This. Is part of the confusion I'm getting from you.
I'm honestly not sure why that is confusing...
Fail states come from the player's "poor choices" but now you admit that you are analyzing the player and not the DM's choices, and admit that the DMs choices can lead to the player "fail state". Though, oddly, it isn't that the DM makes "poor choices" it is that they are "out of line" or "miscalculate"
The DM being out of line or miscalculating is equivalent to poor choices. You can just as easily say the player miscalculates how long his hit points will last against a foe because he is pressing his luck.
And this is the narrative that frustrates me. And I also wonder how much of your experience of the character's death being the fault of the player's "poor choices" comes from when you were DMing. Because in my expeirence, it is often a result of the dice going bad, or miscalculations on the part of the DM (Me)
Oh, so now you just want to think that all the PC deaths are my fault because I happen to be DMing? Wrong. I'm not saying I haven't done it in the past -- my first 5E encounter was misjudged as I didn't understand the balance and was comparing it to AD&D. A critical hit caused a PC to die in the first round. Not the player's poor choice at all, my bad for miscalculating and my inexperience. I apologized to the players, we had a bit of a laugh, and after they managed to win the fight (barely), the curate was able to raise the deceased PC. Since then, it never happened again.
I'll give you two more examples, the last times I've seen PC deaths...
1. About a month ago in my new Monday night group. Since these are new players I was letting
them make the decisions and drive the story. They had us split up into two groups (
1st poor choice, as I just shook my head...) to search some buildings. One group of 2 and another of 3 PCs. The DM was running the 2-party group first, and they met two cultists and defeated them, but one PC was injured. Then the first zombie came. They PCs yelled for help and the rest of us came running, luckily we weren't that far away yet. Our DM admittedly is rather new, but fighting zombies isn't too bad, of course, but we're 1st-level, so not necessarily a cakewalk, either.
The injured PC, instead of being defensive and waiting for help to arrive, decided to attack (
2nd). He was hit again and went down. Meanwhile, his companion was fighting a 2nd zombie which just joined.
Next round the rest of us arrived and engage the zombies. We healed the downed PC, but he was hit again and went back down (darn whack-a-mole!) because (again) he didn't
dodge when he got up on his turn
(3rd). Anyway, we then destroyed the first zombie, which
exploded in a ball of acid spray! The DM has us all roll DEX saves, some made it, some failed. BUT the "bad luck" was the DM's "custom" zombies exploded for 4d6 acid damage
(4th) and he rolled 23 points! Yikes, right? But even if he had rolled average 14 damage, it would drop any who failed their save, and even some who made it (like our 7 HP sorcerer...).
Obviously exploding-acid-zombies dealing 4d6 damage vs. 1st-level PCs is a miscalculation on the DM's part, which led to a TPK. My PC was the only one who went to 0 hp after making my save, the rest died outright (some due to low hp, others due to being injured). But even if they had been at full HP, none of them would have been conscious, regardless.
So, the ultimate issue was the DM's miscalculation.
2. Two weeks later I was running a game with the same group. 3rd-level this time. They were given clues this was a dangerous area! On entering a maze, two scouts working in tandem to keep an eye on each other (they were learning, unfortunately not enough). The first was
invisible due to a spell cast by another PC. The second was following by holding a rope, which the first also held. Two other PCs were keeping watch at the maze entrance, also watching the second scout. A short way in, a minotaur appeared and, moving toward the second scout, literally ran into the first since it occupied the space it needed to pass through. Sensing
something might be there, the minotaur attacked with reckless attack and hit, dealing 2d12+4 damage, which is A LOT for a 3rd-level PC!
They realized they needed to run, but as the second one moved back he saw a 2nd minotaur and rushed at it to attack (1st poor choice) it to prevent it from blocking their retreat. He could have fled, knowing his
still invisible ally would be able to run without an OA since he was invisible. They both could have made it out.
Hearing the fight, the other two went in to help. I'm not going to go into the full play-by-play, but after getting hit the second scout didn't defend themselves (dodge) to wait for the help, but insisted on attacking. The critical hit which landed next resulted instant death. If the PC had dodged, it most likely would not have been a hit, let along a critical hit.
By being overly aggressive, not thinking about defense, etc. that second scout ended up dying. Even if the hit hadn't been critical, it would have likely dropped the scouting PC.
Again, these are new players, but were
warned this area was dangerous. They realized the danger but the one player decided to engage a much more powerful foe instead of retreating to the others. The
invisible scout would have been able to flee before the second minotaur cut him off, or could have snuck by / tumbled past to escape. There might have been issues with it, but we'll never know.
In conclusion, can bad rolls contribute to a PC's death? Of course! But for a player to claim it was
just bad luck IME is often wrong. Poor choices contribute to PC death more than the dice rolls.
Maybe I won't convince you, but I seriously do not understand this insistence, except as part of this idea of "skilled play" and this idea that death only happens if you make the wrong call. Because in my expeirence, players rarely make such obviously poor decisions.
If your experiences differ, fine, great. Can a PC die even when "played well" due to bad luck? Yes. It happens. For the record, I NEVER SAID it
only happens if you make the wrong call. I've said repeatedly that bad luck can kill PCs, but that is rarely the sole reason. If you stopped reading my posts as "absolute" statements, you might get further, but I'm done justifying my point of view.