der_kluge said:
But aren't you making a gross assumption here? That Green Ronin can't re-release Freeport and Mutants and Masterminds (help me out here, GR did product M&M, right?) under the new 4th edition license?
Imagine, revised, re-released versions of those products with expanded, streamlined rules, more art, higher production values, yadda yadda. I'm not saying that will happen, but it could. Obviously depending on WoTC allows.
Mutants & Masterminds 4th edition could be twice as cool and awesome as the one we have now. You simply do not know.
Well, besides that the 4e system, from what we see, is only half as cool as 3e, and M&M isn't a collectible minis game like 4e is, here's the deal.
Freeport is a d20 line. They could GSL that and release under 4e - with the details that they just released products like the d20 Freeport Companion about a month ago, so they'd have to dump it fast and take a huge loss. But of course they couldn't do that without doing M&M (and True20) at the exact same time, since "no mixing of GSL and OGL."
Mutants & Masterminds is an OGL line, which is d20 influenced but not based. WotC has been pretty clear that the D&D 4E GSL is not for that; it's for D&D products. But they did talk about in the future a "d20 GSL" that could allow people to create non-fantasy games with the D&D rules, so that's a possiblity. See
http://mxyzplk.wordpress.com/2008/04/19/open-gaming-for-dummies/ for your briefing.
But - it's a large line with many products, and in fact there's a "M&M Superlink" licensing that means that a large number of other 3p companies are also publishing M&M products. Every one of these would have to either update or "die". You'll notice how few D&D products went to the trouble of updating for 3.5e - too much work, it wasn't good business sense,the costs are high and sales are low. There's no feasible way to phase out this game line for a hard start of a 4e-based one without taking a huge bath - "burning" backstock, taking a long transition period where sales dips...
I guarantee you WotC isn't burning their backstock, and Linae's comments notwithstanding they'll be selling 3.5e books to distributors long after 4e comes out. And they had to weather the last year of poor sales in the version interim (talk to any game store owner to hear about the impact), but they're large and part of Hasbro, so book sales and the corporate mothership float them on through.
A lot of this is business basics - you can't wave a magic wand and upgrade, not in the real world. Even Microsoft, who would like nothing better than to pretend nothing but Vista ever existed, can't do it.