Darth K'Trava said:
It seems from previous experiences to try to steer AWAY from Heisman Trophy winners/nominees as they usually pan out when they go pro....
Hmm...
2004 Matt Leinart Southern California QB -- still in college, expected to be #1 overall draft pick next year (would have been this year)
2003 Jason White Oklahoma QB -- didn't make the NFL; won the award mostly as biggest-name player on team that was #1 for most of season
2002 Carson Palmer Southern California QB -- starting QB for Bengals; pretty good for a second-year QB
2001 Eric Crouch Nebraska QB -- didn't make the NFL; won a lifetime achievement award; was an option QB who couldn't pass
2000 Chris Weinke Florida State QB -- backup QB in Carolina; was 25 when he won the award; Drew Brees should have won
1999 Ron Dayne Wisconsin RB -- career backup RB; won a lifetime achievement award
1998 Ricky Williams Texas RB -- had a few great seasons but also had drug problems; Donovan McNabb should have won
1997 Charles Woodson Michigan DB/WR -- consideered a top DB talent with work ethic issues
1996 Danny Wuerffel Florida QB -- career backup QB
1995 Eddie George, Ohio St., RB -- pretty good RB for a long time, probably overused
1994 Rashaan Salaam, Colorado, RB -- didn't last long; Steve McNair should have won
So of the last ten Heisman winners, there were three complete washouts (Salaam, Crouch, and White), two of which were quite predictable (Crouch was drafted in the middle rounds as a receiver; White wasn't drafted at all). There's one arguable great player (George) and two other starters (Woodson, Palmer), one of which hasn't played long enough to establish his level in the NFL (Palmer). One talented player flamed out due to drug problems (Ricky Williams). And three career backups (Wuerffel, Dayne, Weinke). And one who hasn't gone pro yet, but would likely be starting for the 49ers if he had chosen to (Leinart).
It's worth noting that the Heisman winners that have been successful are, with the exception of Salaam, the only ones who weren't considered "system products" coming out of college. Oklahoma under Bob Stoops, like Florida under Spurrier and FSU when they have any kind of QB talent, tended to go pass-wacky. And Crouch, unlike some other option QBs (Vick and McNabb, most notably), never got a chance to play QB in the NFL (probably because he's an even worse passer than Vick), and unlike Matt Jones or Antwaan Randle-El, he was never enthusiastic about moving to wide reciever. Wisconsin under Alvarez has had huge linemen and a heavily run-oriented offense.
I don't know if that's better or worse than first-round picks in general (and some of thse guys weren't first round picks).