D&D 5E So 5th edition is coming soon

GreyLord

Legend
Releasing everything, even just 4 races and 4 classes in one book will not happen. 3 books make more money.

If you only release one book with all the essential rules...many who would normally buy 3 books will ONLY buy that first book. They will ignore the rest, even if the rest have other classes like Barbarian, or Druid, or Paladin...and races such as the Half-Orc.

They will consider the basic one rulebook as the core...and everything else as an add on.

Simply put, 3 books for $35 each make more than one book at $35, or even one book at $50, or even one book at $75.

I think 5e is in development, and there are feelers out there seeing what works and what doesn't.

I think Computers and internet will be an important aspect of 5e, as that's the general trend in which literature (via Kindle, and other arenas), media, and entertainment are moving. I'm not certain how much it will be a part of it however...perhaps more...or a little less than it is now.

I think there are those who want a simpler game, and there are those who want an evolved game.

We'll see where it goes. Who knows, maybe the next sacred cow to bite the dust won't be HP, but will be stats...so instead of a stat from 3-18...it will be a stat between -1 to +4 (or +5 if you are a certain race).
 

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Personally I don't think 5e is anything beyond a restless thought in some game designers heads (certainly there must be idle discussions in WotC HQ in spare moments). Heck, there's doubtless still a pretty good inventory of 4e stuff out there. Essentials is billed as evergreen, surely they have a stockpile of those things.

Think about it this way, if 4e is selling pretty well, then there's little incentive to release a new edition. If it is selling terribly, then there's little incentive for Hasbro to run out and dump a lot of money into 5e when they just put a good chunk into rolling out a 4e that is still actively exploring the 21st century RPG landscape, and why would they think a new edition would be a bigger success? Unless someone over there has a VERY good story, backed by a lot of solid research, that provides some extra specially low risk roadmap to greater profit it isn't likely to happen.

You get new editions when an existing popular edition reaches end of life and tails off, or when the market has changed enough or grown enough to require a refresh. You don't get new editions right after an edition that is either very successful or very unsuccessful. At least not like this, instead you get a new owner of the product, and maybe THEY do a new edition simply because why else would you buy a product except to snazz it up and sell it more? I don't think 4e falls into any of these scenarios. They'll duke it out with what they've got for a few years with PF, build up DDI and explore its potential, and then maybe do a new edition. That might be 4 or 5 years from now. Could be longer. Could be 3 years, maybe, but I doubt it. I think they planned on 4e lasting a while.
 

You get new editions when an existing popular edition reaches end of life and tails off, or when the market has changed enough or grown enough to require a refresh. You don't get new editions right after an edition that is either very successful or very unsuccessful.
How many more products do you think 4e realistically has in it? How do you think essentials has influenced this? Thus when upon this timeline does support for DDI start to decrease? (The prediction of which is I think the true determiner of when they will want a new edition kicking in. It also highlights the importance for WotC of getting the VTT right.)

Personally I would say that 4e has been neither very successful nor very unsuccessful but somewhere in the upper middle (and still most certainly successful). As such, from my read based on your parameters I think a 3 year outlook makes some measure of sense.

Best Regards
Herremann the Wise
 

delericho

Legend
Releasing everything, even just 4 races and 4 classes in one book will not happen. 3 books make more money.

If you only release one book with all the essential rules...many who would normally buy 3 books will ONLY buy that first book. They will ignore the rest, even if the rest have other classes like Barbarian, or Druid, or Paladin...and races such as the Half-Orc.

They will consider the basic one rulebook as the core...and everything else as an add on.

Simply put, 3 books for $35 each make more than one book at $35, or even one book at $50, or even one book at $75.

Not necessarily true.

At present, some (very high) percentage of players buy the PHB1. Some (signficantly lower) percentage then go and buy the DMG1 and MM1. Those latter two books sell far fewer copies than the PHB1. (It would be interesting to see the numbers, but I'd expect they sell about a third as many copies - that may of course be wrong.)

However, there are also a certain number of people who might be interested in trying the game, but who take a look at that $100 buy-in, and take a look at the 800+ pages of reading that they have to do, all for a game they might like... and they give it a pass. (And yes, we know that the actual buy-in is much less; new players [/i]do not[/i].)

If, by switching to a one-book model, WotC could double the sales of their single Core Rulebook, this could well make up for the loss of sales of the DMG/MM. (Assuming the "one third" estimate I gave above.)

Additionally, it's probably better to get people in the door with a low entry point, so they might buy something else, rather than turn them away with a high entry point, so they definitely won't.

Also...

I think Computers and internet will be an important aspect of 5e, as that's the general trend in which literature (via Kindle, and other arenas), media, and entertainment are moving. I'm not certain how much it will be a part of it however...perhaps more...or a little less than it is now.

My guess is that to keep the hardcore interested, digital is the way to go. So, rather than a costly monthly hardback (at $30 a month, but which only a tiny and unknown fraction of players buy), they would be better served getting people to subscribe to DDI (at $6 to $15 per month, but with the resulting guaranteed monthly income stream).

(Is there any 4e supplement that sold through its entire print run? I bet there weren't many - WotC always have to estimate the number of copies to print, which is inevitably inefficient. Online that's not an issue - everyone gets everything, and pays a fixed price per month.)

If this is the case, then physical product is essentially a loss-leader, something that gets put out to entice new players, with a view to then converting as many to subscribers (by virtue of your excellent online materials). In this case, any losses due to going to one book instead of three are irrelevant - you're not in the business of selling books; the books are advertising for the real business of selling subscriptions, and so want to be placed in as many hands as possible.
 

Raith5

Adventurer
Whether 5ed is 3 months or three years away I just hope Dand D gamers opinions are courted in a more active and transparent way than in the lead up to 4ed (which I love ). I really do not understand the point of creating a game in secret with closed betas etc. The DandD community is ultimately the greatest asset in making a strong edition.
 

tuxgeo

Adventurer
< snip scads of good stuff >
. . .
Electronic Support

While it should not be required, the aim should be that the DDI should be so good as to be considered a "must have" accessory for the game.

I would introduce a three-tier pricing structure for the DDI. (Note: the following talks about 'players' and 'DMs' getting access to different things. That's just for ease of reading; in fact, all subscribers at a given tier would get all the appropriate things listed.)

At the Bronze tier, players would get access to the Character Builder and the Compendium. DMs would get access to the Monster Builder. (All these tools are familiar to us!)

At the Silver tier, players would get access to eDragon. DMs would get access to eDungeon, and the Adventure Builder and Campaign Builder tools. (See below...) And all subscribers would get access to the Virtual Tabletop.

At the Gold tier, DMs would get access to The Vault.

Some explanation about the various things:

. . .

The Vault
would be a repository of the collected genius of all DDI contributors (including exclusive content from the designers, of course!). It's the OGL again, but controlled by WotC. I can see that being a huge time-saver - instead of having to create whole new adventures/campaigns/maps/whatever, I can just pick the brains of the best of prior art.

(If I could see a way to make it work, I would like to offer some incentive to DMs who add to The Vault, or indeed those who run games on the VTT - some minor discount on their renewal, or periodic contests to showcase the best and see themselves in print, or something. But, as I said, I suspect that may be impractical.) . . .

Out of the boatload of good stuff delericho has said here, I would like to offer a variation on the scheme of Tiers:

At the (free) Glass Tier, users would get access to the Virtual Tabletop. They can't make characters, but they can play if they can find anyone else to make characters for them, and to run adventures for them. This gets the newbies into the experience by way of the front door as painlessly as possible.

Other Tiers as above. (The Vault, especially, is a magnificent idea!)
 

DaveMage

Slumbering in Tsar
I disagree completely.

They would need to ramp up their staffing considerably to do a 5e, and there's no evidence they have. Also, all of the stuff you're mentioning makes sense in the context of a reorganization, too - which we know happened, with the division that works on games, books, etc.

Exactly.

They split the design team up to come up with other ways of using the muscle of the Dungeons and Dragons brand name ASIDE FROM the RPG.

They just released essentials as the D&D RPG "evergreen" product. It's not "evergreen" if you replace it in less than a year or two. There will not be a 5E anytime soon. Now, they may release optional rules which allow for a different play experience (see 2E's "Player Option" books as an example) based on Essentials, but releasing a new edition would be counter to everything they're doing at the moment.
 


Nemesis Destiny

Adventurer
I have a very strong suspicion that 5e is more than "a restless thought in a designer's mind" - you can bet that there is probably a whiteboard* somewhere in WotC HQ where they are constantly adding to a list of ideas and concepts in game design that they want to explore Next Time. Stuff that doesn't work with 4e but is a Good Idea, stuff from previous editions that they want (or feel they are forced) to revisit, ideas about ways in which the design envelope can be pushed in the future.

Mind you, this doesn't imply that its release is even close to imminent ('cause it's not). But you can bet they're already thinking about it, and have been for quite some time.

*or something. Might be a intranet blog or wiki, might be a big notepad, or a collection of sticky notes, etc.
 

Raven Crowking

First Post
PERSONAL OPINIONS ONLY and I am only posting in case someone from WotC is reading, and it might make any difference at all. Hence, let me hope against hope and try a mention ([MENTION=697]mearls[/MENTION]).

Please do not announce 5e any time soon.

I don't play 4e. I don't play 3e anymore, either. But even I can see that you haven't scratched the surface of what 4e could be. What I would like you to do is:

(1) Create options that expand what you can do with the current ruleset. Specifically, options for faster, gridless combat. You've dropped the minis now, so there is no reason not to.

(2) Stop thinking One Delve Fits All Encounters. That format is the bane of the edition, IMHO, and has kept you from imagining what the system itself could really do. To whit; the biggest problem with the edition, IMHO, is the feeling of artificial constraint, and the largest contributor to that feeling is the Delve.

Some really cool ideas were being bandied about when you were designing 4e. A return to the Forbidden City of I1, for example. What happened to that? My guess is, it didn't fit the Delve format.

Really, take a look at any of the best loved modules of earlier editions. Now try to rewrite them into the Delve format, without losing the things that make them great.

(And if anyone here thinks that is easy, I double-dog-dare you to demonstrate it!)

(3) An edition lives or dies on the quality of its adventures. Go through your 4e materials, and look at all that great fluff. There is some really great material there. No, I am not joking. I am not a fan, but I know great ideas when I read them.

Now, take all that fluff, and see what you can do with it outside the Delve format. Make some really kick-ass adventures. You need some adventures that even folks who don't play 4e want to try. You need some adventures that are so good that some folks will try the game just to play in them. IMPORTANT NOTE: A great adventure is one that empowers the players and GM to make their own story out of interactions with the materials presented.

And the first adventure? Make it the most kick-ass of the kick-ass. And make it cheap, even if you have to run a loss. Because the value of buzz is great, my friends. It can work for you, as well as against you.​

I don't like 4e. I have invested a lot of time and effort in designing a ruleset that serves my specific needs. But you could still draw me in, if you did that. You could still make me want to like 4e. You could still make me give it another try. And, if the adventures really, really rocked, you could turn me around.

And, if you could turn me around, well....let's say that there are easier folks out there to turn around.

But I think 5e, now, is shooting yourself in the foot. Or the head. IMHO. YMMV. The people who don't like 4e will be saying "Told you so!" and the people who do like 4e will be upset. There's just no winning that way. 5e has to ride a crest of optimism about your design work when it comes. You cannot be your own opposition.

Best of luck with whatever you decide.



RC
 
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