those base odds.
 
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DracoSuave: The Elven Accuracy chance of usage should be p - pn.

However, the chances don't tell the full story; Elven Accuracy has the advantage of generating crits and being more flexibly usable (in terms of timing). In particular, the most import rounds of combat are the first few, and Elven Accuracy is reasonably usable right on the first attack whereas Heroic effort requires some knowledge of the defenses and in any case has a lower chance of triggering on any given attack even when you do know the defense you need to hit.

So, for those encounter powers without a miss which are quite a bit more important to hit than your at wills Elven Accuracy will help more than heroic effort, and it'll do it right away.

For attacks, I'd take Elven Accuracy over heroic effort. On the other hand, Heroic Effort's usefulness vs. nasty saves is pretty neat, too.
 

Which way do you want to go:

Straight math - the math doesn't lie.

Knowledge of standard targets - you always have a basic idea what you need, and rolls can refine it. So ig you missed with a 8 before and you just rolled a 2, human wont' help, elven may. On the other hand if you hit with a 12 before and rolled an 9, human definitely will and elven may or may not.

Other factors - there's a rogue feat to make elven accuracy effectively reliable. Other feats and features might also come into play.

Auto misses, crits, and other die specific options. 1's always miss - except when you can reroll them. A 16 doesn't crit, even with a +4, a reroll might. Other classes have special things on certain rolls (wild sorcerer, etc.) Finally things like avenger a reroll will allow you to reroll both your oath of emnity attack rolls is very powerful.

In the end, it depends. I'd say playstyle can help judge. Do you want something that can pull pure horrible rolls out, or something more reliable but you can only use it if you missed by a little.
 

The difference is so small that it pales in comparison to the shape you want your character's ears to be. In other words, whether you want to play an elf or a human should be determined by other factors, not the miniscule difference between these two powers.
 

Thanks for all the insightful responses. It seems they two abilities are fairly balanced though they each have advantages, and it can be argued one might be slightly better overall but that is somewhat subjective because of the incredible number of factors for when one is better versus the other. I am DMing so I didn't ask in order to min-max a character. I was just trying to get a sense of whether the new Essentials changes to the Human race choice still preserved a nice balance between the race options.
 

DracoSuave: The Elven Accuracy chance of usage should be p - pn.

Actually, that comes to 0% for a single round. That's incorrect... but close. My math was off too (cause I was super tired at the time), but it's...

pn chance of not missing in n rolls, therefore 1 - pn to get any number of misses, and p chance for that miss to become a hit, so... p - pn+1 is correct.

However, the chances don't tell the full story;

And you follow it up with some excellent points... it comes down to play style really. I prefer the certainty of Heroic Effort, you prefer Elven Accuracy.

I would conclude the only real 'right' answer is 'Whichever ability works best for you is best.'

That also includes Memory of a Thousand Lifetimes, btw.
 

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