AbdulAlhazred
Legend
Again, I agree with you.
As I said WotC is taking a real risk here.
But if they were going with your logic then why change, just double down on your 4E fan base.
I don't think this is a good assessment.
They had a HUGE fan base. And 3E ran its life cycle. It makes sense. When 4E was announced I was completely on board because I thought it was time to move forward. But you can't judge a game by its popularity at the end of the cycle. The 3E/D20 era has repeatedly been called the second Golden Age and was criticized for glut and pushing out innovation in other games. It was hugely popular for quite a few years.
4E was on shelves in June 2008. Fans were crowing about it being a New York Times Bestseller. According to recent WotC statements they decided to start work on 5E in "late 2010". So in 18 MONTHS (at most) WotC threw in the towel internally. And it was easy to see along the way, but it is far easier to see now with 20/20 hindsight that they were desperately trying to "fix" the game and salvage their fan base for quite some time. In 18 months they had time to go from bestseller to realizing they had a problem, thinking of an developing solutions to try, publishing the solutions, looking for the results of that change, and then realizing they needed to go new edition.
You are comparing a game at the end of its life cycle to a game that, frankly, never had a life cycle.
Nope. That isn't true.
I do agree that the designers should be thinking "EVERY FAN". They should have a positive attitude and an aggressive approach. But from a real business point of view, getting back to being the icon of RPGs will be more than viable and is a realistic goal.
Anyone on the design team that doesn't want "EVERY FAN" should be off the team.
Anyone on the design team who has not learned the lessons of the past few years should also be off the team.
Clearly we will have to agree to disagree. Notice that the whole OSR movement really gained a lot of momentum during the 3e era too. Clearly there were issues before the appearance of 4e. And again, why would WotC have felt compelled to make deep changes to the game if they didn't feel that the choice was between taking a big roll of the dice and simply admitting that they couldn't succeed at all? For that matter why was 3.5 released? I think there was a realization at WotC going far back before 4e was even thought of that there were problems. Heck, read what Ryan has written. This isn't anything new, they understood a dozen years ago that in the long run simply edition cycling the game every 6-10 years was not really a viable business strategy.
The fact is that the same forces that drove WotC to create 4e are going to apply equally to 5e. Go back to the same old thing as before and THE VERY BEST you can possibly hope for (and there is little chance of it) is to be stuck back where you were when 4e was being thought up. That's not success. Even getting back to that point is going to require EVERYONE being onboard, and thinking that the 'lessons learned' are that you should do over what hasn't ultimately succeeded, well, I've started and run a number of businesses and I know a winning business plan from a losing one, and "doing what we did before" is never a big winner when it didn't win the first time around.