Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

[renau1g]

If WotC keeps publishing 4E until 2020 and then conks out, are folks going to say, "See, Dancey was right. Death Spiral!"

I'm 100% certain that people will.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I'm 100% certain that people will.

*sets clock for 2020*

Ehhhhh...nuttin' to see here!

 

[TheAuldGrump]

*sets clock for 2020*

Ehhhhh...nuttin' to see here!

Duuude, did you get the Mayansoft patch to prevent the Y2012 Bug? Man, it's gonna, it's gonna affect like all the calendars everywhere, man!

The Auld Grump, still in a silly mood.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Duuude, did you get the Mayansoft patch to prevent the Y2012 Bug? Man, it's gonna, it's gonna affect like all the calendars everywhere, man!

Patches? I don't need no STEEENKEENG patches! (Mac user- the Mayan bug won't affect us.)

 

[Roland55]

I can only offer that you should listen to their answer from DDXP. I'm not going to repeat it all. As for the minis, the manufacturer from China raised the prices on plastics exponentially, thus making it inequitable to continue the line. Making minis just to make them, is a stupid business prospect. I understand it's easier to just hate what a company is doing, rather than seek the answers. But, there is so much more involved than many want to acknowledge. It's easier to attack The Man. People need a villain, I guess.

Not I.

I've played (and loved) this old game since it first began. I haven't been able to make the leap to 4E, though I tried several times ... quite hard. But I'm still cheering for D&D, in whatever form and every form.

D&D. Long may she reign.

 

[DMZ2112]

This is what I was thinking when I read "downsizing." I also see Dancey suggesting "some kind of out-license or spin off of the business," which hasn't happened.

Stoat, I know you can't read the original blog post, so you wouldn't know this, but in the context of Dancey's post he makes it pretty clear that he is talking about product cuts. Maybe not exclusively, maybe in conjunction with personnel layoffs, but he's definitely talking about product cuts.

"The next things that will take hits are the RPGA, ...then quality, ...then consistency..."

Along those lines, while the 2011 product schedule is certainly wonky, I think the attempted switch to trade paperback as a format and the absence of retailer support for RPGA events are more telling.

If WotC keeps publishing 4E until 2020 and then conks out, are folks going to say, "See, Dancey was right. Death Spiral!"

Well, for my part, I promise that if D&D4 makes it five years without a new edition or vanishing from the market I won't say this. But I do think that's an 'if,' and we're already 2.5 years in. By comparison, I don't feel this way about Pathfinder, which came out around the same time -- Paizo has a much more modest, but still consistent release schedule. Wizards has changed their design strategy three times in six months.

As for accepting Wizards' explanation of their unreliability at DDXP, I call that 'drinking the Kool-Aid.' I'm sorry to cause offense, but what are they expected to say other than, "Everything's just fine and getting better?"

 

[Ulrick]

Sometimes I wonder if industry leaders/insiders (in whatever industry, not just RPGS) just say things to watch people go bonkers and argue...

 

[Hussar]

Wow, has it only been 2.5 years since 4e was released? ((Goes and checks)). Yeah. It sure feels longer. Maybe it's the endless grind of these kinds of threads that just makes it seem like 4e has been around for longer.

 

[rgard]

Duuude, did you get the Mayansoft patch to prevent the Y2012 Bug? Man, it's gonna, it's gonna affect like all the calendars everywhere, man!

The Auld Grump, still in a silly mood.

Silly is good.

D&D 5.0 is scheduled for 20 December 2012. That way we'll only have a day's worth of moaning by the fans of the current edition...before the end of the world.

 

[Deuce Traveler]

When it comes to business and finances, collapses normally happen over a period of time. Look at US auto companies and the banking industry for instance. Businesses have bad models, get hurt badly, find some way to get some breathing room for awhile, then find themselves hurting worse then before. Eventually it does lead to a collapse.

I'm not sure how DnD is doing since I do not work for WoTC or Hasbro. I can report on what I see, however. For the first time I no longer see RPG books being sold at the military exchange. Where RPG books normally were filling couple of bookcases at my local mall's book store, they are now designated to only a shelf. Thank goodness for my local comic book/trading card/RPG store. My personal observation is pointing towards a decay in the market.