OT: SARS - Should we be worried?

[Eternalknight]

Just out of curiosity, because I really don't know the answer to this, how many people does the flu kill every year? Granted, when the flu kills, it takes an existing problem and causes complications that end up being fatal, but how do the numbers compare?

I don't know, but I have the flu right now and I wish I was dead, I feel that bad lol

 

[mythusmage]

Re: mmmmm

In Africa 3000 people each day die of Malaria alone. I think what makes this so suddenly newsworthy is that this is threatening western health systems. Not many people have given a damn about africa up to now and I would feel extremely hypocritical getting worked up about a disease which western medecine can control quite well.
If it does end up killing a load of us who cares anyway , us in the west have had a damn good run for our money with our nice lifestyles, maybe we could do with a wake up call to how bad life can get.

True, as far as it goes (my emphasis). However, you need to consider the resources needed to treat cases of the disease, and to remember that not every country has those resources.

Viral pneumonia of any kind requires serious, in hospital care. SARS produces a rather nasty type of pneumonia, and is relatively easy to spread. In Hong Kong and Toronto health workers have come down with SARS, even with precautions.

At present I recommend the following.

1. Don't panic. It wastes your time, energy, and makes you miss your favorite TV show.

2. Clean up after yourself. And demand that public facilities get cleaned up on a timely basis. (We could see public filthiness becoming a criminal offense.)

3. Never go to work sick. Even if all your symptoms clear up, stay home. (I'd love to see employers who insist on their workers coming in sick charged with endangering the public health.)

4. Plan for the worst, hope for the best, and pray we never reach a day when killing some clod who refuses to cover up his coughing becomes justifiable homicide.

 

[Eternalknight]

This is beginning to feel like an episode of the Burning Zone.

Are there any Canadians here? How do they feel about Toronto being one of the 'hot spots'?

 

[mythusmage]

Statistically, your chances of contracting SARS are on par with winning the lottery. And your chances of dying from it once you've contracted it are fairly small, too - about the chance of you being the first person picked out of a hat in one of your high school classes.

Here is a beautiful example of the misuse of statistics. About 4,000 out of 6 billion have come down with SARS so far (my emphasis). As I've said before, and will keep repeating until it penetrates certain skulls, it's just starting.

If you have no contact at all with any SARS victims, your chance of getting it is effectively zero. The more contact you have with SARS victims, the greater your chance of getting it. The chance of getting hit by lightning, regardless of local conditions, depends pretty much on pure bad luck. The chance of getting SARS depends on who you associate with, your general state of health, and length of exposure.

San Diego County has had two verified cases so far. Both were people traveling from East Asia. So far nobody has come down with SARS locally. But, SARS has about a two week incubation period, and the first victim (who survived) flew in on a commercial flight about a week ago.

About a century ago the wisdom was that cars would always be a rich man's toy. New things never work out as you think they will. I hope my pessimism proves errant, but I'm also afraid some folk's optimism will also prove to be mistaken.

Remember, nobody will ever need more that 64k of RAM.

 

[Angcuru]

And your chances of dying from it once you've contracted it are fairly small, too - about the chance of you being the first person picked out of a hat in one of your high school classes.

ALRIGHT! Only 2%!
I hate New Jersey.
Overcrowded peice of crap grumble, grumble...

 

[Uzumaki]

ALRIGHT! Only 2%!
I hate New Jersey.
Overcrowded peice of crap grumble, grumble...

Says the guy who wants to know why he shouldn't adopt.

Emphasis mine.

 

[Darrin Drader]

Statistically, your chances of contracting SARS are on par with winning the lottery. And your chances of dying from it once you've contracted it are fairly small, too - about the chance of you being the first person picked out of a hat in one of your high school classes.
[/B]

And can one say the same thing about getting a common cold? I don't know about you, but I know very few people that don't catch colds. SARS is the same type of virus, so if this does get bigger, it might just be a matter of time before it hits every year like the common cold. The one thing we don't know yet is whether or not the survivors will be able to fight it off more effectively when they get it again.

 

[Ulrick]

I see it this way. It's something that I can't control--the best thing I can do is continue to wash my hands and practice good hygene.

Now, I won't live this life in fear over something I can't control. I believe that 80% of what happens to us is within our control--20% is outside of out control. Don't worry about that 20%.

In this case, I think the only time I'll be afraid if it turns out to be that superflu in Stephen King's "The Stand."

You understand what I'm talking about if you've read the book or seen the movie.

 

[Eternalknight]

You understand what I'm talking about if you've read the book or seen the movie.

Now that would be quite scary. Let's hope nothing like that ever happens.

 

[Eosin the Red]

Just out of curiosity, because I really don't know the answer to this, how many people does the flu kill every year? Granted, when the flu kills, it takes an existing problem and causes complications that end up being fatal, but how do the numbers compare?

Varies but usually well over 20,000. Some of the BIGGIES have gotten up over a million. These figures are for the US alone - that is not a worldwide figure, I doubt that there are any reliable WW numbers. I use flu numbers to give people a wake up check when they have been watching too much "Fair and Balanced."

This is the news fad of the week - next month it will be West Nile as mosquito season ramps up. SARS is nasty and we do not YET posses a herd immunity so it's first sweep will be fairly impressive (particularly among the immune compromised). After that first sweep, I suspect it will calm down to flu levels - that is what I expect for a worse case scenerio, we could get off much lighter.

I like people talking about odds and medicine - alot of people ask me about odds. My uniform answer is "It does not matter what the odds of getting hit by a metorite are, if you are the person who was hit."

SARS is new and we still don't know much but it does not seem panic worthy at this point. A Prudent and measured responce both from public health and private citizens will go along way in navigating this and the other inevitable new viral illnesses that rise from time to time.

[ADDED It is my understanding that no healthcare worker who was prepared for a SARS patient and who MAINTAINED isolation protocol has been infected. We have not even see it be really virulent among our ED workers - who often do not realize that they are treating a possible SARS (or TB) patient until then event has come and gone.

SARS in not a cold virus. Cold is rhino - SARS is corona. Corona until very recently was not believeed to infect humans. This is part of the concern about it. Lots of misinformation on this thread - speculate away but label it speculation. There really is not much of a need to inflame peoples fear of disease.

Prudent and measured.....