Buzzardo said:
Loses Base, Brings in lots of new blood - Moderate Success
...
My money says 90% chance Huge Failure.
Two things:
1) If the loss of some of the base is equaled by the number of new gamers brought to the hobby, that is better than a moderate success. New gamers have a purchasing lifetime longer than us old farts, so even a 1:1 ratio is a benefit for economic longevity.
2) I'll take that bet. You're given me 10:1 odds, right?
Frankly, I know we hate to think this way, but those of us who have been playing for two decades are important to the hobby - but not nearly as important as some 14-year kid who picks up his first PHB. So we'll whine and pull our beards and complain about the loss of the Great Wheel, for example, but that doesn't mean Jack Diddly if the new edition jives with the 14-year old more than the old.
Now, Pramas says 4e will fail in that latter aim. But he's not 14 years old, as far as I can surmise. The anecdotal evidence on these boards suggests younger players (and non-gaming spouses)
are interested in 4e and
are playing it, whereas they did not play previous editions. Significant? Probably not, but one can hope for a growing trend based upon these positive instances and the record-breaking sales.
I think all of us need to be very careful that we do not equate
What Is Good for Us with
What Is Good for The Hobby.
Personally, I don't like the exclusion of barbarians in the PHB and frost giants in the MM. I
liked D&D's standing cosmology. I miss half-orcs and I'm not a fan of eladrin. I wish we had more rituals and more variance in powers. And so on.
Does my opinion matter? No. Unless it is shared by a majority of others. That doesn't seem to be the case.
Am I egotistical enough to want WotC to subscribe to my opinion instead of doing what they believe could be done to inject new blood? Heck no.
If building a new cosmology and a more fluid ruleset is what it takes to revitalize this community, then sign me up. I'll swallow my complaints and have fun at the gaming table. And I plunk the Great Wheel back where it belongs in my house rules.
Wis