Phil,
I have a huge collection of game material built up over a large period of years. It is all printed. I have never purchased a PDF because the PDF format seemed to me too ephemeral and I had no reasonable way to permanently store the PDF’s neatly. Two factors have recently changed this dynamic and two factors have arisen to complicate matters.
First, the good news.
With the decline in the number of new d20 print releases, I have started to consider PDF’s as a place to look for continuing d20 support. The notion that the d20 market is tapped is nonsense. The obvious d20 products have been done, and done, and in some cases, done yet again. The low hanging fruit is gone. That d20 publishers seem incapable in many cases of imagining what they can publish beyond the lowing hanging fruit does not mean the market it tapped. It seems too often that the imaginations of the d20 publishers are tapped, or perhaps that they never had much imagination to begin with beyond the standard D&D tropes. Some. By no means all. In any event, myself and those of my acquaintance, bemoaning the lower number of print releases, have started to give PDFs a serious look for the first time.
Coupled with this, pen or flash drives present themselves as a cheap (and becoming cheaper) way to store large files independent of a hard drive on a machine that will be obsolete in less than 5 years from the date it is purchased and which will need to be replaced.
In combination, at least to myself and those of my acquaintance, PDFs have comparatively recently come under serious consideration for the first time.
Now, the bad news.
In my initial forays looking into PDFs, I have been overwhelmed by the sheer number of them and the realization that they are not only not cataloged anywhere but that it is very difficult to learn much about any given title. There is then a steep learning curve to get to the point where you feel confident that you are a knowledgeable buyer. I still have not found or seen a good way to address this systemic need for organization and information. The Paizo site is at least clean and uncluttered in its presentation, which is a tremendous plus over some sites.
Now, the worst news.
I’ll put the date to your allusion. 4th Edition will be released in 2008. We are in the last days of 3x with no guarantee that 4e will be substantially backwards compatible or open licensed, initial indications seem to say not. Whatever the specifics, the unknown creates uncertainty that affects willingness to commit to more product, both among publishers and purchasers. Oddly, while I have no intention of switching from 3x, I still hesitate. Of course, I said the same about going from 2e to 3x but I did eventually switch. If such experience is common, 3x publishers may find no one to buy their 3x products after 4e, even if 4e is closed and all they can work with is the OGL. If everyone chases the new 4e hotness, 3x OGL will go begging.
Perhaps, this last suggests a strategy you might consider. If you are going to stay the d20/OGL course, you need to make your preparations. Mongoose has their Conan etc. Malhavoc has their Arcana and Iron Heroes lines, etc. etc. - branded d20 identities not dependent on being “general D&D support.” You might consider how a PDF publisher could apply the theory to their d20/OGL work. (I think Adamant Entertainment, from what I have seen, is already down this road - supporting Northern Crown and Skull & Bones etc. - though theirs is not necessarily the only strategy, as one could look for ones own identity independent of any other publisher, at least in theory. A unique property and identity, a “mini-Mongoose” or “mini-Malhavoc” approach?)
At least in the short term, an authoritative Guide to Buying PDFs would help neophytes such as myself - what is available, for how much and where and what is it exactly? You would likely not altruistically pursue such a thing but partnered with other PDF publishers. I know of Adamant Entertainment’s PDF business largely through word of mouth and ads in the back of print products. I know Ronin Arts in largely similar fashion - word of mouth and a few printed Ronin Arts products I have seen. Everybody else in the PDF world is, to me, largely a cipher and I am difficulty understanding what is out there. I think there is a need for an organized and clear PDF resource to help people get into PDFs with some feeling of confidence.
In all events, I think a market exits or can continue to exist, how to approach it, under the circumstances, being the actual issue. Maybe it cannot be approached in any reasonable way. My uninformed sense of Adamant suggests to me is that there is likely a way, if there is a will.
My two cents (or less). And best fortune!
