philreed said:
I'm in the camp that feels 4e will not be OGL. If the OGL had actually worked to WotC's benefit, the way they expected it to, it would be more likely that they keep it. As it is I don't think they have any reason to continue to release under the OGL.
I wouldn't doubt 4e being Closed, but it seems mostly publishers saying it, so it's hard to say it's an unbiased opinion.
Will 4e be closed? who knows, we won't even be able to accurately predict WHO will be in charge when it rolls around, so there's no way to judge. Also, I don't think current WotC hates the OGL that much, since they're still pretty easy going with it. If they were hostile to the idea, they could seriously harm a lot of companies, IMO.
I think the "rush of supplements" helped 3e greatly, but not because WotC didn't have to publish, but more because they didn't have to publish them right away. Within a year of the 3e set hitting, there were numerous adventures and supplements, and WotC could sit back and crank out anything they wanted at their own speed. With 3.5 they've come into a steady release schedule.
I'd wager that the presence of the supplements may have improved WotC's sales of Core's, while at the same time not really harming their later supplements. They can make whatever book they want right now, without worrying explaining why they haven't done X yet.
And I doubt dropping the OGL would have any impact on 4e.
It's a different example, but take Shadowrun 3rd edition as an example. It took so long for the supplements to come out, it seriously hurt interest in the game for a lot of us. With a closed 4e, people would be looking at the release schedule with a sense of waiting for the core stuff to be published, waiting on new material.
With an open system, it gives WotC more room.