D&D 5E Should D&D be marketed like Coke, Ketchup, or Spaghetti Sauce?

[Halivar]

That and the fact that 4e mechanics make really, really bad translations to video games. Too many interrupt and "do-over" type powers. Works well in a turn based game, but anything approaching real time is going to be an absolute bear.

I've been beating this drum forever. 4E is not and never was anything like WOW. It's MTG as a table-top RPG (not that that is better; but it does seem less pejorative.)

 

[Mistwell]

In short, D&D is dead, 5e is either vaporware or a rasping death rattle, and this is more interesting as a discussion of how to mismanage a brand than anything else.

For a year you've been calling it vaporware and claiming 5e would never be released.

And now, now that we're getting closer to the product, we have some product being sold (adventures), and a starter product announced, and announcements about the core, all of a sudden you've changed your tune to "rasping death rattle".

And if it does OK (and there are many signs it will do just fine), what will you shift to then? Do you just move your target another year, add a new negative adjective, and pretend you never made a prediction of vaporware?

At some point, when your predictions fail multiple times, are you not accountable for the failures of your past? Do you never question your assumptions or are we all supposed to ignore the ones that don't come true?

 

[Celebrim]

For a year you've been calling it vaporware and claiming 5e would never be released.

And now, now that we're getting closer to the product, we have some product being sold (adventures), and a starter product announced, and announcements about the core, all of a sudden you've changed your tune to "rasping death rattle".

Oh you got me, you getter you. I have totally changed my position, haven't I? Here's what I said a few months ago:

"I said in like March of last year that the product might not even see the light of day, and if it does, it probably will only be in a close out sell for the brand." - Me

So, you're right. I'm totally hedging my bet more than I ever have now...

Do you hear the sarcasm?

And if it does OK (and there are many signs it will do just fine), what will you shift to then?

Probably the sort of thing that I 'shifted to' way back when I started talking about this, like:

"I really really want 5e to succeed, because as much as I enjoy ruling my own sovereign rules kingdom, not having professional support at all increasingly sucks" - Me

Do you just move your target another year, add a new negative adjective, and pretend you never made a prediction of vaporware?

At some point, when your predictions fail multiple times, are you not accountable for the failures of your past? Do you never question your assumptions or are we all supposed to ignore the ones that don't come true?

Oh you've got me now. I'm so embarrassed. I mean, it's not like I've ever been wrong before. It's going to be so humiliating to be wrong. Woe is me, I must flee the boards in the face of your great righteous indignation!

That was more sarcasm, in case you couldn't tell.

 

[Mistwell]

Oh you got me, you getter you. I have totally changed my position, haven't I? Here's what I said a few months ago:

"I said in like March of last year that the product might not even see the light of day, and if it does, it probably will only be in a close out sell for the brand." - Me

So, you're right. I'm totally hedging my bet more than I ever have now...

Do you hear the sarcasm?

I hear the sarcasm, but it's not a good answer in my opinion because you've made literally dozens of comments about this, and a lot of them had none of that "it probably will only be in a close out sell for the brand" but were simply "It's vaporware and will never be released". Morrus even challenged you on the comment once, and you held your ground saying it will never be released.

So yeah, looks to me like your position is shifting, you're trying to cover your bases and be evasive. I'd be OK with that if you were saying "Looks like I was wrong, my new view is..." But that's not what you're saying. You're trying to pretend you never claimed it was total vaporware, and are now shifting to a claim that you always thought it was going to be released. I don't think it is unfair of me to raise the topic with you. If you want to be snarky and sarcastic back, well fair enough.

Probably the sort of thing that I 'shifted to' way back when I started talking about this, like:

"I really really want 5e to succeed, because as much as I enjoy ruling my own sovereign rules kingdom, not having professional support at all increasingly sucks" - Me

Yeah, "Want to succeed" isn't really relevant to "Predict it will never be released". I am asking if it does OK on release, will you simply shift to "It will fail, next year"? What's your threshold for success. I think it's fair to get some specifics from you, given a year of hearing how it's vaporware.

Oh you've got me now. I'm so embarrassed. I mean, it's not like I've ever been wrong before. It's going to be so humiliating to be wrong. Woe is me, I must flee the boards in the face of your great righteous indignation!

That was more sarcasm, in case you couldn't tell.

I am not suggesting any such thing. You can exaggerate and be sarcastic for effect, but it's not much of an answer to genuine questions. At what point to you consider that your assumptions were faulty? When it comes out? If it does OK for the first year? Is it really such an unfair thing for me to want to hold you to a position you've been repeating in threads for a year?

I made a prediction about 4e once, and was held to it (for a long time). I'm comfortable with that. You didn't see me being sarcastic and snarky and exaggerating for effect and evasive when faced with it. I'm just trying to hold you to a standard I was willing to accept, and I thought you'd be willing to accept. And if not, I am asking what standard you are willing to be held to, if any. Not really the sinister or mean type of thing you're painting it as. I think you have some level of responsibility for the things you say and do, much like I am sure you think I do, and also like you appear to think WOTC has for the things they have said and done.

 

[Celebrim]

I hear the sarcasm, but it's not a good answer in my opinion because you've made literally dozens of comments about this, and a lot of them had none of that "it probably will only be in a close out sell for the brand" but were simply "It's vaporware and will never be released". Morrus even challenged you on the comment once, and you held your ground saying it will never be released.

So far as I can recall, my position has always been like the quote I found - that its either never going to be released, or its going to be released solely to attempt to recover design costs and then it's going to die in a relatively short time frame.

I think it's fair to get some specifics from you, given a year of hearing how it's vaporware.

I think it's actually close to two years now since I started to get the impression the product was in big trouble and started saying so, but since I've made dozens of comments surely you've got lots of specifics already without me repeating them.

At what point to you consider that your assumptions were faulty?

Out selling 4e would be a clear indication that it wasn't going to die, and was going to succeed. Over taking Pathfinder not only in the short term (which it could hardly fail to do upon release) but after being out a year or more would likewise be a good start. Widespread satisfaction with the game, converting lots of people from 3e and 4e would be a sign that the brand was going to endure. I don't really expect any of that to happen, but if it does, I'll be as pleased as anyone. I've been playing 'D&D' for over 30 years now. The idea of the brand dying would be like losing a faithful pet or good friend.

 

[Mistwell]

So far as I can recall, my position has always been like the quote I found - that its either never going to be released, or its going to be released solely to attempt to recover design costs and then it's going to die in a relatively short time frame.

LOL that's a THIRD shift. You've never said that before either, nor is that a reasonable read on either of the last to positions you posted. "rasping death rattle" would not recover profits and exist for a additional "relatively short time frame" (otherwise it's not a death rattle - you don't actually gain back your losses in a death), nor is it a "close out sell for the brand," as the brand is far larger than a single RPG book release. In my view, this is you shifting some more, to try and not accept responsibility for telling people for a year that it was never going to be released.

I think it's actually close to two years now since I started to get the impression the product was in big trouble and started saying so, but since I've made dozens of comments surely you've got lots of specifics already without me repeating them.

Sure. Here:

I don't care what they do with DNDNext and have no hopes for it (and frankly will be surprised at this point if it isn't vaporware), there is as I said a trade off.

So, I guess we should mark you down as being surprised it's being released, and an indication that perhaps your assumptions are in doubt on some level?

Out selling 4e would be a clear indication that it wasn't going to die, and was going to succeed. Over taking Pathfinder not only in the short term (which it could hardly fail to do upon release)

So we've gone from "I would be surprised if it is ever released" to "If it is released it's a death rattle for the brand" to "It will cover costs and then exist for only a short while" to "it could hardly fail to beat the industry leader and become the #1 RPG in the short term".

And you're claiming no shift at all in your position? Seriously? That's an awful lot of territory crossed with those variations on your view.

but after being out a year or more would likewise be a good start.

So by saying, "or more", are you saying that even after a year you'll still be saying "I was not wrong because I said 'or more' "?

But now I do think I'm being unfair. OK, so if it's the #1 RPG 366 days after 5e is first released in IcV2 (not including existing adventures as the release of course) I guess we can have this conversation again.

And of course, if it ends up I am wrong, I'll have to do my own mea culpas.

 

[Celebrim]

LOL that's a THIRD shift.

No it's not. If you are hearing it as a third shift, it's your desire to read it as a shift that is salient and not changes in my state. You act like this is an argument I'm trying to win. I'm sorry about whatever happened between you, 4e, your 4e predictions and the board, but I'm not the one burned and emotional about this and I don't need to get a big victory dance of "I was right". If you want an "I'm so sorry" song if I'm wrong, I'll be happy to sing it, but I got to tell you that I'll be chuckling as I do it. Whatever happens between me and 5e isn't going to cause me to feel whatever your feeling regarding predictions.

To be quite frank Mistwell, I don't know who you are. I can't really recall what your positions are - the way I could Hussar (we almost always disagree) or RavenCrowKing (we almost always agreed). I'm mildly flattered that you know enough about who I am and what I say to mark them down, which to be even more frank is often the point of me saying bold things. The whole idea of your self-appointed task of holding me responsible for things just makes me grin. Generally in real life with my friends, this long term bet thing is a contest resolved by the other buying each other lunch and is not taken with near the seriousness that you seem to be attaching to it.

Rasping death rattle <==> close out sale <==> attempt to recover sunk costs <==> desultory product release and abandonment of the brand. To me those are all attempting to express the same general idea in different ways.

So, I guess we should mark you down as being surprised it's being released...

Yes indeed. But you know, saying things like, "at this point I consider it vaporware" or "I'll be surprised if it isn't vaporware", seem to me to answer your question about whether I question assumptions in and of themselves. Yes, I am somewhat surprised they've pushed through all their design problems and managed to convince the people upstairs to keep the money flowing and actually do a print run and so forth. I've been on some software projects that equally surprised me that they reached a conclusion, but then didn't surprise me when the customer (rightly) was angry that the product was so grindingly slow it barely got the job done and didn't do half the things the sales engineers had promised. This has all the hallmarks of being equally disastrous, but let me ask you the counter question - just how low is your bar of success? Was Duke Nukem Forever's eventual publication proof of success, or was the 12 year production delay and release that flopped like a dead fish actually failure?

So by saying, "or more", are you saying that even after a year you'll still be saying "I was not wrong because I said 'or more' "?

Could you tell me why you have so much invested in wanting to be able to say, "I told you so"? I'll be happy to let you do that now. Just go, "Ha! Fifth edition IS coming out!! Muhahahahahaha!" Don't expect a big reaction though.

And of course, if it ends up I am wrong, I'll have to do my own mea culpas.

Mea culpas? Really? I feel like I'm missing a lot of history on this topic.

 

[Umbran]

Do either of you actually think this is getting you anywhere?

I don't see anything constructive about the conversation the two of you are having right now. We see no sign that either of you is going to really move an inch. So, is there a point to actually going through the motions? How about we just accept it as a given, and move on.

 

[MichaelSomething]

D&D is like pizza in that while we all think we know what it basically is, we find that people do it in ways that we completely hate.

Have you ever pizza with a knife and fork? Because that's an actual way of eating pizza...

 

[Hussar]

I've been beating this drum forever. 4E is not and never was anything like WOW. It's MTG as a table-top RPG (not that that is better; but it does seem less pejorative.)

I'd maybe go a step further. 4e wasn't really modelled on MMO play. It was modelled on MtG Online play.

I think that had Wotc's plans panned out, we'd see a healthy online presence similar to Magic's.