Raven Crowking said:
You need to go back and learn how to determine odds, my friend. So long as there is a chance to avoid death on each save, the chance of PC death is never 100%. In the case of, say, a medusa, you can also do things that lower the chance of death via the SoD effect....or even remove it altogether.
RC
RC, reread what I said. 20 saving throws. That's statistically going to result in a 1 at least once. That's 100% chance of fatality since a 1 always fails. There is no chance of avoiding death on a 1 and your chance of rolling a 1 on 20 rolls is close enough to 100%. Thus, that SoD encounter is lethal 100% of the time. (or close enough for this anyway)
Grog makes a good point. How do you peg the CR of a SoD effect? An EL par encounter should not result in fatality. It might, granted, since the baddie might get surprise, roll a crit, win initiative, roll another crit and obliterate a PC. OTOH, the party might kill the baddie before it acts as well. However, both situations are anomalies, not what you expect from an EL=par encounter. You expect the fight to last 3-5 rounds, the PC's to get smacked around a bit and carry on.
The whole CR system is predicated on that.
SoD breaks that completely. An EL par encounter with a SoD creature should result in a PC death almost 100% of the time. 3-5 rounds of everyone making saving throws is going to turn up that dreaded "1" very often. Never mind a bigger party as well. In a party of 6, SoD actually becomes far more deadly.
Straight up CR says that I should have to go about EL+4 or +5 before I should expect fatalities. But, if we whack up the CR on a bodak up to 13, it still doesn't work. It's far too weak at that level, but, it still has a small chance of PC fatality which a creature without a SoD effect would not have. If I jacked an unmodified gnoll to CR6, would it have a chance of killing a 6th level PC? I'm not sure, but, I'm pretty sure that his chances are far less than 4 tries at 5%.
SoD adds a layer of lethality to the game that is cannot be accounted for by the CR system. Anything that adds lethality to the game only hurts the PC's.