D&D 4E Paizo and 4e.

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

How about we stop deciding the motivations others have when making their posts? It's tacky and against forum rules.

 

[00Machado]

Part of me, a small part, thinks:

It would be cool to see what sort of 3.75 Paizo could come up with.

But I don't necassarilly think that would be good for them.

My take on this is that if they choose to or are forced to deviate from 4e, they'll be better off developing their own system instead of sticking with a version of D&D that no one but them supports. It's like all the benefit in flexibility of having your own system goes away because you're stuck adhering to some other rule set elements and instead all you end up with is all of the risk of hinging your company's success on your own system. If you're adopting that risk, might as well make the best rule system you can. If hybridizing 3.5 and 4e creates the best system, go for it, but I think they can do better starting from scratch.

I also think their business model (monthly releases, subscription, campaign length/serial format products) is best supported by aligning with 4E.

 

[BASHMAN]

Which is why I am so astonished that WoTC hasn't gotten the rules out to folks like Paizo and Necromancer. Paizo is probably the only company that can present a challenge to WoTC and 4E D&D by creating a 3.75, and they could easily co-opt them by just getting them the freaking rules already.

The clock is ticking, and we still have not seen a copy of the new Fourth Edition rules, nor have we seen a draft of the new SRD. I hear conflicting things from WotC as to when (or even whether) third-party publishers will be provided the rules in time to have 4e-compatible products for next Gen Con. I have spoken before (at length) about the uncomfortable position in which this places Paizo, but I remain hopeful that we will get to look at the rules during the playtest phase and plan accordingly. This was, after all, how things worked for trusted publishers during the 2.0/3.0 transition, so I have every reason to believe that the business folks at WotC understand the benefits of third-party support when it comes to converting their audience. But still we wait.

Actually to me it sounds like they are intentionally trying to "freeze out" some of the 3rd party "competition" and re-establish some sort of monopoly. If 3rd party publishers don't have any products for 4e at launch they'll die (especially the smaller ones). If they have to wait for 4e to be released like anybody else, they've got a long, long profitless wait before they can publish 4e material. To WotC-- this would be a good thing-- make Wizards THE company, while others must publish (something other than 4e successfully) or perish. At launch, the ONLY source of 4e stuff will be WotC-- I believe this is the plan.

They've already stated that an SRD won't be available for many months after launch, and I suspect they may even decide not to launch one, or make it cost money. (And, I am not trying to say WotC is evil, just that I suspect this is what they're up to).

 

[Zamkaizer]

How about we stop deciding the motivations others have when making their posts? It's tacky and against forum rules.

agree, newsletter, etc.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

Actually to me it sounds like they are intentionally trying to "freeze out" some of the 3rd party "competition" and re-establish some sort of monopoly. If 3rd party publishers don't have any products for 4e at launch they'll die (especially the smaller ones).

Pure fantasy.

 

[Matthan]

Wow, this thread went south fast. We've gone from some enlightening posts about the future of the market and honest commentary to wild conspiracy theories and accusations. Kudos to everyone involved.

Let me throw this out for something to discuss. Paizo has stated on their boards that if they were to stay 3.5 or 3.75, that they would have to publish at least a new Player's Handbook. Do you think that they can grow their customer base to make that a profitable venture? After all most of their customers now have their own core books for 3.5. To me, the need to have an in print copy of the core rules to support your main line helps put Paizo's situation into focus. To stay 3.5 may actually require more capital and more risk. Where going to 4E, maintains their business model and budget and has less risk. The big question would be the reward scenario for either path. I have my doubts about enough reward for staying 3.5.

 

[catsclaw227]

They've already stated that an SRD won't be available for many months after launch, and I suspect they may even decide not to launch one, or make it cost money. (And, I am not trying to say WotC is evil, just that I suspect this is what they're up to).

Where have they stated this? I would like to see a quote supporting this position. If I am not mistaken, the is SRD being released when the core books are launched.

 

[Odhanan]

I think it's obvious the 3.5 path you're talking about Matthan is the less rewarding on the short term. If you read carefully Erik's post, you'll find out that the real concerns are about long term survival for Paizo. He's speaking about 5th, 4.5... whatever edition comes next, not 4E.

That's the real gamble we're talking about: everyone will agree that 4.0 is the path for instant reward. 3.X OGL however provides a path that is harder, but ultimately could build a solid, long-lasting niche costumer base Paizo could build upon without interference from third-party (in this case, Hasbro) business decisions.

The point of the questions Erik is asking is exactly how niche the costumer base is at the moment, what exactly is the size of the potential market we're talking about here? If Pathfinder, GameMastery and retailing can make Paizo survive for a while, they can hope to build a sustaining customer base. Is there potential for that? That's the real question, I think.

 

[Shortman McLeod]

Paizo will support 4e provided that we think the system is cool, that the OGL allows us to do so in a way that makes sense for our business, and if we think the switch would be in the best interest of our readers.

So if you don't think the system is "cool", and if the OGL is too restrictive, and if your readers don't want you to, you *won't* support 4e, even though it will easily become the new 800 lb. gorilla of the industry??

I don't mean to seem snippy, but I find that rather hard to believe. (And what exactly does "best interest of our readers" mean, anyway?)

 

[Shortman McLeod]

True enough, as evidenced by the amount of peole who've pledged undying loyalty to a game system they haven't even seen yet. I wish gamers in general were a bit more discerning in their tastes. All we're showing WOTC with this attitude is that they don't need to work that hard for our dollars. They could write 200 pages of organic soap recipes and people'd buy it and try to play it.

And even more pathetic is that after loving it for a few years they would begin to complain of how broken it is as soon as WotC announced the 5th edition of organic soap recipes.