If youve taken an arrow to the knee, combat has already started, initiative has been rolled, and someone has already taken a turn.
Agreed, but if you don't 'notice a threat', then you don't know combat has started so are surprised. Usually, getting hit is enough of a clue!
No, it doesnt matter if he has the skulker feat and hit. You see him in that case.
I wasn't clear enough, in the Skulker case, if the shot missed and the target is blind/deaf, there is no reason that the target knows that he is in combat.
Common example:
A lone Orc (who is hiding behind a boulder) declares he will charge a Wizard PC (who is 10' away). This initiates combat and initiative is rolled.
If the PC wins initiative (and the Orc loses) it is narrated thus: 'You see an Orc leap from behind a boulder, running at you with axe in hand and screaming a ferocious warcry. You are surprised and cant act on your turn' (this remains the case even though the Orc has yet to have his first turn. Remember, the Orc has already declared and started performing his action (this is what triggered the combat sequence); he is already started moving). On the Orcs turn, it closes the distance and attacks the Wizard (or possibly even changes what it wants to do, which is then narrated accordingly).
This ceases to be as much of an issue if the Orc wins initiative. In that case you narrate it as "You see an Orc leap up from behind a boulder, running at you with axe in hand and screaming a ferocious warcry. Befor you can react, he closes the distance and attacks' (resolves attack)'
All well and good.
Next example: the wizard is at home, deeply engrossed in some grimoire. An assassin attempts to sneak up from behind, and shoot an arrow, trying to, y'know, assassinate the wizard.
The Stealth/Perception contest results in a win for the assassin; he remains undetected by the wizard.
As soon as the assassin declares that he is shooting the wizard, initiative is rolled. This models the reaction speed of all the participants. It does
not model whether or not the wizard
perceives the assassin, the arrow or that combat has begun; he has not noticed a threat, and his reaction speed doesn't come into it.
The wizard rolls a higher initiative. His reaction will be faster than the assassin, but the wizard still hasn't noticed anything to react
to.
Before the wizard's initiative, he cannot use reactions.
During his initiative, he cannot move or act because he is surprised.
After his initiative but before the assassin's, the wizard is
able to react, but there is nothing to react
to.
On the assassin's initiative, he shoots an invisible silenced arrow from hidden, but he misses. The Skulker feat means that he remains hidden, and the invisible, silenced arrow arcs through a window into the night, disturbing nothing.
The wizard is still not aware of a threat. How could he be? For him, nothing has happened because he did not notice the assassin, the arrow OR any threat.
Casting
shield is a reaction, and it represents throwing up a shield at the last moment, turning what
would have been a hit into a miss instead.
Even though the wizard can use reactions, this does not give him the ability to react to things he doesn't know about. He hasn't noticed the arrow, so he can't put up a
shield in response to an un-perceived trigger.