Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

[DMZ2112]

So, I guess the death spiral never happened? I'm confused by the several articles, posts, blogs, etc., that Ryan has put up.

At the risk of participating in <echo>THREAD NECROMANCY</echo>, I would say the jury is still way out on this one. I think we're seeing a lot of what he describes in the recent changes to DDi and the complete overhaul of the 2011 product calendar.

I'm not saying D&D4 is going to fail, I'm just saying I don't think it's safe just because it's been two years since his blog post.

 

[Matt James]

Oops Sorry for the necromancy. I had come across the thread via Google. Anyways, the discussion WotC had during DDXP definitely helped to sate the curiosity of many regarding their product line in 2011 (modular products that are bundled together).

 

[TheAuldGrump]

Or that they are desperately trying to regain lost ground. Take your pick....

I think 4e might be in a death spiral, but D&D in general...? Maybe, as mentioned, but the jury is still out, and if WotC is reacting maybe it can be turned around in any event, though I have my doubts regarding their current methods....

The Auld Grump

 

[Stoat]

In April 2009, Dancey predicted one of three outcomes:

1: A total collapse, and the game ceases meaningful publication and distribution at least for one gamer generation and maybe forever.

2: Downsizing until overhead matches income; could involve some kind of out-license or spin off of the business - think BattleTech in its current incarnation.

3: Traumatic rebirth, meaning that someone, somewhere finds some way to cut out the cancers that are eating the tabletop game and restarts the mass market business for D&D.

Nearly two years later, none of these outcomes have happened. Everything ends sooner or later, but Dancey was predicting a sudden, destructive collapse. It ain't happened.

So what's the statute of limitations on FUD?

 

[ATimson]

Nearly two years later, none of these outcomes have happened.

Umm... if the 2011 schedule isn't case #2, then what's your definition of "downsizing" that doesn't include cutting releases in half?

 

[Matt James]

Is the metric by which we are defining the health of the game, marked by not having random products released each month? I can't find a link at the moment, but this past week during DDXP, the WotC staff explained their shift in content development and the release schedule. In short, packaging simular products into bundles, rather than releasing books just for the sake of releasing them. Also, DDI accounts for a swath of content that previously would have been inked into a book. Stoat's comments stand and the decrying of a system, just for the sake of decrying it, has a demonstrable patter with Mr. Dancy.

 

[carmachu]

2: Downsizing until overhead matches income; could involve some kind of out-license or spin off of the business - think BattleTech in its current incarnation.

You do know they canceled several products and the entire minitaure line right?

 

[Matt James]

I can only offer that you should listen to their answer from DDXP. I'm not going to repeat it all. As for the minis, the manufacturer from China raised the prices on plastics exponentially, thus making it inequitable to continue the line. Making minis just to make them, is a stupid business prospect. I understand it's easier to just hate what a company is doing, rather than seek the answers. But, there is so much more involved than many want to acknowledge. It's easier to attack The Man. People need a villain, I guess.

 

[Umbran]

Umm... if the 2011 schedule isn't case #2, then what's your definition of "downsizing" that doesn't include cutting releases in half?

For most folk, "downsizing" is not about products, but about personnel. Downsizing is about making the company smaller, not the product list smaller.

 

[Stoat]

For most folk, "downsizing" is not about products, but about personnel. Downsizing is about making the company smaller, not the product list smaller.

This is what I was thinking when I read "downsizing." I also see Dancey suggesting "some kind of out-license or spin off of the business," which hasn't happened.

For whatever reason, the link to Dancey's original blog post is blocked on my work computer, so I'm going off the quote in the OP. Dancey sounds like he was expecting the death spiral to take over immediately. Did he provide any kind of timetable? Did he suggest how long the death spiral would take to play out?

If WotC keeps publishing 4E until 2020 and then conks out, are folks going to say, "See, Dancey was right. Death Spiral!"