Wow. Don't get me wrong, I love statistics and math as much as the next geek, but all of these calculations are happening in a vacuum. What is going on in the battle while the person is on the floor having X% chance of stabilizing, dying, or recovering?
The party has lost 1/4 - 1/6 of its firepower. Given that encounter balance in 4E hinges on the baseline of one level appropriate creature per PC, the balance of the encounter has just been shifted. If most of the monsters are dead, finishing the battle might be a priority but it will also be a lot easier to get the unconscious guy up and healthy. If most of the beasties are still alive, the danger of losing a character for any portion of the fight is more substantial, but it will also probably be harder to raise the guy up again. The guy on the ground fills a role in the party and teamwork is supposed to be a big deal in 4E. So what role was just vacated by the downed member? Is the party functioning without a defender now? A leader? It is supposedly very difficult or impossible to return from the dead during the heroic tier and much easier at epic tier. What level is the party playing at? Will someone be losing a character forever or will the guy just wander back from the Shadowfell in a few hours? Are the monsters in battle the sort who will finish off a downed opponent? Hold the opponent hostage (surrender or I gut him)? If the fight is going poorly and the party is already thinking about retreat, will they leave their ally in the hands of the enemy? If the party is deep in enemy territory and miles from a safe zone, can they afford to risk losing a member permanently?
And finally: how do the various players play? Do they view character death as something to be avoided at all cost or are they more casual about rolling up new characters?
In short: the statistical likelihood of a character living or dying does not take into account the consequences of leaving the guy on the ground, trying to stand him up again, or the risk of letting him die. In 3.5, the decision was a lot more rote for a number of reasons (retreat was often not a viable option, there was a definite timer on death, coup de grace was a full-round action and often not worth wasting an enemy round on especially given the baseline encounter was one monster vs. the party, and standing the guy up only made him more likely to go down again or die), but I suspect that the 4E decision will be much more situational.
The party has lost 1/4 - 1/6 of its firepower. Given that encounter balance in 4E hinges on the baseline of one level appropriate creature per PC, the balance of the encounter has just been shifted. If most of the monsters are dead, finishing the battle might be a priority but it will also be a lot easier to get the unconscious guy up and healthy. If most of the beasties are still alive, the danger of losing a character for any portion of the fight is more substantial, but it will also probably be harder to raise the guy up again. The guy on the ground fills a role in the party and teamwork is supposed to be a big deal in 4E. So what role was just vacated by the downed member? Is the party functioning without a defender now? A leader? It is supposedly very difficult or impossible to return from the dead during the heroic tier and much easier at epic tier. What level is the party playing at? Will someone be losing a character forever or will the guy just wander back from the Shadowfell in a few hours? Are the monsters in battle the sort who will finish off a downed opponent? Hold the opponent hostage (surrender or I gut him)? If the fight is going poorly and the party is already thinking about retreat, will they leave their ally in the hands of the enemy? If the party is deep in enemy territory and miles from a safe zone, can they afford to risk losing a member permanently?
And finally: how do the various players play? Do they view character death as something to be avoided at all cost or are they more casual about rolling up new characters?
In short: the statistical likelihood of a character living or dying does not take into account the consequences of leaving the guy on the ground, trying to stand him up again, or the risk of letting him die. In 3.5, the decision was a lot more rote for a number of reasons (retreat was often not a viable option, there was a definite timer on death, coup de grace was a full-round action and often not worth wasting an enemy round on especially given the baseline encounter was one monster vs. the party, and standing the guy up only made him more likely to go down again or die), but I suspect that the 4E decision will be much more situational.
I haven't used Markov Chains much.
