D&D 5E Signs & Portents (that we can read into) about the ETA of 5E

[jeffh]

Based on my own inquiries, twelve for a boxed set is as crazy as two, just in the opposite direction. (My own inquiries concerned a boxed set in a generally Eurogamish style, though it was for an RPG, not a boardgame.) Of course, I was talking about significantly shorter print runs than WotC would be, but I also don't have the pre-existing relationships with Chinese printers that WotC no doubt has.

 

[Mistwell]

Uhm, that sounds like a recipe for a shell game, with the ball being slave labor or toxic materials. "Look inside! This factory is clean and the workers are well paid and the ink is not toxic, see! And once the nosey business parter is back on the plane, they pass the work off to a labor camp.

It isn't just china, it can happen anywhere, maybe right beneath one's feet.

And that sounds like an insulting response. You think we're idiots, that we wouldn't verify information on a visit? That we don't talk to actual employees, and use Skype to re-verify later? That we don't get to know individuals, teach them how our systems operate, and work with them year after year to build relationships? If you do it right, you cannot just pass it off to another factory. If you visit, you don't do it for your health or just to ease your conscious, you do it to set up a system that will work, quality checks that work, in a factory you like with people you like.

I think people's perceptions of how China operates are badly skewed. Some things are bad, some are good. Some companies are bad, some are good. Like anywhere, you figure it out and you work with the good people and not the bad people. But overall, people in China are now making money, there is a middle class, and they're starting to buy their own manufactured products. Companies like mine are leaving in droves for Viet Nam and Cambodia because the labor prices in China are rising rapidly, and workers strike if conditions or pay are not good enough.

Average wages are rising 20% PER YEAR in China these days. It's not really for cheap manufacturing right now (Mexico has cheaper labor than China right now - and obviously much cheaper shipping), it's because Chinese workers and managers, in my opinion, are skilled at what they do.

But bottom line, don't pretend you can figure out how business works better than the people actually doing that business. You can quarterback from your coach about RPGs all you want, but don't tell me you know my business better than I know my business.

 

[Mistwell]

In an interview with the Tome Show, Mike Mearls says that it's four to six months printing in the US and twelve for a boxed product from China.

I imagine they can hammer out a small product release in four months, but for the numbers require from a new edition launch it'll be the longer six month mark.

They're not going to get much work done over Christmas. So end of January would be the earliest for a July release. At that point they might as well give it an extra 30 days of polish and editing and release at GenCon.

For what it is worth, we are printing diploma covers right now in China, and the turn-around time from ordering to delivery is 3 months. 3 weeks of that is shipping.

I am not aware of ANY simple manufactured product that would take a year to produce in China. You can get friggen complex made-to-order solar panels in less than half that time. So yeah, I'd really like to see a link to someone claiming it takes 12 months to get a boxed set from China.

 

[Jester David]

For what it is worth, we are printing diploma covers right now in China, and the turn-around time from ordering to delivery is 3 months. 3 weeks of that is shipping.

I am not aware of ANY simple manufactured product that would take a year to produce in China. You can get friggen complex made-to-order solar panels in less than half that time. So yeah, I'd really like to see a link to someone claiming it takes 12 months to get a boxed set from China.

I cited my source. So you could just google "Tome show interview Mike Mearls"
But I did it for you.
Source

It's one thing to order a few hundred diploma covers.
It's another to order 100,000 boxed sets that have books printed in one place (200,000 copies), maps in another, boxes in a third, and possibly pogs or cards in a fourth. Then have them all assembled and shipped.

--edit--

Okay, two corrections
first, Mearls actually says 9 months for boxed sets. Oops, my bad.
second, it's this podcast, at the 47 minute mark.

 

[Mercurius]

first, Mearls actually says 9 months for boxed sets. Oops, my bad.
second, it's this podcast, at the 47 minute mark.

Without having listened to the podcast, I wonder if this is his way of saying "We're not doing many box sets." 9 months is very prohibitive, I would think, especially on a product for a new edition. I mean, imagine if they went with a beginner's box set as the first Next product. Imagine the painful second guessing that would go on for those nine months - "Maybe we should have done saving throws differently? What if our treatment of multiclassing causes nerdrage?" Etc.

 

[Majoru Oakheart]

"Legacy of the Crystal Shard" released last Friday to premier stores and next Tuesday for the rest. Stats are in the packet.

They announced "Battle of Emridy Meadows" for the December Dragon as having a DD Next conversion.

Mid-February has "Scourge of the Sword Coast" (Sundering 3) on the list for Encounters and like all the Sundering modules is 3.5/4/DDN. Probably at retail although the schedule past December hasn't been posted.

Three months later (May) is "Dead in Thay" (Sundering 4) on the list for Encounters and 3.5/4/DDN. Likely retail in May.

Given that they announced 5 Sundering adventures and seem to be planning for 5, I expect the Sundering 5 adventure in July or August for the fifth Sundering season of Encounters.

Hmm, things seem to have changed. The e-mail that said that the playtest packet was going away also said that there were TWO more Sundering adventures coming out next year. Which would make the total only 4.

 

[jodyjohnson]

Hmm, things seem to have changed. The e-mail that said that the playtest packet was going away also said that there were TWO more Sundering adventures coming out next year. Which would make the total only 4.

The exact reference was "and coming early next year are two more D&D Next adventures".

Sundering 5 wouldn't be due until July or August which is no longer 'early next year'.

 

[Kinak]

Without having listened to the podcast, I wonder if this is his way of saying "We're not doing many box sets." 9 months is very prohibitive, I would think, especially on a product for a new edition

I can't speak for WotC, but everything Paizo has said suggests that boxed sets are really hard to make break even, let alone make profitable.

I mean, imagine if they went with a beginner's box set as the first Next product. Imagine the painful second guessing that would go on for those nine months - "Maybe we should have done saving throws differently? What if our treatment of multiclassing causes nerdrage?" Etc.

Not a good time. On the bright side, it would give you a few months to take a break or polish the heck out of the first book products.

Cheers!
Kinak

 

[Scrivener of Doom]

Hmm, things seem to have changed. The e-mail that said that the playtest packet was going away also said that there were TWO more Sundering adventures coming out next year. Which would make the total only 4.

Don't forget, they still have another team working on the maths.

Right now, 2 + 3 = 4 but they hope to have the numbers ironed out by early next year when we should see that 2 + 3 = 5.

 

[Majoru Oakheart]

The exact reference was "and coming early next year are two more D&D Next adventures".

Sundering 5 wouldn't be due until July or August which is no longer 'early next year'.

Let's be fair, the full text is:
"Until the next edition of the D&D tabletop roleplaying game officially releases, you can continue to play D&D Next adventures at home and at stores participating in D&D Encounters™. Ghosts of Dragonspear Castle™ is available now for purchase on www.dndclassics.com, and coming early next year are two more D&D Next adventures. These Sundering-themed adventures include the supplementary rules material from the D&D Next Playtest necessary for play."

One of those adventures that are coming "early next year" is coming out in May, which is the fifth month of the year. It's already pushing the definition of early.

Either way, the implication in that paragraph is: "We are removing the playtest rules from online, but don't worry...in the mean time you can play Ghosts of Dragonspear Castle, and the two more adventures we are releasing next year until the game comes out."

At the very least, it implies that if there IS a 5th Sundering adventure that it won't need to include the supplementary rules since the game will already be released by then.

It definitely reads, to me, as "Don't worry, this is what will be available between now and when the game comes out to tide you over."