Pathfinder 2E Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank

[Hussar]

Actually, the comparison I was thinking of is MtG vs RPG's. That's about the relative size difference. MtG x10 WotC x10 all other TTRPG's.

 

[teitan]

Actually, the comparison I was thinking of is MtG vs RPG's. That's about the relative size difference. MtG x10 WotC x10 all other TTRPG's.

The Marvel vs DC analogy still fits then! LOL

 

[BryonD]

To be perfectly fair though, those 2014 WotC modules are selling better than practically ANYTHING of any edition, other than maybe core books. The idea that a 5 year old module is still anywhere near still selling is unheard of previously. So, comparing anything to how 5e WotC modules are doing is a bit misleading since nothing in the history of the hobby, outside of maybe core books, has had that kind of staying power.

In other words, selling as well as WotC is not the bar anymore. Not when WotC basically tripled the size of the RPG market in the last five or six years. Or, to put it another way, WotC went from the 600 pound gorilla to the 6000 pound gorilla. Which just makes everything else look so much smaller.

But you can't say "being #2 behind D&D is awesome" and also say "WotC is not the bar anymore". If it is that meaningless of a comparison, it doesn't provide anything positive anymore than it says anything negative.

So the questions become: How is it doing compared to how PF was doing right before PF2E was announced?
How is it trending?
And how much space is it taking up in the gaming market?

There is no evidence that it is doing particularly well compared to where the PF was when PF wasn't doing nearly well enough.

We see zero evidence of growth. VTT data suggests that more people are STILL playing PF. And meatspace anecdotes don't challenge that.

All that said, if you erased any thought of PF2E and just started a thread about Hoard of the Dragon Queen being #7,500 on amazon, nobody would care. This thread starts off with an at release ranking of 196. But it quickly drops through the 100s. It settles into the 2,000s and that was "awesome". Every time it drops, the bar for what is "awesome" just moves to stay with it. And other titles that nobody was talking about a few weeks ago suddenly become awesome as well.

Nobody early in the thread said "If they are still outselling Hoard of the Dragon Queen in April, that will be awesome".

 

[BryonD]

Probably not, but honestly I doubt they should have been worrying about doing 5E Adventure book numbers. That's pie in the sky stuff.

So answer honestly...
When you started this thread on 8/1/19 talking about "beating out the 5E Monster Manual handily", did you anticipate typing this post a few months later?

 

[BryonD]

Pathfinder fell hard the last couple years. It slipped out of the top 5 and I think that is extremely important when looking at their current sales and their solid number 2 spot at this time.

See, I think this is a great example of cognitive bias. In two sentences you describe PF as falling "hard" and you describe PF2E's position as "solid". You don't have any basis for either of those completely qualitative words, but it is how you filter the limited data.

The fact remains that PF was #2 behind 5E for quite a while. It was just as "solid" as PF2E is now. (Which is to say, not very much at all). The thing that knocked it out of #2 was the launch of Starfinder. And it fell all the way to #3. Then PF2E was announced and THEN it dropped out of the top 5.

You can go back and look up in this thread where I have stated a few times that PF was done, was not selling well enough. I'm not changing that now. But every hand-waving argument saying that PF2E is doing great right now could be made about PF pre-SF/PF2E announcement. It was the game I prefer, it was #2, and yet I never claimed that meant it was doing good enough.

There is nothing quantitative to suggest a difference, and the qualitative data we have is roughly the same.
And if you interpret them both as roughly the same, then fair enough regardless of if you say "awesome" or "crashing". But if you see one as a hard fall and the other as solid, then it is hard to say that you are not rolling some bias into your evaluation.

 

[Parmandur]

So answer honestly...
When you started this thread on 8/1/19 talking about "beating out the 5E Monster Manual handily", did you anticipate typing this post a few months later?

I honestly expected a bit of an entertaining horse race, but never got it.

Hoard of the Dragon Queen is selling well, however.

 

[BryonD]

I honestly expected a bit of an entertaining horse race, but never got it.

Hoard of the Dragon Queen is selling well, however.

Fair enough.
"Selling well" is, again, a relative concept. For a 5 1/2 year old hardcover module, that seems to be beyond question. For a 0 1/2 year old Core Rulebook.... Well, you expected a horserace and didn't get it. So we have that.

And that is the thing. Nobody ever expected a horserace between Call of Cthulu and 5E. But now PF2E is being compared to CoC and modules.

 

[Parmandur]

Fair enough.
"Selling well" is, again, a relative concept. For a 5 1/2 year old hardcover module, that seems to be beyond question. For a 0 1/2 year old Core Rulebook.... Well, you expected a horserace and didn't get it. So we have that.

And that is the thing. Nobody ever expected a horserace between Call of Cthulu and 5E. But now PF2E is being compared to CoC and modules.

You are not wrong.

 

[teitan]

It isn’t cognitive bias, it’s saying PF1 fell off the top five list and now it’s back on the top five list and doing double what the number 3 is doing. Cognitive bias is your continued insistence it’s doing poorly in spite of my having demonstrated that fall and then return with screen shots.

 

[BryonD]

It isn’t cognitive bias, it’s saying PF1 fell off the top five list and now it’s back on the top five list and doing double what the number 3 is doing. Cognitive bias is your continued insistence it’s doing poorly in spite of my having demonstrated that fall and then return with screen shots.

Pick any screenshot you want. Pick the very best one.
There is not a single one that shows growth. (aside from the previously mentioned "it is doing better than it was before it was released" absurdity)
Pick your best one and I'll comment on it.

How can you deny that you flat out made opposite conclusions for virtually the same information?

You really need better than "I know you are but what am I?" here.
I'm not the one reading the same data and getting two different answers based on my result of preference. You clearly are.