How many groups are there where no one is online? It's the information age. Even those groups are going to get the memo eventually, unless they all live in the same cave.
Being online doesn't necessarily mean reading RPG news sites or anywhere you'd get the information.
You're right, I probably would be surprised and mistaken there. I guess some people do just dabble at cons. How many of those are going to start up a new campaign just because a new version is out? Seems like 5e would have to be pretty spectacular to convert once a year players into regular consumers. So, no point to releasing 5e at GenCon on their account.
Perhaps. However, I think a number of these people run campaigns that happen 3 times a year or something in their homes without paying much attention to the RPG scene in general. Some of them play other RPGs on a regular basis but just don't play D&D that often. However, a number of them USED to play D&D all the time and have kind of lapsed in order to play board games or video games all the time. Some of them play D&D once a year at cons as a way of reliving the "good old days" when they used to play D&D all the time.
A number of them are just looking for an excuse to start playing. And you're right, it would have to be pretty spectacular to convince these players. However, if you can convince them you can get a lot more customers.
But how many had never heard of 4e? That's more important.
A number. Can't say exactly how many. However, I knew the guy who was running the "Help people make characters for 4e" table. He was busy all weekend and the most common reason he was helping people make characters is because people would show up to the RPGA HQ booth and say "I used to play D&D, but I don't even know what edition it is anymore. I have a 3e character, is that still good?" only to be told that it was now 4e and they should go to his table and he'd teach them the game.
At the tables I was running more than one person showed up for the Living Greyhawk sessions I was running and said "We don't have a character and don't know how to play...what do we do? We played once last year...can we use those characters?" I had to direct them to the RPGA HQ in order to pick up a premade character and then pretty much teach them to play on the fly. They had no idea that there was a 4e.
Fair enough. Media exposure is important.
How about this: They can announce the release date at or before GenCon, and that date is near the end of the year. At GenCon they are releasing and running a preview adventure. They will announce that in June. Participants in the preview will have an opportunity to try out the "final" rules and then be given a survey regarding them. In addition, the preview adventure will be sold, and surveys posted online. The survey is designed to catch any last minute bugs or major dissatisfactions. An actual "playtest." They can then fix those bugs at the last minute instead of errataing the game after release.
You get the build up excitement, the exposure, and the bug testing all at once, and you can put out a more polished product by year's end.
I, personally, don't think that time is needed. We've been playing D&D Next weekly from the playtest for over a year now with no major issues. Other than a small amount of tweaking of the math and maybe a little more information on encounter building, and some more spells, feats, monsters and magic items it seems rather done to me. It doesn't even need very many more of these, either.
Other than that, I suppose your plan would work. I just think that there'd be too big of a gap before releasing products. February being the end of everything they have planned for D&D Next, having a preview adventure that comes out 6 months later and only tides people over for 4 more months before the real game comes out seems awfully slow. People are used to something new coming out about every 2-3 months.
It's certainly possible for them to string people along by breaking their word and releasing another playtest. However, if they were serious about this being the LAST playtest...then the game needs to come out at or before GenCon next year.
