D&D (2024) New leak looks real bad

[mamba]

I'm just providing a range, depending upon how many people subscribe. I have no idea what is realistic, but obviously WotC will be going for as many as possible.

no they are not, and this is not how this works anyway. You would go for maximum profit, not maximum number of sales, and price accordingly.

As to your numbers, I have no idea where you get the 50M players from. DDB has 13M registered users, no idea how many play D&D, from what I hear about double that. No idea how many of those are active, no idea how many of those pay for any subscription level now. I’d wager it is no more than 3-4M though.

If 2% of 4M go for the highest tier, you are at 80k. Your 100k already feels like the maximum possible for that tier

I'm not sure 5 million is unrealistic, as far as long-term plans.

well, I am

Again, there are supposedly 50 million players - so that's 10%. What if a few years from now there are 100 million?

15-20M, at the rate things are going

 

[Clint_L]

I don't think there is any point in discussing numbers without a lot more information. Like any other purchase, folks will wait to see what is being offered. If it is a terrible deal, then uptake will be terrible. If it is a great deal, then uptake will be great. Right now we don't know:

1. What is being offered
2. What the different tiers will offer and what each tier will cost
3. Whether it is possible to share, as with the current master tier

Let alone anything about their customer base and the projected numbers of subscribers being offered for each tier.

Right now, I am most interested in:

1. The VTT. For me to buy into that it would have to be both a good deal and super easy to use; way easier than Roll 20.

2. An AI Dungeon Master. For those who think this is far-fetched, I suggest you spend some time seeing what ChatGPT can already do. Comparisons to Zork are not even remotely apt (also, Zork was amazing).

 

[Mallus]

Also a good time to remember that DnD Shorts has been 100% accurate so far when it comes to D&Done/OGL leaks.

Twice the monthly charge for Warcraft or HBO. A third more than the most expensive Netflix tier.

Does that really sound credible to you?

 

[eyeheartawk]

Twice the monthly charge for Warcraft or HBO. A third more than the most expensive Netflix tier.

Does that really sound credible to you?

No, but just because the leak didn't state that you'd have to pay extra to display the VTT in 4K. Because, without that the comparison can't really be valid right?

This is just a reminder that in the year of our lord 2023 Netflix is still out here charging extra to stream 4K.

 

[Minigiant]

Thirty is more than every major MMO out there. It's more than subs to any streaming service except for Amazon Prime (and Prime gets you a boatload of other features). These are some Diablo Immortal-level prices.

I don't doubt this price point was floated at one point, but I seriously doubt that it will be offered up now.

Thirty is high. But it seems okay for an "All things unlocked" tier if One D&D actually offers a ton of variant rules and does new monthly VTT models.

 

[tetrasodium]

Locking out homebrew content at the lower (lowest?) tiers just seems stupid to me. I mean, I get it; they want to incentivize people signing up for the more expensive plans, but you should do that via "here's some great stuff you get"-style options (which I suppose is what the monthly content drops are supposed to be) rather than "at this price plan, it stops sucking so much!"

Between the standardization via no homebrew content, and the AI DM, it's basically a video game. At least this time the WoW comparisons won't draw so much pushback (I hope).

Agreed in that it's incredibly short sighted & reeks of a failure to understand the market. As a GM I ban DDB sheets for my players* because it's such a disruption dealing with players trying to interact with it from their phone or being forced to GM around things it doesn't dolike containers till very recently"no homebrew content" would make it super easy to ban, just give custom magic items and shrug when the foot dragging & wheedling starts.

* Even for ones who pay for it

 

[Yaarel]

which I remain skeptical of

What part of Hasbro-WotC planning a fee of $30 per month, is difficult to believe?

 

[mamba]

I'm sorry. At a certain point, D&D fans have to spend money. Everything can be free. Not just for WOTC but 3rd party publishers. I mean this whole disaster happened because Hasbro finally looked at D&D, realized at a table of 5 people only 2 of them were spending money, and went "how do I snatch money out the other 3?"

more like ‘what, that is two more than acceptable’

 

[Yaarel]

Turning D&D into a MMO feels silly, as… we already have MMOs.

Apparently MMOs are their way to try monetize the under-monetized "players". Hasbro-WotC views the DMs as the main customers but a minority, and want to suck money from the players who are the majority.

 

[J.Quondam]

If nothing else, it gives us an idea what AI DMs are charging for their services nowadays.
Waiting for them to unionize....