5E My biggest gripe with 5e design

jayoungr

Adventurer
So I'm confused. When you drop to 0 hp, do you have a 40% or a 10% chance of dying, assuming you're just making straight rolls with no further effects?

Also, would shifting the number needed for success from 10 to 11 make the odds 50-50?
 

Ashrym

Hero
So I'm confused. When you drop to 0 hp, do you have a 40% or a 10% chance of dying, assuming you're just making straight rolls with no further effects?

Also, would shifting the number needed for success from 10 to 11 make the odds 50-50?
Those percentages look like they are consecutive fails instead of total fails to get ~11%. I didn't check the math but I'm more inclined to go with ~40% chance of failing 3 checks not in a row.
 

Ovinomancer

No flips for you!
Why do all that if you don't give the final result of death saves? I don't know if your set-up will work or not, but for anyone who wants to know the percentages they are (close to what @Ruin Explorer said):

DEATH: 11.683375%
LIVE: 88.316625%

So, @jayoungr , unfortunately is is not even close to 50-50. :(
This seems wrong at fitst glance, so I did math.

Crit Failure (CF): 5%
Failure (F): 45%
Success (S): 50%
Crit Success (CS): 5%

Consider only cases where you die:
Rnd 1 - no path to death -- 0%

Rnd 2:
CF×F -- this can happen 2 ways, as CF - F and F - CF. Chance od death: 4.5%

Rnd 3:
CF×F×S -- 4 cases
3F-- 1 case
Chance: 13.6%

Rnd 4:
CF×F×2F - 4 cases
S×3F- 3 cases
Death: 15.9%

Rnd 5:
2S×3F - 6 cases
Death: 13.7%

Round by round the chance if death is higher than what you figured. Cumulative chance is 43.1%, not close to 10%.

Edit: it's slightly lower because I didn't account for a round 1 crit success. Ballpark is 95% of the cumulative or 41%
 

NotAYakk

Adventurer
So I'm confused. When you drop to 0 hp, do you have a 40% or a 10% chance of dying, assuming you're just making straight rolls with no further effects?
You have a 40% chance of dying, a 18% chance of getting up within a few rounds, and a 42% chance of stabilizing and waking up a long time later (without intervention).
Also, would shifting the number needed for success from 10 to 11 make the odds 50-50?
No, there are 3 possibilities, it cannot be 50-50.

Even if you group "wake yourself up" with "stabilize", it won't be 50-50 because the situation remains slightly asymmetrical (1s don't instant die, while 20s instant recover). But it would be close.
 

Lanefan

Victoria Rules
This seems wrong at fitst glance, so I did math.

Crit Failure (CF): 5%
Failure (F): 45%
Success (S): 50%
Crit Success (CS): 5%
Sorry, but this also seems wrong at first glance as the above percentages add up to 105. You've given ordinary failure 5% too much.

Crit fail = 1 thus one side of the d20 thus 5%
Fail = 2 to 9 thus 8 sides of the d20 thus 40%
Success = 10 to 19 thus 10 sides of the d20 thus 50%
Crit success = 20 thus 1 side of the d20 thus 5%

The chance of dying is therefore a bit lower overall than your analysis suggests (though I don't know the math required to figure out what it actually is).
 

Ovinomancer

No flips for you!
Sorry, but this also seems wrong at first glance as the above percentages add up to 105. You've given ordinary failure 5% too much.

Crit fail = 1 thus one side of the d20 thus 5%
Fail = 2 to 9 thus 8 sides of the d20 thus 40%
Success = 10 to 19 thus 10 sides of the d20 thus 50%
Crit success = 20 thus 1 side of the d20 thus 5%

The chance of dying is therefore a bit lower overall than your analysis suggests (though I don't know the math required to figure out what it actually is).
You're right, typo. I used 40 and 45 for tge math. Good catch.
 

dnd4vr

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!
My two gripes with 5e are 1) the death issue; I feel like it is too easy for PCs to stay alive. I would prefer that when you hit 0 hit points, you have X rounds and then you're dead. As it is, the odds are that you are going to stabilize without help.
Hey @Jd Smith1 . So, a variant for death saves is to change the DC to 15 instead of 10. This decreases the chance to self-stabilize from about 60% to only 25% or so. You can further modify it to use the CON modifier to the roll. After all, someone with a CON 20 would logically be in better physical shape than someone with a CON 6 or so and have a better chance to stabilize. FWIW, a CON 20 with the +5 mod adjusting the roll would go back to the normal 60% stabilize rate.

Here's the table showing the percentage based on a CON mod applied to the DC 15 idea:
1575001840966.png


I'll probably suggest adopting this at our own table. Now, the odds you'll stabilize without help is only better than 50/50 if you have a CON 18 or better.
 

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