I'm saying there's a difference between "X has been done to you", and "He might do X to you".
-Hyp.
For me the difference with a fighters marking is, he might do X to you because he did Y to you. You know of the might X because he did the Y.
I think the might happen since it is dependent on the mark is supposed to represent the effect that someone is having a harder time shifting past the fighter without creating an opening. They know they have a harder time getting past the fighter without creating an opening.
For me it would be like saying the adventurer does not know that running across the 1 inch wide beam is harder than running across the 2ft wide beam, since falling to your death is an effect that could happen but has not happened yet.