Survivor (Spoilers)

[Silver Moon]

Well, a week ago we saw Cathy and Lex mess up royally and end their tenure in the game, and last night we saw Amber and Boston Rob do the same.

Here's how I see it. They've screwed over both Cathy & Lex, so have lost both of their jury votes. Shi Ann is gone next week, so they might lose her vote too. They've then promised both Jenna & Rubert AND Alicia & Tom "Final Four" spots. So once they're down to six they will have to break their word to one of those pairings and they lose those two votes too. So as long as the final two consists of one of them and anybody else, than the anybody else wins. Their only hope is to be both of the final two spots, but I'm betting that when it gets down to five the other three will also figure that out and get rid of one of those two.

What Rob and Amber really needed to do last night, and certainly had the ability to manipulate the others to accomplish, would have been to make sure that it came out a 4 to 4 tie with Cathy and probably Jenna. That way both Jenna and Rupert could have still gone on believing that Rob & Amber kept their alliance, and if Jenna lost the tie-breaker then all the better.

 

[ASH]

I agree with you on that.

I just wonder what will happen next week. I just can not understand why everyone can not see how much power they seem to have given Rob, and Amber. I mean one mention to Lex that keeping Amber would put him in Rob's favor.. and he does it..??? Cathy saw it. What I want to happen, Amber gone, I think that Jenna and Rupert think that they can trust Rob... I am pretty sure that Alicia and Big Tom dont think that they can trust Rob at all.

I really dont want Rob or Amber to win.. Its all up in the air right now. I see a 3-4 vote next week, but if Rob looses Immunity, he could go at any point... hmm.. I am enjoying this season a great deal more now than I was at first.

 

[Sarigar]

What will be interesting is if it is Rob and Amber. Do they get rid of the mouth or the body?

 

[DMScott]

Their only hope is to be both of the final two spots, but I'm betting that when it gets down to five the other three will also figure that out and get rid of one of those two.

At this point, I think RobandAmber's entire strategy is based around being the final two, so I don't think there's any distinction between their only hope and the plan they've laid out. They really seem to believe they can keep on manipulating the vote to bring that about. It'll be interesting to see if anyone ever proves them wrong - everybody who's shown much desire to take the lead position away from Rob is gone, but I'm hoping somebody will step up before it's too late.

I think this week is really critical - if RobandAmber can get by the 7-person crunch, they only need to convince one person to vote with them to stay strong. This is the last week where it's critical they juggle multiple alliances, next week it's helpful if they do but if necessary they can tough out a rebellion.

What Rob and Amber really needed to do last night, and certainly had the ability to manipulate the others to accomplish, would have been to make sure that it came out a 4 to 4 tie with Cathy and probably Jenna. That way both Jenna and Rupert could have still gone on believing that Rob & Amber kept their alliance, and if Jenna lost the tie-breaker then all the better.

Ye gods, that would've been a mess. It looks good on paper, but as soon as people talk to each other that sort of blatant manipulation would be exposed. If they'd done that, I expect Amber would have been voted out.

IMHO, RobandAmber are doing exactly what they need to right now - stay in control and pick off everyone who might organize the troops against them. It'd work a lot more smoothly if nobody knew about their alliance (or even if there was some possibility they might not go to the final two together), but that cat was let out of the bag early.

I'm rooting for Shi Ann to win immunity this week, just to throw some drama into the vote.

 

[Silver Moon]

I'm rooting for Shi Ann to win immunity this week, just to throw some drama into the vote.

It sure would, but when has she ever won an immunity for herself or her team? I still think the breaking point will come at five, where Rob will have to win the immunity to get by that point.

 

[ASH]

I also see the breaking point at 5. I really dont see shi-ann winning any immunity, but she is very capable at the intellegence and puzzle ones..
Now that I think about it, i have not seen any food challenges this time have I..?? Or am i forgetting it.?

 

[Silver Moon]

I'm rooting for Shi Ann to win immunity this week, just to throw some drama into the vote.

You sure called that one. The official name of the episode last night was "Stupid people, stupid stupid people". It was Shi Ann's quote, but I think that you could find somewhere in the episode to apply it to all of them.

So Tom should now know that Alicia was stabbed in the back except I believe that he voted for her too. Shi Ann will be next on the chopping block unless she either wins immunity again or actually convinces Tom & Rob that Rupert has to go next. Either way you look at it, none of the three current jurors will ever vote for Boston Rob to win this thing and he will stabbing at least one more in the back, so he's never going to win.

 

[DMScott]

The official name of the episode last night was "Stupid people, stupid stupid people". It was Shi Ann's quote, but I think that you could find somewhere in the episode to apply it to all of them.

Yeah, I was pretty happy when Shi Ann won, and then pretty flabbergasted when they dumped Alicia. There was a comment at tribal council about nobody stepping up and taking a leadership role in determining the boot, and I guess this is the result. The early exit of prime schemers such as Richard, Colby, and Lex is really starting to hurt the show, I don't know if any of the remaining contestants has a real good idea how they're going to end up in the final two.

So Tom should now know that Alicia was stabbed in the back except I believe that he voted for her too.

Yup, Alicia was the only dissenting vote. RobandAmber probably bought Tom's vote by promising him a final three spot (and perhaps Rupert and/or Jenna did the same thing).

Shi Ann will be next on the chopping block unless she either wins immunity again or actually convinces Tom & Rob that Rupert has to go next. Either way you look at it, none of the three current jurors will ever vote for Boston Rob to win this thing and he will stabbing at least one more in the back, so he's never going to win.

At this point, I'd vote for him just because nobody else is stepping up to play the game. But I do imagine he's the most unpopular with the jury so far. Given that and the likelihood he'll make an immunity run, Amber should have a big target right now - it'd be a good plan to get rid of her now and fight it out to see who gets to stand next to Rob at the jury. I dunno if any of the others can carry out that kind of plan, unfortunately.

 

[Silver Moon]

Amber should have a big target right now - it'd be a good plan to get rid of her now and fight it out to see who gets to stand next to Rob at the jury.

Yeah, at this point being opposite Rob as the final two is the place to be, which may be the only thing to keep him in this. He must be counting on making a "I deserve it" speech, although the prior two Survivors showed that the great schemer doesn't make it to the final two. I hope Shi Ann is smart enough to try to swing an anti-Amber vote, but don't think she'll round up enough support to pull it off.

 

[JoeBlank]

I hope Shi Ann is smart enough to try to swing an anti-Amber vote, but don't think she'll round up enough support to pull it off.

I agree, with your hope and your doubt. I've never been a big Shi Ann fan, but I was glad to see her win immunity just to shake things up a little. Now, if she had not been such a bitch about it then she might have been able to win some people over and bring down RobandAmber. Instead, they are all itching to get rid of her new, moreso than before.

There is nothing wrong with being proud of yourself when you win something, but throwing it in the other players' faces is bad sportsmanship, and does not win you any friends.