Those percentages look like they are consecutive fails instead of total fails to get ~11%. I didn't check the math but I'm more inclined to go with ~40% chance of failing 3 checks not in a row.So I'm confused. When you drop to 0 hp, do you have a 40% or a 10% chance of dying, assuming you're just making straight rolls with no further effects?
Also, would shifting the number needed for success from 10 to 11 make the odds 50-50?
This seems wrong at fitst glance, so I did math.Why do all that if you don't give the final result of death saves? I don't know if your set-up will work or not, but for anyone who wants to know the percentages they are (close to what @Ruin Explorer said):
DEATH: 11.683375%
LIVE: 88.316625%
So, @jayoungr , unfortunately is is not even close to 50-50.
That makes much more sense.Those percentages look like they are consecutive fails instead of total fails to get ~11%.
You have a 40% chance of dying, a 18% chance of getting up within a few rounds, and a 42% chance of stabilizing and waking up a long time later (without intervention).So I'm confused. When you drop to 0 hp, do you have a 40% or a 10% chance of dying, assuming you're just making straight rolls with no further effects?
No, there are 3 possibilities, it cannot be 50-50.Also, would shifting the number needed for success from 10 to 11 make the odds 50-50?
Sorry, but this also seems wrong at first glance as the above percentages add up to 105. You've given ordinary failure 5% too much.This seems wrong at fitst glance, so I did math.
Crit Failure (CF): 5%
Failure (F): 45%
Success (S): 50%
Crit Success (CS): 5%
You're right, typo. I used 40 and 45 for tge math. Good catch.Sorry, but this also seems wrong at first glance as the above percentages add up to 105. You've given ordinary failure 5% too much.
Crit fail = 1 thus one side of the d20 thus 5%
Fail = 2 to 9 thus 8 sides of the d20 thus 40%
Success = 10 to 19 thus 10 sides of the d20 thus 50%
Crit success = 20 thus 1 side of the d20 thus 5%
The chance of dying is therefore a bit lower overall than your analysis suggests (though I don't know the math required to figure out what it actually is).
Hey @Jd Smith1 . So, a variant for death saves is to change the DC to 15 instead of 10. This decreases the chance to self-stabilize from about 60% to only 25% or so. You can further modify it to use the CON modifier to the roll. After all, someone with a CON 20 would logically be in better physical shape than someone with a CON 6 or so and have a better chance to stabilize. FWIW, a CON 20 with the +5 mod adjusting the roll would go back to the normal 60% stabilize rate.My two gripes with 5e are 1) the death issue; I feel like it is too easy for PCs to stay alive. I would prefer that when you hit 0 hit points, you have X rounds and then you're dead. As it is, the odds are that you are going to stabilize without help.