OT: SARS - Should we be worried?

My $1.50

I figured I'd add a bit in here...

I'm not that concerned, because, personally, I don't care.

Now, with that said, let me explain a few things that may have been missed by everyone else...

SARS in viral. A gas mask or a breathing mask will help you about as much as pouring gasoline on yourself to survive a housefire. At best, it makes you look foolish. At worst, it makes you overconfidant, careless, and deadly.

SARS can survive up to 24 hours outside of a host. That means: On a doorknob. On that table at McDonald's you sat down and ate at that some disease ridden slob sneezed on instead of covering his mouth. In the air, where that rude chick coughed in your face at the movie theater line.

This disease is much like the older ones that cropped up, killed everyone slowly, then vanished, because all of the hosts died. Unfortunately, in this era of rapid mass transit, someone who is sick can board a plane, infect 10-15 people around them (God forbid it's a child running up and down the airplane aisle) who then begin to infect people a few days later, and the only tie-in is airline travel.

This stuff is deadly. I've seen many different death toll estimates, some higher, some lower than the 300 death toll rate. Some of the reports are frightening, especially those coming from CDC and WHO.

The difference between this and Malaria? I went to Panama, and was given pills. I didn't catch Malaria. One of the other guys I was with scoffed at the idea of catching a disease most people don't get, and did not take his pills. He got it.
Because he was stupid.
The difference is: Malaria is treatable in nearly all stages, if you get this thing, you are in trouble.

SARS is a corona virus, very few corona viruses can affect humans but all of them that do, are deadly.

SARS has possibly mutated already. Possibly more than once. This could be a problem. One of the big problems with the Bubonic Plague is it had 3 disease vector, 3 different mutations, all of which killed.

This disease makes it so you can't breathe, you the the fun of slowly drowning. Fever is always fun too.

That fever is important, and may make a huge difference in fighting this disease. By installing thermal imagers in airports, security can find whether or not someone is sick.

Finally, my thoughts on the subject:

This thing is risky. It's viral, so our medical system has a difficult time with it. Viruses are much harder ot beat. It likes healthcare workers, meaning that sooner or later, the health-care industry will decide that if you have this disease, you can just lay out in the parking lot and die.
It survives for a nearly ludricous time outside of a host body. That mean Johnny Infected comes in, takes a leak, flushes the urinal, washes his hands, dries his hands with the air drier, and leaves.
Now you come in 2 hours later.
The handle of the urinal, the faucets, and the button on the air dryer could all possibly be contimated.

What changes should this have in your life, once it does (and it will) spread the United States in large numbers?
Well, you can like many people here have advised, and figure your more than likely going to be attacked by killer monkeys riding on the backs of Leather Goddesses, or you can be serious.

1. Don't let idiots cough on you.
2. Don't lick the table at the resturaunt and fast food joint.
3. Use paper towels to turn on faucets or flush the plumbing in public restrooms.
4. If your waiter is sick, refuse to eat the food. SARS or not, having a sick waiter is a danger to public health
5. Wash your hands and you body. Good personal hygiene is very important to avoiding this.

Things to remember that can cause problems:
1. Saying: "I don't have to worry, it has a better chance of the sun rising in the North tommorrow than I do of catching this." That's not only stupid, but carelessness and apathy spreads disease and war both.
2. Thinking you know better than health professionals and going into a quarantined area, figuring you know better. You don't.
3. Comparing this to current or previous diseases is like comparing a Model-T Ford to today's cars. Back then, everyone had one. Nowdays, nobody does. Medicines and a constant pogram of elimination have reduced many diseases to a mere shadow of once they once were.
4. Don't go in to the hospital or clinic everytime you sneeze and have a sore throat. If your that worried about it, look up the symptoms and be aware of those. Panic every time you sneeze will overburden the health-care system, leading to inevitable collapse of the health care industry.
5. Rioting and looting won't get you medicines any faster, and just tear up the supporting services you need.


Now-My thoughts:
This thing is dangerous. It is highly infectous, does not respond well to any current treatments, and is still spreading. That makes it dangerous. This disease, unless it mutates it's way into a never-neverland vector, will be here to stay, and will probably kill a couple hundred every year.
It would have made a hell of a bioweapon
If people continue to flaunt warnings, ignore travel advisories, and state that: "It's just a type of flu, it's not dangerous" then it will quickly become dangerous.
We've been pushing the envelope on a global epidemic for about 30 years, with rapid and cheap air transport. AIDS is a world-wide epidemic, but it can be controlled. That's because nobody dies from AIDS, they die of complications due to AIDS.
Imagine what is going to happen when this disease hits a country with a high (20% or more of the population) AIDS rate. That's a massive sector of the population with a badly damaged immune system. Massive casualties.
Then, if estimates that place this diseases fatality rate between 20-90% are right, think about this.
Go downtown. Count 10 people. At 20%, 2 of those people are dead. Count another 10 (It doesn't matter if you catch someone that you already count, just pretend they've been exposed again), now 2 of those people are dead.

Ehhh, nevermind.
I sincerely doubt that anything I could post here would change anyone's opinion one way or another.
 

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The CDC didn't put a travel advisory on Toronto, so I suspect that WHO is making decisions by committee. I'd trust the CDC over WHO anyday. In any case, the science and medical communities will come up with treatments for SARS that will lower the fatality rate. They're doing some amazing things these days in the fields of genetics and medicine, so it's possible that a vaccine will be engineered in no time. Distribution of aid, on the other hand, is going to be a hot issue.
 


Y'know if it gets to the point where I get infected and death is a 100% probability.....unless I'm having a REAL good time, I'm going on an as*hole-killing spree. WHO'S WITH ME?!:cool:
 

Just going off of the facts that I got from my AP Bio teacher who knows just about everything (Mr. Schoob...you rock so much!) at the current time, SARS really isn't that big of a deals. He found a bunch of numbers about various diseases currently around and SARS is nothing with its... what 5% mortality rate? Denge Fever, called bonebreak fever because of the wracking pains it causes is very easily spread (think West Nile virus) and is knocking right on the door of the U.S.--it's predicted to enter the states in a few years from its current home in the Carribbean. Ebola is very nasty--if you're the first person to get. But the more ebola gets passed from person the person, the less virulent it is, and you're much less likely to die from it. AIDS is by far much more deadly than all of the others, you WILL die from it if it is not vigourously controlled and so many people have it.

But, like P-Kitty said, why worry about something that we can't really change at all--there's enough stress everywhere in today's world.
 

Angcuru said:
Y'know if it gets to the point where I get infected and death is a 100% probability.....unless I'm having a REAL good time, I'm going on an as*hole-killing spree. WHO'S WITH ME?!:cool:


Nothing personal but since there are people out there with that kind of mentality is your joke really all that funny?
 

DocMoriartty said:



Nothing personal but since there are people out there with that kind of mentality is your joke really all that funny?

Apparently you failed your sense motive check. ;) I was being sarcastic/satyrical.
 

Re: My $1.50

Warlord Ralts said:
SARS in viral. A gas mask or a breathing mask will help you about as much as pouring gasoline on yourself to survive a housefire. At best, it makes you look foolish. At worst, it makes you overconfidant, careless, and deadly.

It likes healthcare workers, meaning that sooner or later, the health-care industry will decide that if you have this disease, you can just lay out in the parking lot and die.

It survives for a nearly ludricous time outside of a host body.

Now-My thoughts:
This thing is dangerous. It is highly infectous, does not respond well to any current treatments, and is still spreading. That makes it dangerous. This disease, unless it mutates it's way into a never-neverland vector, will be here to stay, and will probably kill a couple hundred every year.
It would have made a hell of a bioweapon
If people continue to flaunt warnings, ignore travel advisories, and state that: "It's just a type of flu, it's not dangerous" then it will quickly become dangerous.

Then, if estimates that place this diseases fatality rate between 20-90% are right, think about this.

I like most of the stuff you brought up - just a few clarifications.

Hepafilters can get down to very low microns - small enough that they remove viral contaminants. Masks work by decreasing your load exposure, some masks will be better than others but even a paper mask will decrease total load.

Your point on healtcare workers is offensive. I happen to be one. I am indirectly involved in the care of patients (consultation) with SARS and it is possible that I could take care of one in my ICU. You underestimate your local nurses and doctors. I will reiterate for your sake - not ONE healthcare worker who has followed isolation protocol has come down with SARS. It likes careless people in dangerous enviroments.

It survives outside the body for 24 hours - some other types (TB) can survive up to 72 hours. 24 hours is only slightly on the long side.

It is not HIGHLY infectious. It is infectious but it is nowhere near the virulance of a cold. It requires close contact; usually face to face or prolonged close/casual contact.

We do have medicines that work - but not everyone in the world has access to those meds. Antivirals are fairly cutting edge and are currently believed to be at least somewhat effective against the virus.

It would make a lousy bioweapon. Too hard to spread and replicate without mutation. I don't know about distrubution.

That estimate of 20-90% must have come from the national enquirer. They estimate a 30% death toll if small pox ever got loose - and it is the king of nasty stuff. It was probably taken out of context - you could expect that kind of rate among the immune compromised.

The only nasty part to SARS (other than getting it) is that it is polymorphic and could mutate into more virulent or more deadly strains. Like you mentioned it has already done so at least once perhaps more than once.
 

Sorry about the offense. That was not meant to be a "Ha-Ha!"
The thing that worries me about it, is the nurse or doctors in America and other advanced nations are careful.
Ever been to some of these countries where the healthcare workers don't even wash thier hands? SARS will LIKE them, and like them a lot.
Thanks for reiterating it for my sake that not one healthcare worker who followed isolation protocols and decon standards has contracted SARS. It allows me to reply:
Healthcare workers are human. They make mistakes. Accidents happen. You would come into contact with it far more than your average person. Including contaminated tissue, blood and material samples. The reason I say "It LIKES healthcare workers" is simple: Not all hospitals and clinics follow strict biocontamination procedures. Until this changes, it will continue to like healthcare workers.

While it is true that there are a lot worse diseases out there (Lassa Fever comes to mind, right off the bat, along with those diseases that crop up from time to time, kill 10-100 people in some 3rd World pesthole, and vanish, never even being named) this one is dangerous.

Sorry, but it would make a good bioweapon. It lasts for awhile outside a human host, easily mutates to fight treatment steps, burdens the medical system, causes panic (since cold or flu symptoms could be taken as an onset) and would cause the enemy to move battelfield medicine resources to the infected area. It's almost tailormade.

Yes, masks will decrease your total contamination load, but for the most part, people don't know how to wear masks, haven't been trained in the proper way to put one on, keep it in effect, and how long they can wear it.

Personally, I'm not sure how far this will go, and wonder what will happen when it gets to the weakened immune system population, and what the next mutation will be.

As for getting my figures from the National Equirer...
No.
Don't be insulting.
Smallpox wouldn't even be close, even if it did get out of Africa or out of some lab. I've been immunized against it, and so has a signifigant part of the world population. We could immunize again if we chose to.

Honestly, trying to predict what a disease does is like trying to predict anything in life. It doesn't work easily. Some say that if a major metroplotian area got something nasty like Bubonic Plague or Lassa Fever or Denge Fever in the six-digit area.

::shrug::

Honestly, I'll worry when the disease is in more than 40 geographical locations and the CDC/WHO containment teams are scrambled...

Until then, I'm going back to playing D&D and worrying about the real world in my spare time.
 
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Re: Re: My $1.50

Eosin the Red said:



It survives outside the body for 24 hours - some other types (TB) can survive up to 72 hours. 24 hours is only slightly on the long side.


Just to nit-pick a little: TB can actually survive outside a host considerably longer than 72 hours. Under the most ideal circumstances, it can survive for 6 to 8 months outside a host. Under normal circumstances (where proper decontamination - containment measures have not been taken), it could survive for about up to 3 months outside a host.
 

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