Philotomy Jurament said:
I don't think it's all-or-nothing. Fewer products, certainly. No useful products? Sorry, I just don't buy it. A smaller, more hobbyist market isn't doomed to death.
Failure to die does not imply a better situation. It is not sufficient that they not be doomed to death - you kind of ought to demonstrate how it would be at least as good, if not better, than what we have now.
When I said, "you will not see useful products," I meant that literally - you won't see them on the shelves. Distribution for small publishers really stinks.
We've seen what you're talking about before, back when you needed to go to small hobby shops to find D&D stuff. And guess what? Much of that D&D stuff wasn't so good. And at the time, that model didn't seem to support more than D&D - it was only when TSR and the market got bigger did we start to see diversification of games.
So doomed to death? Maybe not. But good for even hobbist gamers? I remain unconvinced.
Again, I cite the wargame market. It's smaller than it used to be, and there's no Avalon Hill out there right now. But there are a LOT of really great wargames that are being produced.
I would not cite that as an example so quick. You've already said that you don't have numbers. I certainly don't. But, I wouldn't be surprised to find that, at least in terms of raw dollars if not bodies, the wargame market was larger than the tabletop RPG market.
If you're including many of the European-born semi-wargames (Settlers of Catan, Carcassone, et al), I would be rather surprised if they didn't have the larger market. Which would, of course, drastically reduce the usefulness of the comparison.