Vyvyan Basterd
Adventurer
Now their walking the streets of Calimport with some swagger feeling unstoppable and I think its high time I brought this frame of mind crashing down around them like flaming timbers.
My answer? The Mists of Ravenloft.
*Barely letting them sleep because of constant attacks (from The Twisted Rune so they can't refresh all those daily powers/healing surges is a good start.
*It's bad to have the attention of villains (The Twisted Rune) who would rather just toy with you then kill you outright.
*The <organization inspired by the Vistani>, who are more likely to trick, lie to, or steal from the players, while informing The Twisted Rune about their weaknesses, strengths and actions in Barovia.
That being said, how would you, as a DM, deal with a party that has become overly confident?
You've got some good ideas of how you want to challenge the party. I just don't see why you would want to ruin the pacing of your campaign by shunting it off into a Ravenloft sidetrek. Unless, of course, you haven't mentioned the fact that you used foreshadowing to lead down the path of the Twisted Rune effecting life in the Realms from their home in the Dread domain. You can still use some of the ideas you have regarding Strahd simply by changing the antagonist as I have in the quoted text above. Other changes might require more work to develop the Twisted Rune and the locations they hold sway.