D&D 4E Paizo and 4e.

[JohnRTroy]

Actually, it's a little less "cut and dried" than that.

I've been reading a fascinating book called "In Search of Stupidity". It talks about all the mistakes a lot of the high-tech companies made over the years, things like Ashton-Tate, Borland, IBM, Novell, etc, made that caused them to lose market share and either die or become insignificant. In short, there are a lot of things people can't predict.

It is possible that 4e is the wave of the future and listening to the "hardcore" might be akin to what happened with WordPerfect, where the current customers were saying "stick with DOS" while everybody went with Windows and thus hurt them.

It's also possible that 4e could end up alienating a significant portion of the fanbase--the type that buys things besides the core books. If that's the case, a few companies catering to them might be nice.

It's also possible to survive the change by changing focus. I think a lot of companies got burned by d20 and started moving in "independent" directions. The rush to D20 I think hurt the secondary game market--the RPGs outside of d20 rules--so there's been some course-correction.

We don't really know what will happen. But I just want to make sure people realize that despite the hype, 4e isn't an automatic win at all. Maybe those message board posters reflect people who will actually buy products, maybe not. You can't really tell if the majority of the playerbase is reflect in ENWorld, Dragonsfoot, Paizo, Necromancer, or other game boards.

Maybe (hypothetical scenario) Paizo will be better by ignoring 4e while Necromancer's fans dislike the new game and thus abandon that company. Maybe somebody else will grab hold. Maybe in 5 years from now D&D turns into a strict boardgame and CCG by some higher up at Hasboro.

Nothing an automatic guarantee. Remember that guys.

 

[amethal]

I thought the whole point of Erik's post was that he was unsure whether they'd be able to do AP 3 properly under 4th edition rules (due to not having the SRD yet), so would people be interested in another 3.5 AP instead.

Its hardly "anti-4th edition".

 

[Geron Raveneye]

This is pretty simple. If Paizo does NOT switch to 4E, Paizo will wither and - likely - die.

Doesn't matter if 4E is superb or stinks. Doesn't matter if the SRD comes out early or late. Nothing matters.

You're kidding yourself, gentle readers, if you think otherwise.

And, by the gods, I hope Paizo (and other companies) don't base their business decisions on the poetic declarations of their messageboard folks. Show me ten posters who claim they will fanatically support a "3.75" edition, and I'll show you one who's maybe telling the truth.

Paizo ain't that Big, and ain't that Good, and it sure as Sunday ain't Wizards of the Coast.

Just the facts, ma'am. Just the facts.

W.P.

Funny, I always thought facts are things and events that either happen right now or have happened (and in that case, can be proven to have happened), not things or events that might with a certain degree of probability happen in the future.

Where I come from, that's called speculation (or hypothesis, for the scientifically minded ).

 

[DM_Jeff]

Paizo ain't that Good, and it sure as Sunday ain't Wizards of the Coast. Just the facts, ma'am. Just the facts.

Well, I'll be the one to step in and say "ain't that good" is actually an opinion, and in no WAY a fact.

-DM Jeff

 

[TerraDave]

Devil's Advocate

Part of me, a small part, thinks:

It would be cool to see what sort of 3.75 Paizo could come up with.

But I don't necassarilly think that would be good for them.

 

[Khairn]

And, by the gods, I hope Paizo (and other companies) don't base their business decisions on the poetic declarations of their messageboard folks. Show me ten posters who claim they will fanatically support a "3.75" edition, and I'll show you one who's maybe telling the truth.

.

I disagree with your opinion on this. I believe that WotC is creating a growing and passionate customer base of players who are very irritated with many of their decisions regarding 4E and are looking for another way to play D&D, receive support for their games, yet not buy WotC products. Just how big that market will be is yet to be determined, but I don't believe it will be negligable.

I also believe that unless WotC completely drops the ball, that 4E will be at least a decent system, and therefore by name recognition alone it will be successful. Because of that, all 3rd party publisher's will eventually support 4E. Whether they support 3E as well is the question in my mind. Hopefully someone will indeed support both markets.

Hardly facts, just my opinion.

 

[Bacris]

All I can say is I hope WotC supplies the major 3rd party companies with the 4E material with enough time to support 4E's launch. While my own investment in such isn't non-existant, I'm not going to compare myself and my small RPG company to Paizo or Necromancer. I understand there's a lot of work involved from the WotC side of things, but by not getting the rulesets to the "big boys" of the 3rd party market for 4E in time for Origins / GenCon releases, that sets 4E up for less success. Not for failure, because I expect enough people will by 4E with or without 3rd party support - but fewer will buy it if their favorite 3rd party companies aren't supporting the new edition.

I can only hope that the team over at WotC can get the OGL hammered out and available to the 3rd party companies as quickly as possible. I'm sure they're working hard, I just hope it doesn't negatively impact the market - a split market, even a small split, is a problem in my eyes.

 

[Rechan]

Wait a minute.

Didn't Orcus say that the Tome of Horrors would be out in July, given that they were getting the SRD? And Scott in the "Has 3rd parties gotten the SRD" said that they would be getting it soon?

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

Part of me, a small part, thinks:

It would be cool to see what sort of 3.75 Paizo could come up with.

But I don't necassarilly think that would be good for them.

I'd love to design a 3.75e, if I could find two people to agree on what changes need to be made.

In my opinion, any 3.75e would cause even more splintering of the market.

So your market is a fraction of the folks who aren't moving on to 4e, to begin with. From there you start shedding even more support: Save or die, or not. Vancian magic, or not. Per encounter or per day. And so forth.

Find me just ONE THING about 3.5e that everyone agrees must be changed for 3.75e.

 

[dmccoy1693]

Paizo ... ain't that Good, and it sure as Sunday ain't Wizards of the Coast.

Just the facts, ma'am. Just the facts.

HERESY!!! They're only one of the most creative companies in the industry. They absolutely ARE THAT good. True, they are not Wizards, but that's like saying Apples certain aren't Oranges. Well Duh. Paizo puts out some of the best (if not the best) adventures on the market, and until the Expedition series, far better then anything Wizards put out in a while. Now the difference in the gulf has been reduced to Paizo being just "considerably better" then Wizards adventures.

Wizards may come up with the game, but Paizo inspires the imagination. If something happened and WotC went under today, Paizo may not product the next "World's Most Popular RPG" but they will end up being one of the industry's most influencial members.