To say ... I'm finding the use of the word "cover" to be part of the confusion in this discussion.
Similarly, "obstacle". There are to many meanings, imprecise meanings, to gain much traction.
A leafy branch can provide total cover, but that would hardly stop most attacks. And maybe should not stop spells with attack rolls, say, damaging rays.
Also to say, the distinction between an image in a mirror and a direct image are more or less meaningless. (The use of "virtual" in describing images seems rather a confusing and un-useful notion for physics classes.) For example, having thick glasses, what I see is a distorted view of what a person who has 20/20 vision sees. Everything that I see is as if through a mirror. (Actually, you could put special prisms on glasses which invert the images. Eventually, the brain adapts and one can "see" normally using such glasses.)
It seems the real issue is whether one can construct a path from the caster to the target using one or another senses which locate things in space. That is, how the target is perceived matters less than what you do with the sense data which is received in regards the target.
It does seem to matter how the magic gets to the target, which gets in to the properties of the path that must be taken. Some spells have a physical component which must traverse a straight line. Some spells seem to just "come in to effect" at the target. In 3.5E days, walls of force were particular in that they extended into the Ethereal plane, and that sometimes mattered.
Note that a fireball targets a "point in space", with no notion of seeing the point in the spell description. Based on that, I'd allow a fireball to be fired down a hallway beyond sight range, perhaps with a check to see if the fireball went exactly straight. (In 3.5E days, we would have called for a spellcraft check.) Similarly, casting a fireball through a fog cloud would be fine -- adding something ad-hoc to allow inaccuracy.
TomB