Predictions of the d20/gaming Industry

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King_Stannis said:
what is it, exactly, that you would want me to do?

FWIW, I have no desires related to your actions or inactions; I could care less, but that would require more effort than I'm willing to expend. I merely wanted to point out what James had said (since it matches what other game designers I've conversed with have said), since you mentioned his name a couple of times.

Note that I'm not arguing against or for any position.

I consume, rather than produce, RPG materials, and therefore am all in favor of exceedingly low prices for those materials.

OTOH, I'm all in favor of John, Monte, Chris, James, Clark, Sean, David, Mearls, Ken, ad infinitum, making enough money to live, and not just scraping-by live (like I am), but live well. So prices have to be high enough to keep 'em all in business.

Heck, they should have Ferraris! Ferraris for all game designers!

If someone can figure out how to get me the FRCS for $20 and get John, James & Monte the expensive Italian sportscar of their choice, they need to share.

;)
 

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Amazing. Between the time I last checked this thread and now, it has devolved into arguments, rudeness and borderline insults.

This is a warning. This thread is on the verge of being closed. If you can't be polite, don't post. And yes, I'm sure that the main culprit knows who he is.
 

JohnNephew said:
Respectfully, I must suggest that the business end of this is considerably more complex than you might think.

(...)

This means that a price-raising publisher can still come out significantly ahead even if the number of units sold drops.

Respectfully, if you had looked at one of my earlier posts, I did say words to that effect. Don't think I don't have a grasp on economics. Just don't think I have the time and patience to give a lecture on it in a forum post, either. :)
 

I don't doubt that writing and publishing gaming materials is tough. I don't doubt that a price raise would be fair, in the sense that the quality of much of the product is really quite high these days. The people who make it really do deserve proper compensation.

However (there's always a however)....

I also think that $50 gaming books would simply force many low-income gamers (primarily students) right out of the market. Sure, the book is quality material, but if you were a budget crunched student, and you had a choice - buy a gaming book, or not buy the book, make up gaming material yourself (or pirate it) and go to the movies every weekend for half the semester - which would you choose?

In the short term, this is probably not economically meaningful. The sellers would lose a few customers, but would more than make up for that loss. But what would the long-term impact be? It may be that the current market is filled with long-time gamers who have lots of ready cash. But how many more years of purchases will you get out of them? What's more important, a few bucks now, or more bucks later?

I am not a master of demographics. It just seems to me that pricing that high would discourage future gamers, and that'd be a bad thing.
 

I disagree. Most college-aged gamers have the cash that they need to support a gaming habit, and they're just as into the high class products as the next orc-thwopper so they will pay for the books and instead use Gnutilla to get their music. (Been there, done that, know the score.)
 

If I can just take a minute to pull out some words that have been put into my mouth,

My posts neither advocated raising prices or suggested that game designers are woefully underpaid. Someone asked if anyone talented or important had ever left the game industry for greener pastures and higher wages. The answer to that question, is "oh my God, yes." I certainly apologize if my original answer was in any way inflamatory or argumentative.
 

King_Stannis said:

do you think about the 12 year old chinese girl who assembles your shirts in a sweatshop under what we would call barbaric conditions? of course you don't. so why the hell do i have to worry about your employees?

Do you also dismiss the 12-year-old Chinese girl as "playing games" for a living, and advise her to get another job if she doesn't like it?

if you want to charge more for your product, go right ahead.

Thanks, I think I'll give it a try. ;-)

but don't think that i'm going to automatically go along with it.

I understand. Look -- if publishers don't offer value to you for your dollar, they'll lose.

But in an earlier example, someone postulated buying only two books for $90 rather than three for $115. The thing is, the former may actually be better for the game publisher, even if all three are his books. Fewer units for the same gross dollars most likely means better gross margins. Similarly, selling fewer different items for the same gross dollars means economy of scale -- again, better gross margins. (I make WAY more profit selling 10,000 of 1 book instead of 1,000 each of 10 different books! And enormously more selling 5,000 of 1 book that has twice the price...)

what's your point? do you think the rpg industry is any different than any other industry?

It was your point, actually -- you said that there had not been any significant designers drawn away by better-paying lines of work. You were factually in error. (Unless your definition of premiere game designers circularly means only people now designing games.)

i might not know what i'm missing because of the talent drain. but i sure as hell know what i got....clark peterson, gary gygax, fiery dragon to name a few. and i didn't have them a few years ago.

Gary is, um, sui generis. At the least you can argue he has more staying power because of his seminal role in the whole field. He has certainly tried to make money in other fields (like novels). Perhaps he did well enough to return to game writing as a pasttime.

With respect to the Necromancer and Fiery Dragon guys, it's just too soon. They've done GREAT stuff, but they've really only been in business for what, two years? They both grabbed crest of the D20 phenomenon, boldly and impressively, before a lot of the existing game companies were willing to risk it -- and they reaped the rewards. I've gotta respect the heck out of that! But are any of them full-time? James from FDP was saying they all hold down day jobs. I know Clark is a lawyer (but Necromancer has done so well, maybe he's put his servitude to the Dark Side on the back burner for now... ;-) You didn't have them a few years ago -- will you have them a few years from now, if they come to find that they're designing games is a charitable activity but without the tax breaks due to loss limitations? Do you care, or will you just be happy with whatever new and idealistic young faces will take their place to be crushed under the soulless boot of game industry financial realities?

Yeah, ok, now THAT got a little too melodramatic!! :rolleyes:

On the bright side, if your argument is that game industry folk work in sweatshop-like conditions and that's A-OK with you -- well, that probably is good news for my side of the argument, because most people would come to a different conclusion. And the issue with pricing isn't to get everyone to pay a higher price -- it's to get enough people to pay a higher price to generate more dollars in the end. In the age of eBay, indeed, you can buy almost anything for less used in a few months (if not the day of release), so there will continue to be avenues for the budget-conscious to acquire what they want.

Frankly, I'd rather see a market with both higher prices on the newest-and-bestest, and more of a market for the discounted liquidation of older items, used items, etc.

Let me postulate an odd thought for folks to chew on: Game consumers are paying higher prices overall because prices are too low. If the prices were higher on the front end, there would be more demand and volume in lower-volume closeouts/remainders/liquidations (like you see in, for example, sports cards, CCGs, computer games, and hardcovers in the regular book trade). If prices were not uniformly low, there would be more point in looking for the bargains -- which would lead more people to specialize in the bargains, which in turn would mean more publishers would have a way to liquidate excess inventory each December rather than just having it picked up by the local recyclers.

(Yes, it's true. Game companies destroy THOUSANDS of game books every year -- most in brand new condition. There's nothing else to do with them. There's no avenue to sell them. If you discount them enough to be appealing in the economics of liquidation, it won't pay for the transactional costs of liquidating them. The result is it's cheaper to pay $35 for Weyerhouser to send over a truck to pick up, in our case this last year, three full skids of games -- something on the order of 5,000 pounds of gaming goodness destined to be tomorrow's toilet paper.)

If SRPs were higher across the board, thus, it would be easier for more gamers to get their games cheap in the end. (The prices of the really good stuff high in demand would stay high -- but then, everyone seems to agree that they'd be willing to pay up for that stuff anyhow.)
 

oh, why am i posting again???

Ok, just to inject a bit of classical economic doctrine into this entire debate let me start off by saying that in a competitive market, preato efficiency is measured by the proximity of price to any one producer's cost function; what this means is, it is a GOOD thing when the producer makes little profit and instead shifts to a more profitable market. That statement would seem to peg my stance on this issue, but...

The above is ONLY good when all parties are PROFIT MAXIMIZING. What this means is, while its good from a social surplus point for producers to be making 0 profit, that is only truly the case when they can ONLY hope to make such profit. This is because the price is ultimatly suppossed to reflect abundance, so 0 profit is suppossed to reflect optimal abundance, not just in terms of quantity, which we see plenty of, but of QUALITY as well. If rpg producers are, for whatever reason, underpricing their products, then that 0 profit fails to act as a price signal and thus attract the most efficient number of publishers, talent, etc.

Now the question to Ryan, Monte, Erik, etc. is, what do you believe is the extranality that causes publishers to not make the 'rational' pricing choice? Given that this market is a 'competitive monopoly', do you believe producers are overestimating the demand elasticities for their products and therefor underestimating brand loyalty?

just a few thoughts....
 

Psion said:

Respectfully, if you had looked at one of my earlier posts, I did say words to that effect.

Alan, you are correct, and I apologize. I had not read ahead far enough, and the thread managed to get me steamed enough to be posting before reading to the end. (You know, in case I got to the end and forgot about all the steamed-up posting I was wanting to do! That would be horrible!! ;-))
 

JohnNephew said:
Alan, you are correct, and I apologize.

No problem and no offense taken. Trust me... this thread is extremely friendly compared to the one of a similar nature that I just got out of at RPGnet. Now it COULD get ugly (at least until it gets slammed shut), and I am keenly aware that this is a very touchy subject for some. In essence, I am trying to get both sides to see the other sides' point here, and I do think both sides have a point.

Edit:
This whole debate reminds me of the Norman Rockwell painting where the grocer is pusing down on a scale that has a peice of produce on it, while the woman is pushing up on the underside.
 
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