I guess I should clarify my early post. I'm not trying to insinuate that Wizards is wrong for limiting their gaming license nor do I believe that they haven't weighed the relative advantages and disadvantages of the OGL. I am simply pointing out that there definitely
were advantages, in my own opinion.
Morrus said:
That's an interesting view; clearly WotC believes otherwise. Where do you derive the conclusion that the OGL is what made D&D the big dog - as opposed to, say, ownership of the established brand name combined with far greater resouces?
I don't doubt the impact of having an established brand name and resources, nor did I intend to imply that those wouldn't factor into their market share. The fact that many other game designers were actively promoting their line for them couldn't have hurt though. I don't think you or I or even Wizards of the Coast's head honchos can truly attribute their success to any one factor. We can, at best, make estimates based on our own observations.
Morrus said:
To be fair, there are hundreds of those despite that.
Absolutely. But there is really no system that I am aware of that attempts to do exactly what D&D does. The majority attempt to fill a niche that isn't yet filled by a major gaming system. No one has
seriously tried making a game for that specific genre (mid-high fantasy) and that specific style (primarily dungeon crawl and linear adventure), because it was easier to just make a campaign setting or adventure module using the d20 Open Content and call it a day. If its no longer easier to play by their rules (both literally and figuratively), someone may actually be crazy enough to develop a serious competitor to D&D and challenge their market share. I don't know how well it would go over, but it appears as though Paizo is tentatively stepping up to the plate with the possibility of a "3.75". Maybe others will do the same. No way to tell for sure.
Morrus said:
I think it matters more than you do!
Meh. Blizzard was a latecomer to the videogaming market. Marvel Comics was a latecomer to the comicbook market. Google was a latecomer to the search engine market. They did alright for themselves. Talent sells. Right now a lot of the talent, even if they aren't working
for Wizards of the Coast is still working for Wizards of the Coast. I am hardly predicting an apocalypse on WotC's horizon. Rather, I am stating the possibility that their actions will create more competitors: possibly more serious competitors. Honestly, I am sure that this is something that was considered by people at all levels of Wizards of the Coast when the new GSL was drafted. Its simply a risk they were willing to take.
Morrus said:
I agree it would be nice; I strongly dispute your assertion that it's necessary for them to maintain their massive market share.
I didn't say that it was necessary. The only thing necessary to maintain a massive market share is making a good game that people like to play. They could do it without anyone at all if they wanted, and I don't doubt that they would still do very well for themselves. I am simply saying that if they make it too hard to work with them they will more than likely find people on the other side of the fence. Even this isn't necessarily a bad thing for Wizards of the Coast, since any growth in the roleplaying industry tends to lift everyone involved. More variety in game lines could attract a bigger crowd.
Keep in mind, I am not even saying it will cost Wizards anything. There is the possibility that if people step out of Wizards shadow, the whole industry will grow in ways that attract new players and a larger market. Personally, I don't mind a little bit of fracturing in the market. It could push everyone involved to new heights. There's a lot of speculation at this point, and only time will tell how it turns out.
As for me personally, I fully plan on supporting 4e when it comes to my own publishing endeavors. I have a good working relationship with Wizards of the Coast and have put a lot of work put into a setting for 4e. I have also begun to lay the groundwork for a game that I hope will be viable under the non-fantasy d20 OGL. If it is not possible under that OGL, I already have another system on the backburner that I am willing to run with to make it happen. I'm willing to be pretty flexible, and hopefully it works. If not, its still getting published.