TheSword
Legend
Well there’s knowing where something is - and knowing how to get there. I know Italy abuts the south eastern region of France but without directional signage and a say nav I might need directions to get there.Well, we (and Gandalf) know Sauron didn't know where the Shire was, because the black riders go round asking for directions.
The rest is just speculation.
I think there is a lot of quoting unreliable narrators in Tolkeinism… and a whole lot of speculation and assumption. We should be more comfortable with the idea of the uncertain - allowing space for development.