Predictions of the d20/gaming Industry

[coyote6]

Exactly. I'll be either converting the MM to a binder or buying a new one inside six months. The binding is HORRIBLE! When I pull a 1977 copies of the PHB, DMG, MM, & MM II that survived 15 years of gaming with PERFECT binding I think that 30 bucks is waaaay to much for a new WOTC book.

OTOH, my original copies of all the 1e core books died many years ago. The bindings broke, on the MM, PH, & DMG. IIRC, the DMG finally literally fell apart (not much unlike my 2nd printing GURPS Basic 3e [non-revised], though that was softcover). Of course, I probably still have it somewhere (that GURPS Basic is right next to me, albeit reincarnated as more of a folder held together with duct tape than a book ).

Oh, and OA 1e's binding broke & pages stayed in only because I babied it heavily & barely used it. And, of course, Unearthed Arcana was fragile.

My 3e books seem to be in decent shape, though there are a few pages (spread over two or all three core books) in 'em that I'm concerned about -- they look like they might be near falling out. But I'm not sure -- I've had books that looked like that, but held up for years.

The 3e WotC books that I'm worried about most are the softcover ones -- S&F, DotF, etc. They get referenced quite a bit(no SRD version to look at while working on the computer), take more abuse (the hardbacks can usually be laid open to a page & relied on to stay, while paperbacks have to have pages weighted down or the spine cracked to get 'em to stay open), and are more vulnerable to said abuse (softcover -- fewer hp than hardcover ).

The Sword & Sorcery HC books, though, (CC, CC2, and R&R) really worry me. The bindings are very loose, and there are plenty of pages that look near falling out. I baby them.

OTOH, I guess I take pretty good care of my books. My friends won't borrow paperbacks from me 'cause they look nearly unread after I'm done with them, while they bust the spines apart.

Having the SRD or other electronic copies of books available really helps, IMO -- books take more damage while I'm trying to reference 'em while working on stuff on the computer than they do from in-play use, it seems. So having e-copies lets me use the computer for reference & save the books.

I wish WotC & other game companies could figure out a way to sell (separately or w/printed copies) electronic (PDF, HTML, whatever) copies of in-print stuff. Alas, stupid pirates would screw that up. :-/

 

[Flexor the Mighty!]

OTOH, my original copies of all the 1e core books died many years ago. The bindings broke, on the MM, PH, & DMG. IIRC, the DMG finally literally fell apart (not much unlike my 2nd printing GURPS Basic 3e [non-revised], though that was softcover). Of course, I probably still have it somewhere (that GURPS Basic is right next to me, albeit reincarnated as more of a folder held together with duct tape than a book ).

Oh, and OA 1e's binding broke & pages stayed in only because I babied it heavily & barely used it. And, of course, Unearthed Arcana was fragile.

My 3e books seem to be in decent shape, though there are a few pages (spread over two or all three core books) in 'em that I'm concerned about -- they look like they might be near falling out. But I'm not sure -- I've had books that looked like that, but held up for years.

The 3e WotC books that I'm worried about most are the softcover ones -- S&F, DotF, etc. They get referenced quite a bit(no SRD version to look at while working on the computer), take more abuse (the hardbacks can usually be laid open to a page & relied on to stay, while paperbacks have to have pages weighted down or the spine cracked to get 'em to stay open), and are more vulnerable to said abuse (softcover -- fewer hp than hardcover ).

The Sword & Sorcery HC books, though, (CC, CC2, and R&R) really worry me. The bindings are very loose, and there are plenty of pages that look near falling out. I baby them.

OTOH, I guess I take pretty good care of my books. My friends won't borrow paperbacks from me 'cause they look nearly unread after I'm done with them, while they bust the spines apart.

Having the SRD or other electronic copies of books available really helps, IMO -- books take more damage while I'm trying to reference 'em while working on stuff on the computer than they do from in-play use, it seems. So having e-copies lets me use the computer for reference & save the books.

I wish WotC & other game companies could figure out a way to sell (separately or w/printed copies) electronic (PDF, HTML, whatever) copies of in-print stuff. Alas, stupid pirates would screw that up. :-/

Well I dont' deny that that has happened, I have yet to personally see anyones core books from the first few printings that aren't in great shape.

 

[Corinth]

My books are in good shape, as much from my gentle handling as anything else.

 

[spacecrime.com]

Originally posted by Psion

And Ryan says that [GW's] behavior is good because they stop raising prices when their sales drop not when customers complain. Well obviously they didn't stop in time, because they did lose customers.

FWIW, I think that's part of the business plan. Let me elaborate a bit on some of John Nephew's earlier thoughts.

OK, you got into GW. You bought plenty of core books, basic minis and key supplements. You got your army set up pretty much the way you wanted it.

What are you going to buy next?

You don't need any more core materials, and unless you're a total GW diehard super-customer you're not that likely to buy a whole lot of product for a new army or new game. You're probably going to want more specialized items for your particular army. Those specialized items are just as expensive to produce as any other item in GW's product lineup, and they appeal to a much smaller segment of their fans.

So GW has a choice. They can spend a lot of energy and resources coming up with ever-more-specialized ways to keep their long-time customers happy. Or they can fire you as a customer and devote their attention to recruiting new customers who will all need core books, important supplements, and all those other things that you've already bought. Instead of making 10 different little products every month, they get to relaunch 1 product with minor changes and make more money for less effort.

Now, they could just turn around and recruit new customers. But then they have to deal with you standing around waving your arm and looking for service. You'll be complaining because there's nothing new for you and your geared-up army will be beating up on the newcomers and discouraging them because they're no good at their expensive new hobby.

So they fire you. They revamp and relaunch the line, making your super-army illegal. The die-hard super-customers don't mind and buy lots more product, so GW wins there. New customers try out the new game and get on the product treadmill for the first time, so GW wins there. And customers like you -- the ones who have reached the point of diminishing returns for GW -- get fed up and leave. GW wins there, too, because the 12-year-old coming in will spend more in the next 4 years than you would have.

It's a brilliant solution to the Deadly Supplement Production Treadmill: cut off the lines and customers that have reached the point of diminishing returns and start fresh. It takes a lot of work to constantly turn over your customer base, but one of the nice things about GW's business is that the retailers and super-customers are willing to do a lot of that work for GW.

(There's some evidence to suggest that GW applies the turnover approach to stores too, by the way. Some very smart retailers have done math that indicates that the GW product mill will put all but a few "super-retailers" out of business given enough time. GW makes a lot of money from overloading retailers with inventory and then picking up new retailers as the old ones go under.)

I'll haul this back on topic (finally) by pointing out that D20 represents a somewhat different solution to the same diminishing-returns problem. WotC's basically outsourced supplement development, which we knew. It might be reasonable to conclude that they've also outsourced their customers a bit. The people who want specialized product will spend their time button-holing the D20 publishers while Wizards can get on with the more profitable business of selling core books and must-have supplements. The difference is that Wizards isn't actively getting rid of the tapped customers so much as benignly ignoring them.

yours,

 

[ColonelHardisson]

The difference is that Wizards isn't actively getting rid of the tapped customers so much as benignly ignoring them.

You know what? This makes perfect sense to me. Basically, once WotC puts out the requisite books that are expected - core, class, genre - then all they have to do is provide books for new players (and the occasional replacement tome for some of us) and let the d20 publishers take on what they don't want to do. WotC doesn't have to worry too much about pleasing cutomers after that, but not in a bad way. They can then watch as the OGL and d20 movement refines and perfects the system, and then produce a new edition after a few years of general gaming public playtesting. They have to expend very little effort on their part with such a set-up, and many of their (former) top designers will have been working on improving the game without being on their payroll. Ingenious.

I kinda knew all this, and thought it was a good idea, but the full array of implications just hit me.

 

[Ulrick]

FWIW, I think that's part of the business plan. Let me elaborate a bit on some of John Nephew's earlier thoughts.

OK, you got into GW.....

After reading that, I dislike GW even more...

Grr...

I wouldn't be surprised if I hear that GW allows its employees and execs buy GW stock. The cashflow begins to hemmorage and they cover it up. Then it all goes down in a flames as a big glob of plastic and lead (that's right, they'll lie about that too).

YES! That will be one of my predictions of the gaming industry! (Actually it would be more of a wish).

Ulrick

PS. In case you didn't know, I was referring to Enron. But let's not go any further there.

 

[Flexor the Mighty!]

Oh boy a new edition of D&D in a couple of years that is even less and less like the D&D I love...I guess I'm just old fashioned. Maybe the next edition will have anime style art and only FR will be supported...

*longs for the good old days of D&D with Gygax at the helm*

 

[JohnNephew]

It's a brilliant solution to the Deadly Supplement Production Treadmill: cut off the lines and customers that have reached the point of diminishing returns and start fresh.

Whoa. Can I nominate this for one of the two or three most insightful messages I've read on any game industry board so far this year?

When I was posting earlier, I was trying to figure out in my head why it is that GW probably just doesn't mind about losing those guys (and we know they lose plenty, but keep raking in the bucks), and I think you nailed it. It's actually ESSENTIAL that they do it -- not only are they happy to let go the people whose spending has leveled off or dwindled, but getting them out of the hobby (unless they're willing to spend the same money for essentially the same things over again) is in fact key to keeping a "level" field for newcomers. Otherwise you wind up with the typical game hobby subsection, of graying and bitter grognards who demand more than is feasible to give to them, and simultaneously scare off the newcomers who would inject the fresh blood and cash that would actually make continuing support possible.

Dang.

OK, what other games have done this, in what way, and to what degree of success? I'll probably think of examples on the way home.

 

[Cergorach]

There's only one thing i can say to publishers when they talk about increasing the price of their RPG products as a result of an increase of quality:

Impress me with your Foo!

If WotC (or any other company) can make a product that has a 25% incease of value (for me) compared to FRCS, i'll gladly pay $50 for it! I'll even accept an increase of 'only' 15%-20%.

Also, i'm more than willing to pay for high page count, full-color hardcover RPG books. I would rather spend $50 on a 320-page product, than $10 for 10 32-page products, what does it take to get through to publishers?

 

[rounser]

25% incease of value (for me) compared to FRCS

Wow, you don't ask for much. "25% increase in value" over what is, IMO, possibly the finest book ever made for D&D...

If they managed that, I'd buy it too!