Need a statistic major's help here...

MerakSpielman said:
But you're forgetting the theory of molecular compaction, which teaches us that if you tap a d20 (or any die) repeatedly on the table with your desired result face-up, you are more likely to roll that number because the molecules are more compact now on the bottom of that die, therefor heavier, and more likely to end up on the bottem when rolled again.

:D

You know, it is VERY funny that you mention this. I have a few players I game with that do this very exact thing. As a spoof of course, hehe. But still, it is funny that you mention it.
 

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Ridley's Cohort said:
I have another explanation...

Suppose you took your "d100" die, and renumbered all the numbers 1-25 as '1', 26-50 as '2', 51-75 as '3', 76-00 as '4', wouldn't that be the "same" as a d4?
But then you wouldn't be able to tell your d4 from your d100, and would fail a LOT of percent checks.

You could put BOTH numbers on each face of the die, in different colors... then you could use your d100 for d4 OR d%. Heck, let's get a great big d100... put the numbers 1 thru 4 on all the faces in a new color (evenly distributed, of course)... then all the numbers 1 thru 10 in a different color... then 1 thru 20... keep this up, and you only have to roll one die for any check! Just choose the number color that appropriate for the kind of roll you needed.

I haven't figured out how to get a d8 or d12 on this one, though. Maybe we need a d200... no, that won't work... d600?

This die is getting pretty big. And is rapidly approaching spherical.

:p

-AK
 

I have a question.

The average of 3d4 + 6 is 13.5
The average of 5d4 + 6 is 18.5

But what would the average be for 5d4 + 6 is the lowest two d4s were dropped?

How would you determine said average?
 


Thanks. That makes sense (somehow) but any info on how that actually works out?

Or is it too complex/detailed/hard for you to bother typing it out (or for me to understand)?
 

Dropping dies is *really* difficult to figure out manually through mathematics. Believe me, a friend of mine got his Masters in math and he'll lose you 5 seconds into the conversation. The way I do it (as befits my occupation) is to write a quick and dirty C program to simply roll the stated die combination 10,000 times and get the average. Nice thing is, it can also show your chances of getting any specific number as well, and you can change all the variables on the fly so you can get the answer to any specific question in a matter of 10 seconds. ... of course I'm not sure where that program is right now, but I'm sure I could re-write it fairly quickly.

-The Souljourner
 
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Caliber said:
Thanks. That makes sense (somehow) but any info on how that actually works out?

Or is it too complex/detailed/hard for you to bother typing it out (or for me to understand)?

As mentioned above, it's really hard to do by hand. I just made Excel do it with a few quick formulae -- there are just over a thousand possiblities (2^10), so it wasn't difficult.
 

What people said before are right.

You can substitute different dice rolling techniques as long as they have the same probability distribution.

Rolling a d4 is equivalent to rolling 1-25 on d% because the probability distribution is the same (again, assuming it is fair).

Your argument that d4 and rolling 1-25 on d% are different is valid only if one or more dice are not fair (have an equal probability of landing on any of its sides). If that is true, then yes, the probabilities will be slightly different, but in a way that it difficult to measure. If any die is not fair, the all of this goes out the window and you really cannot compute actual probabilities or say which is better unless you have mathematical data that describes exactly how much more likely one side will come up with another, and that just isn't practical in this situation.

In fact, no die is perfectly fair. The grooves where the numbers are on each side are certainly not the same size (or if the numbers are painted on, the amount of paint for each will not be the same. The 20 side should weigh less than the 1 side on dice with carved numbers since more material is carved out of it. But the difference is so small that it is not noticeable and can be disregarded from the probability calculations.

On a very fine level, your analysis that two dice could make a very slight difference as opposed to one is correct, but the difference in probability is also negligible. Basically, you are making this factor much more important than it really is.

The moral of the story is that a d4 is just as good as a d% in practical use, as long as the player is rolling each properly (for example, tossing the d4 and giving it a noticeable twist instead of just letting the d4 slide out of your hand and fall on the table). If you are seeing a big problem with the d4 giving extremely skewed results even after many rolls, then test it yourself, correct the player's rolling method, or ask them to use a new die.

Th DMs word is always final, but if you are trying to argue that there is a significant difference in probability of rolling d4 versus 1-25 on d%, then you are incorrect because there is not (the differences are negligible unless the die is really grossly unfair, in which case, you shouldn't be using them anyway).


Jason.

(Not a Statistics/Probability major, but had 12 credits in Statistics/Probabiliy in college at Penn State.)

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Actually, if it were possible that you could hold the same die the same way every time and applied force to the die exactly the same way every time you threw it, you should get exactly the same result on the die every time. It is because humans cannot do this that a die is "random" in the first place.
 

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