In A World Where Magic Exists...

[triqui]

EDIT: Which brings us back, again, to superstition coming about not only as a failure of logic applied to the same root assumptions, but as a result of logic being applied to different root assumptions. I think it is pretty safe to accept that superstition will occur in any milieu where there are thinking beings capable of projecting a model of that milieu.

This I don't agree. While I might accept that you can build more than one explanation for a phenomena where two, or more, of those are both logically infered, that's not the case for most superstitions. *Some* superstition might be so. Specially if you include metaphysics or religion into "superstition", which I do not. But a *ton* of superstition come from what is directly faulty logic. They are built from fallacies. They are built from things like "Crows are black, Obama is black, therefore Obama is a crow", which is not a valid logic

 

[Raven Crowking]

This I don't agree. While I might accept that you can build more than one explanation for a phenomena where two, or more, of those are both logically infered, that's not the case for most superstitions.

I am not making a case that X > Y, where X equals valid inference from different root assumptions, and Y equals invalid inference.


RC

 

[Umbran]

(Oh, and "logic alone does not lead you to all true statements" is not an answer to, but a confirmation of, Hume.)

You said Hume raised a problem - his problem is the "Problem of Induction" - that we cannot logically be certain the physical world will continue to behave as it has in the past. This is only a problem if you think logic is the only valid source of, as you put it, "100% certainty". Many of Hume's philosophical ancestors and contemporaries held such, and for them, Hume's Problem of Induction was truly problematic

So, you made the distinction between believing something, and knowing something - that, in essence, what we generally have ultimately is belief, not knowledge. We don't KNOW a thing is true if we cannot build a logic that fully proves it.

The answer Godel provides to that problem is a logical, mathematical proof that not all truth comes from logical, mathematical proof! There are things that are true, that we can KNOW are true (so, of which we can be 100% certain) that are not derived from axioms through logic!

Godel basically demonstrates that you don't need logic to KNOW something is true. Hume's problem ceases to be a problem, and is now only an observation.

Now you get to quibble over whether the apple falling is one of those things covered by Godel

 

[Umbran]

I cannot reply to an XP comment, but let me mention:

Godel himself is often difficult to read - significant amounts of his work are pure mathematics, rather than philosophy. I'd suggest the curious read Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid by Douglas Hofstadter.

 

[Raven Crowking]

The answer Godel provides to that problem is a logical, mathematical proof that not all truth comes from logical, mathematical proof!

Are you referring here to Godel's incompletelness theorems?

Gödel's incompleteness theorems - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Gödel's incompleteness theorems are two theorems of mathematical logic that establish inherent limitations of all but the most trivial axiomatic systems for mathematics. The theorems, proven by Kurt Gödel in 1931, are important both in mathematical logic and in the philosophy of mathematics. The two results are widely interpreted as showing that Hilbert's program to find a complete and consistent set of axioms for all of mathematics is impossible, thus giving a negative answer to Hilbert's second problem.

If so, why do you believe they show something to be true, which cannot logically be shown to be true?

And, if not, what specifically are you referring to?


RC

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I cannot reply to an XP comment, but let me mention:

Godel himself is often difficult to read - significant amounts of his work are pure mathematics, rather than philosophy. I'd suggest the curious read Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid by Douglas Hofstadter.

That is an excellent book.

 

[Achan hiArusa]

Which is pointless, as you need to pay adventurers to establish route, whatever method you are using. Marco Polo and Christopher Columbus weren't free of cost, you know.

Back to your calculations:

I no longer own 3rd PHB, but SRD says Teleportation Circle work like Greater Teleport to any creature into the circle. It says nothing about daily limits Teleportation Circle. Greater Teleport says it works like Teleport, just without range. Teleport, Greater
So you just need 2 of them, to cover travel from Venetia to China, and back. It means it can teleport as much people as you need (one at a time), instantly, from Venetia to China, carrying as much as it can load (Teleport. So if you teleport a mule or horse, that's a lot of weight. Even if not, it doesn't matter: you could have a human carrying 50 pounds per travel, and make 10 travels per hour (if circles are in your warestores, you actually need to move 10 yards or so) during 10 hours shifts (not a really hard shift for middle age standards, and lower than in a galleon anyways), and move 2.5 tons per day with just one worker, or 25 if you use 10 workers. Using the 51 workers you'll need for a galleon, you'll move 125 tons per day. So bassically, you can move the same amount of cargo you can use in a Galleon, just that you cross the planet instantly

That said: even if your calculation were right, it only means poor merchants, who only can afford 1 galleon, might not go the Teleport route. But given enough trade power, it's not cost-effective. Your cost from pirate insurace is way too low, Somalian pirates are just a couple of aficionados compared to Francis Drake, Henry Morgan, Le Ollonais or any of the Mediterranean turk pirates. Spanish Galleons from America often came in groups of 10+, guarded by war galleons, to avoid them. By the cost of 5 galleons, a couple of war galleons, the several cannons you need (each of them quite costly), and the hundreds of soldiers you need to keep 700 tons of cargo safe, you could make a couple circles of teleport, and be just fine. I can say, without a doubt, that given the chance, Felipe II would had spend that amount of gold in a blink to get a sure, safe route from Sevilla to Cartagena de Indias or Habana. It would be much cheaper than losing hundreds of gold and silver tons, dozens of galleons, and thousands of men trying to keep the sea safe.

I missed that part. Oops. Oh well. So it's only 648,000 gp about 7 voyages. Since using wages for professional above the GDP of Spain in 1500 was about 38,000,000 gp so that would be about 2% of its GDP which is somewhat reasonable.

But then again only 4.7% of the population would have the intelligence at 18th level to cast that spell. And if you go look at the http://www.enworld.org/forum/archive-threads/97601-common-commoner.html then it takes approximately 525 million people to get a caster (my estimate using his data) of 18th level in the first place (PCs notwithstanding) which took place around 1600 AD (maybe a 100 years earlier without the black plague).

And just because you have the technology doesn't mean people will apply it correctly. The Ancient Egyptians had all the equipment to make clipper ships and they took over the world dominating trade to the present day. Sorry, that was a Dragon Magazine quote.

 

[triqui]

I missed that part. Oops. Oh well. So it's only 648,000 gp about 7 voyages.

Nop, about 1 single voyage with 7 galleons (or 5 with 2 warships as escort), which where quite common as well. Best part of it, beyond the 7th travel, it's free: you never lose one Teleportation Circle against pirates, weather, or disease among the sailors. You don't need to repair them or buy new ones when they get old or damaged. You never lose valuable cargo (like, say, 150 tons of silver and gold from America...). Plus you get your profit instantly instead of needing to wait 2 years. This means you would be able to get hundreds of times that much gold in the same amount of time.

That are a bunch of adventage, arent they?

But then again only 4.7% of the population would have the intelligence at 18th level to cast that spell. And if you go look at the http://www.enworld.org/forum/archive-threads/97601-common-commoner.html then it takes approximately 525 million people to get a caster (my estimate using his data) of 18th level in the first place (PCs notwithstanding) which took place around 1600 AD (maybe a 100 years earlier without the black plague).

Nice, that means nobody in Forgotten Realms but the PC are lvl 18 or more. Errrr... wait....

That's such a weak argument, that it does not even have any merit to answer it.

And just because you have the technology doesn't mean people will apply it correctly

I'm pretty sure someone with 18 INT will do math just fine to find how profitable this would be.

 

[Achan hiArusa]

And since D&D doesn't have spells or powers that can say divert a teleport cough* Divert Teleport :: d20srd.org *cough no one will never, ever be able steal such goods.

Given that Forgotten Realms haters always point out how many high level NPCs there are, it is a cogent argument.

Yes, because we know that some ancient genius came up with Calculus all on his own. Wait, no that wasn't until Leibnitz/Newton that that did happen. Or Karl Frederich Gauss (IQ: unrateable) had enough genius that he probably could have come up with Relativity if he hadn't been born before James Clerk Maxwell. Discoveries don't happen just because someone is a genius. Standing on the shoulders of giants and all that.

And as for pirates, their exploits have been greatly exaggerated. Out of 400 years of overseas commerce only about 30 or so years have had endemic problems with piracy. Sir Francis Drake was a very inept pirate (he basically failed at every attempt to be a pirate unless it was part of a military campaign) but a good explorer and military leader.

 

[triqui]

And since D&D doesn't have spells or powers that can say divert a teleport cough* Divert Teleport :: d20srd.org *cough no one will never, ever be able steal such goods.

Except it require to infiltrate the pirates INTO the warehouse (Which is 1000000000% harder to do than assaulting a ship.), becouse of the short range of the spell, AND it's psionic, which not all the campaigns use, and is not related to the topic of the thread: "in a world where MAGIC exists...". Sure, if a Star Trekk use some weird quasar device to steal the cargo while teleported, it might be a problem. Yet it's irrelevant to the topic, which do not include Star Trekk. Or psionics

Plus, unless you have an elephant with psion powers, the amount of gold you can steal is pretty low: the psion's maximum load. That's pretty insingificant for a 150 ton cargo

Given that Forgotten Realms haters always point out how many high level NPCs there are, it is a cogent argument.

Which is irrelevant. Fact is nobody ever use your "1/525million" suggestion. In NONE of the campaign settings (except, maybe, Eberron), from Greyhawk to Dark Sun.

Yes, because we know that some ancient genius came up with Calculus all on his own. Wait, no that wasn't until Leibnitz/Newton that that did happen. Or Karl Frederich Gauss (IQ: unrateable) had enough genius that he probably could have come up with Relativity if he hadn't been born before James Clerk Maxwell. Discoveries don't happen just because someone is a genius. Standing on the shoulders of giants and all that.

If you don't find yourself the difference between discovering Calculus or the Relativity and counting up that the cost of two spells is lower than the cost of 1 single heavy expedition, then there's little I can do to help you . Traders have been making calculations like those (ie: which route is more expensive, adding the cost of all factors) since ancient Egypt

And as for pirates, their exploits have been greatly exaggerated. Out of 400 years of overseas commerce only about 30 or so years have had endemic problems with piracy.

Tell that to the spanish galleons. And even with low level piracy (ie: somalian pirates) or NO piracy at all, 2 circles of Teleport are faster, cheaper, more effective and more efficient. Even without pirates, I can move 700+ tons of cargo in less than 1/100 of the time you need to do so with galleons, for same gold or less. So I could get 100 times as much gold in the same amount of time

Like always magic is involved, there is no point at all to do things in mundane ways. If, as the OP suggest, magic exist and is as common as electricity, it would be pervasive, and would render mundane means completely obsolet. Even with our current levels of technology, Pan Am or FedEx would have a *tough* day trying to compete with Teleportation Circles, y'know