Well, let's look at it at another tier, at epic.
====== Created Using Wizards of the Coast D&D Character Builder ======
Keothi, level 30
Goliath, Fighter, Stoneblessed, Eternal Defender
Build: Battlerager Fighter
Fighter Talents: Battlerager Vigor
FINAL ABILITY SCORES
Str 28, Con 24, Dex 14, Int 10, Wis 16, Cha 12.
STARTING ABILITY SCORES
Str 16, Con 15, Dex 11, Int 8, Wis 14, Cha 10.
AC: 44 Fort: 44 Reflex: 39 Will: 37
HP: 228 Surges: 16 Surge Value: 57
TRAINED SKILLS
Endurance +27, Intimidate +21, Athletics +31
UNTRAINED SKILLS
Acrobatics +17, Arcana +15, Bluff +16, Diplomacy +16, Dungeoneering +18, Heal +18, History +15, Insight +18, Nature +20, Perception +18, Religion +15, Stealth +17, Streetwise +16, Thievery +17
FEATS
Level 1: Goliath Greatweapon Prowess
Level 2: Toughness
Level 4: Improved Vigor
Level 6: Weapon Expertise (Polearm)
Level 8: Power Attack
Level 10: Improved Initiative
Level 11: Unyielding Stone
Level 12: Mighty Battlerage
Level 14: Polearm Gamble
Level 16: Uncanny Dodge
Level 18: Paragon Defenses (retrained to Robust Defenses at Level 21)
Level 20: Deadly Axe
Level 21: Axe Mastery
Level 22: Martial Mastery
Level 24: Epic Reflexes
Level 26: Opportune Reflexes
Level 28: Epic Resurgence
Level 30: Martial Resolve
POWERS
Fighter at-will 1: Crushing Surge
Fighter at-will 1: Brash Strike
Fighter encounter 1: Bell Ringer
Fighter daily 1: Brute Strike
Fighter utility 2: Unstoppable
Fighter encounter 3: Advance Lunge
Fighter daily 5: Agonizing Assault
Fighter utility 6: Unbreakable
Fighter encounter 7: Come and Get It
Fighter daily 9: Bloodspike Sweep
Fighter utility 10: Into the Fray
Fighter encounter 13: Anvil of Doom (replaces Bell Ringer)
Fighter daily 15: Boulder Charge (replaces Brute Strike)
Fighter utility 16: Surprise Step
Fighter encounter 17: Buffeting Torque (replaces Advance Lunge)
Fighter daily 19: Controlling Thrust (replaces Agonizing Assault)
Fighter utility 22: Act of Desperation
Fighter encounter 23: Paralyzing Strike (replaces Come and Get It)
Fighter daily 25: Fighter's Resurgence (replaces Bloodspike Sweep)
Fighter encounter 27: Cruel Reaper (replaces Anvil of Doom)
Fighter daily 29: Storm of Destruction (replaces Boulder Charge)
ITEMS
Vorpal Halberd +6, Dawn Warrior Elderscale Armor +6, Torc of Power Preservation +6
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Here we have a level 30 goliath polearm fighter maximised for reach. Yes, his weapon reach is 4.
Awesome.
Using his Vorpal Large Halbard +6, his Brash Strike does:
+37 attack, 2d12+26 (av. 39) damage before
+35 attack, 2d12+35 (av. 48) damage after.
Going back to the formula:
(21+35-AC)*48 > (21+37-AC)*39
56*48 - 48AC > 58*39 - 39AC
2688 - 2262 > 9AC
426/9 > AC
AC < 47.33
Orcus, an Ancient Red Dragon has an AC of 48. If you have combat advantage or a +1 to hit by any means, power attack is optimal.
The Terrasque has an AC of 43.
This is with Brash Strike, which is a high damage at-will. Lower the damage, and Power Attack becomes more useful.
Power Attack is hardly a trap at all!
Strange, on paper it looks bad, until you start actually comparing to the monsters you'll actually use it on.