D&D 5E "Labels" and D&D Gaming

Hussar

Legend
Let's put it another way.

I believe that gamers have always, generally, played campaigns that last 12-18 months. Are there those with longer campaigns? Absolutely. I totally know that's true. However, on average, most home games have a half life of about a year to two years.

As evidence of that, I present the following:

1. WotC market research found that this was true for gamers who were under 35.
2. Every single poll I've ever seen on every single gaming website for the past twenty years mirrors this same result - you have a huge number spiking at about 18 months, and then a pretty long tail stretching into the years longer.
3. Multiple Dragon Magazine polls over the years pegged their readership at around 20 years old. Give or take. Again, this mirrors both the WotC market research and every other poll I've ever seen. Meaning that the older crowd just isn't spending the money on the hobby.
4. Convention crowds - again, this is more anecdotal, but, convention crowds are overwhelmingly in their 20's - although that has been greying more and more as time has gone on. In 1995, seeing a 50 year old gamer at a convention was pretty uncommon.

So, now, the counter contention is that there is this rather large population of gamers out there, enough that they tip the balances of the averages, that play these multi-year, extended campaigns. Ok, fair enough. Where are they? What evidence is there that they exist in any significant numbers? Is there just this really big group of silent gamers that never come online, never participate in the larger hobby?

In other words, why do you believe that there are large numbers of these multi-year campaigns going on out there?
 

log in or register to remove this ad

Lanefan

Victoria Rules
Let's put it another way.

I believe that gamers have always, generally, played campaigns that last 12-18 months. Are there those with longer campaigns? Absolutely. I totally know that's true. However, on average, most home games have a half life of about a year to two years.

As evidence of that, I present the following:

1. WotC market research found that this was true for gamers who were under 35.
2. Every single poll I've ever seen on every single gaming website for the past twenty years mirrors this same result - you have a huge number spiking at about 18 months, and then a pretty long tail stretching into the years longer.
Yes, I'll give you that WotC found this to be generally true for gamers under 35. Their mistake lay in then extrapolating that across the whole gaming market.

Anything in the past 20 years is tainted by both the WotC study and by 3e's speeding-up of campaign play.

3. Multiple Dragon Magazine polls over the years pegged their readership at around 20 years old. Give or take. Again, this mirrors both the WotC market research and every other poll I've ever seen. Meaning that the older crowd just isn't spending the money on the hobby.
Curious - got any dates on these? (I gave away my Dragon collection quite some time ago) I might have started reading Dragon when I was 21 or so, and on-and-off buying them not long after that for the following 18-ish years (kinda stopped once 3e hit), and the sense I got was the average age of the readership more or less mirrored my own except early on, when the average reader age was - or at least seemed to be - older.

4. Convention crowds - again, this is more anecdotal, but, convention crowds are overwhelmingly in their 20's - although that has been greying more and more as time has gone on. In 1995, seeing a 50 year old gamer at a convention was pretty uncommon.
I really don't fit any of your patterns, do I?

The first "geek" convention of any kind I went to, never mind gaming, was when I was about 38: a Star Trek convention in Vancouver. The first gaming convention of any kind I went to was when I was 42: GenCon. (might as well start big!) :)

So, now, the counter contention is that there is this rather large population of gamers out there, enough that they tip the balances of the averages, that play these multi-year, extended campaigns. Ok, fair enough. Where are they? What evidence is there that they exist in any significant numbers? Is there just this really big group of silent gamers that never come online, never participate in the larger hobby?
Not sure.

I know for sure that those of us online are just the very tip of the iceberg, but I can't say overall what that iceberg consists of. All I can speak to is our own crew, and of the 25-ish people I've played with or DMed since 2005 (when I joined ENWorld, my first real foray into online RPG anything other than a brief look at usenet in the 90s) I think maybe 5 of them have any RPG-related online presence (all here) of whom only one* besides me has a post count higher than about 5. Which kinda makes me the tip of our little iceberg, I guess. :)

* - and I haven't seen a post from that one in quite some time now, though that may be simply due to following different parts of the site.
 

Hussar

Legend
But, that's my point @Lanefan. Other than personal anecdote, do you have any actual evidence that points to the prevalence of lengthy campaigns and older gamers? Because, frankly, if we're playing dueling anecdotes, mine are pretty different than yours.
 

Financially, if I'm a company I want to market to everyone I can, not just to a select group.

Marketing isn't just advertising; it's also product design. Outside of a handful of very, very boring products such as rice, drinking water, and toilet paper, there aren't a whole lot of things that have universal appeal. Changing your product to appeal to one group can and often does mean it becomes less appealing to some other group.

However, overly focusing your product on the people who spend the most money is a very late-90s thing to do. This was conventional B-school wisdom at the time, but most people have moved on. If you focus on the people who spend the most, you're focusing on established customers who already spend a lot of money and not doing anything to attract new ones.

The comic book industry basically destroyed itself by doing that. What we saw in RPGs and comics in this era is that by becoming hyper-focused on hobby shop enthusiasts, they failed to attract kids and thus create new fans. The reason 4e got made to begin with, and made the way it did, is 3rd edition was failing to attract new customers, and the splat machine ran out of its ability to print money startlingly quickly. WotC knew they had to get new players or die...and from what I read, 4e was quite successful at that. Problem is, it drove off a lot of old players, too!
 

Marandahir

Crown-Forester (he/him)
Marketing isn't just advertising; it's also product design. Outside of a handful of very, very boring products such as rice, drinking water, and toilet paper, there aren't a whole lot of things that have universal appeal. Changing your product to appeal to one group can and often does mean it becomes less appealing to some other group.

However, overly focusing your product on the people who spend the most money is a very late-90s thing to do. This was conventional B-school wisdom at the time, but most people have moved on. If you focus on the people who spend the most, you're focusing on established customers who already spend a lot of money and not doing anything to attract new ones.

The comic book industry basically destroyed itself by doing that. What we saw in RPGs and comics in this era is that by becoming hyper-focused on hobby shop enthusiasts, they failed to attract kids and thus create new fans. The reason 4e got made to begin with, and made the way it did, is 3rd edition was failing to attract new customers, and the splat machine ran out of its ability to print money startlingly quickly. WotC knew they had to get new players or die...and from what I read, 4e was quite successful at that. Problem is, it drove off a lot of old players, too!

Which is why 5e was made. 4e was INCREDIBLY successful in bringing in new, younger players who had never played D&D before. But it didn't have the technological tools or the cultural zeitgeist to capitalize on that new market, and it also fractured the current player base (something that was bound to happen anyway at any new edition change, and especially due to the mistakes of the SRD 3.0 & OGL and the burning of bridges with Paizo).

5e comes around, is developed with years of playtesting by fans of ALL previous editions in order to reconcile the broken base, has the technological tools to actually capitalize on the pdf and digital markets to make a SRD 5.0 actually WORK in WotC's favour (something 4e STRIVED to to do but WotC failed spectacularly with at every step of the way), and came into being alongside Twitch stream culture and in a world where Adventure Time and other mainstream media actively encourage fantasy roleplaying in people of all ages, rather than treating it as a niche, nerdy hobby to be shunned. It also has absolutely free rules to start, and methods for the DM to buy books digitally for the whole group without getting into the nebulous legal-issues of "circulating the tapes." There's never been an easier and cheaper time to get into D&D.

This is why 5e has to have elements of 4e in it (like Tieflings and Dragonborn and Battle Masters and Avengers-in-All-But-Name-Paladins and AEDU Warlocks in the Player's Handbook), to the chagrin of many 3.5e and earlier fans. 5e is the Nintendo Switch to 4e's Wii U. It's the Smash Bros. Ultimate of D&D editions: EVERYBODY is here (or at least that's the intention).

Every new edition of the game is going to either react to or build upon the previous editions, and I'd argue that they all do some complex of both. That includes 3rd party forks like Castles and Crusades, Pathfinder, 13th Age, and Adventures in Middle-earth. 5e found the happy medium in doing so, where it was able to learn from the lessons of the past editions and retain as many 4e players as reasonably possible, bring back into the fold as many older-edition players as reasonably possible, and bring in as many new players as reasonably possible.

3e had a huge data-driven survey ahead of its development. But that was in the late 90s. Big data has come A LONG way since then, and most of us are freely and passively giving up our data to online aggregators when we're not actively doing so because we WANTED to influence the creation and ongoing development of 5e. Big data is EXTREMELY important to a company's profit margins, and Hasbro was about ready to fold the D&D division of WotC several times through the lifetime of 4e, because the data they had used to project what would sell in 4e didn't meet the realities of supply, demand, price, and technology of the time.

DMs Guild is built in such a way: the more a product sells, the more its promoted by the system, and the more closely WotC scrutinizes whether they should be getting in on the $$$ with their own official version or something in that vein. That's WHY the semi-official Guild Adepts program exists. Why do you think Rune Knight Fighter and Noble Genie Warlock were in Unearthed Arcana after they showed up in Xanathar's Lost Notes to Everything Else? WotC saw a product that was successful, and archetypes that people liked, but might be able to do it better and to a wider audience.

That DOES NOT mean everyone will get on board with it. If you are not happy with 5e's official books (not to mention the wealth of options and tweaks available from DMs Guild, DriveThruRPG, and physical 3rd party products), then, yeah, it might suck to be you right now. But you'd be the exception to the rule; dare I say, the exception that PROVES the rule. You're not the target demographic, because you're happy with an older version of the game. Do they want to figure out a way to make you buy 5e? Sure, you could be a peripheral demographic – but only so much as you might buy what they're developing. And they're NOT going to spend resources developing material that ONLY your peripheral demographic is going to buy. To that end, they're not even going to open the DMs Guild to developing OD&D, Basic D&D, 1e AD&D, 2e AD&D, etc because that doesn't serve the data scraping purposes that are even more profitable to WotC than the fraction they get from every sale on the website. Your old editions just aren't worth the $ and time granted, and every dollar and minute the team spends on something that isn't the most recent edition is money and time lost from Hasbro's profit margins, and inches granted to competitors like Paizo that are attempting to push back into the market that has been dominated for the last few years by 5e.

I'm not saying I want Pathfinder 2 to fail, or that leaving you out to dry is a good thing. But it does not serve the market interests of WotC, and liberal allowances toward 3rd Parties to use their proprietary content is party of what allowed them to lose the 3.5e player base in the first place. They're not going to actively or passively TRY to split the market. They're going to do everything they can to CONSOLIDATE the market. And that means, they'll sell you ALL the back content from old editions on DM's Guild. But they won't make new content for obsolete editions (obsolete in terms of their market priorities, not in terms of playable or not). They might make special editions of old books again. That's like collector's goods. They like that – Beadle and Grimm have been very successful licensees for special edition collector's goods. But they won't develop for multiple editions.

Maybe in an ideal world, 6e will have rule system sliders to allow play to look like any previous edition's complexity. That was half-promised for 5e, and not met as it eiter didn't playtest entirely well or was going to be too much work in the face of meeting the goal of release by D&D's 40th birthday. Maybe there's an R&D team working on that still. But I wouldn't put my chips on it – at least not while 5e is still selling like hotcakes.
 

One of the biggest changes in marketing culture since the 1990s is the appearance of books like Blue Ocean Strategy. The basic idea is that you need to be looking at the people who aren't buying your product and ask, "why not?"

Why did people quit buying?
Why do the kinds of people who bought 20 years ago no longer buy?
Why do some people have zero interest all?

You can't get everybody, but Mearls et al. consciously wanted to bring back lapsed 3.5 players, convince old duffers with dog-eared AD&D books to buy in, as well as draw in players who had never even played an RPG before. They've overall done a pretty good job of that. D&D is bigger than ever, and RPGs are bigger than ever due to D&D driving the market. This edition is really easy to get into, probably as easy as Cyclopedia, but still has enough going on for the super fans.
 

billd91

Not your screen monkey (he/him)
You're presuming that they only ever did one study? That no preliminary research was done? That they just picked numbers out of a hat?

That's just mind bogglingly stupid if true.

Or, could it simply be that older gamers slow down their buying? I dunno, seems pretty likely to me.

Here’s what they had to say about the 12-35 age bracket in their market segmentation study:
Ryan Dancey said:
This age bracket was arbitrarily chosen on the basis of internal analysis
regarding the probable target customers for the company’s products. We know
for certain that there are lots of gamers older than 35, especially for
games like Dungeons & Dragons; however, we wanted to keep the study to a
manageable size and profile. Perhaps in a few years a more detailed study
will be done of the entire population.

Doesn‘t sound to me that it was based on research that buying dropped off at 35 in the 1990s.
 

Oofta

Legend
Having run or helped run a couple of game days in a major metro area when we switched to 4E, I would just say that in my experience 4E may have attracted a bunch of new players at first but it did not retain them.

I think they did a better job with 5E. More approachable than 3.5 (or PathFinder for that matter) while handling all levels of play better than previous editions. Nothing is ever perfect of course, but I think the sales numbers for 5E speak for themselves.
 

MoonSong

Rules-lawyering drama queen but not a munchkin
The comic book industry basically destroyed itself by doing that. What we saw in RPGs and comics in this era is that by becoming hyper-focused on hobby shop enthusiasts, they failed to attract kids and thus create new fans.
It is not as simple, but I blame Marvel shenanigans for most of it happening. It began with the bad mismanagement in the mid nineties with then owner sacking the company for all that it was worth it, and raising prices to compensate for falling sales became standard operation procedure. Then the Hero-world fiasco happened -in short Marvel bought distributor Hero World in a bid to expand, it was a disaster that led to Diamond becoming a monopoly and brought down a ton of stores with it-.

Then in the mid aughts, Marvel noticed DC was more popular with female readers and without caring to find out why or how, it decided it had to be number one with women too, no matter the cost, and proceeded with extreme clumsiness. The process caused yet more price increases and more shops closing down. Nowadays, they don't even care anymore, they are using their comics as a way to test out concepts for other media. The result, with so many shops closing down, the remaining ones became a niche thing with cover prices so high that kids aren't likely to find one nor be able to afford the comics. When I was a teen, I could buy five to six comics with 100 of my local currency. Nowadays I can at most get 1, unless it is a Marvel title, because I can't afford a single Marvel title with that amount of money.

DC is not without fault here, tough most of their stupid decisions are the result of doing damage control every time Marvel screws up. New 52 takes the cake here, as it really really destroyed the local industry in my country. Before that, local made comics had begun to slowly colonize the newstands and grow little by little, but with the new initiative, newstands suddenly needed 13 spots each week for DC comics, so all local production beyond the eternal Tijuana bibles and reprints of the old classics stopped. And since new 52 didn't sell that well, the net result was a contraction of the industry. At least it was a good stopping point that made me stop caring for how the Conner-Cass-Tim triangle was going to solve itself.
 


Remove ads

Top