The hobbit doesn't wait for an answer jumping straight for the rope, he picks it up and examines the evidence more closely. You say this area is generally safe, and Kurin assures us a dwarf wouldn't cut a knot unless he must. Hmm... Hobnob weighs the conflicting assertions, he takes a long draw of his pipe, rolling the rope in his hand; clearing his mind of everything but the evidence at hand.
The rope fibers are stretched slightly - Hobnob, being from the Shire, doesn't have much knowledge of boats, but he's seen the same type of strain on carts pulling heavy loads. It seems like the boat was loaded fairly heavily. But the rope didn't snap - it was definitely cut cleanly by a sharp knife. Which suggests that it was Borin or Óin who did the cutting - no dwarf would ever carry a dull knife.
What Kurin said has the ring of truth - Hobnob is certain that the dwarves did feel that they had to leave in a hurry. Which means that either Holti is lying when he said that it was mostly safe here, or perhaps that the dwarves wanted to leave the village behind in a hurry... they would have been wearing bright gold and dressed richly, as envoys to the King of the Eagles - a tempting target for the impoverished villagers. Were they worried about thievery? But Holti and the elders seemed so open and friendly, Hobnob hates to think ill of them.
Holti, I'd like your village to have this, thanks for your hospitality. says Hobnob as he stands from his contemplation. The hobbit retrieves about a days worth of his own pipeweed, a considerable amount indeed, and gifts it to Holti; gauging his reaction.
Holti's mouth stretches open in a wide grin. He bows deeply in thanks and sniffs at the pouch's rich aroma.
"Thanks for your kingly gift!" he cries. The hobbit is certain that he is being utterly sincere. These men are clearly not thieves.
So why would the dwarves flee so quickly? Perhaps it is only
usually safe, and they were surprised by some marsh creature... Hobnob sucks on his own share of weed as he ponders.
The rich pipeweed fills his lungs and puffs out, swirling around the hobbit's head until he is wreathed in his own cloud of mist. As he contemplates the eddies in the smoke, Hobnob is struck by how easy it is to see patterns there, as if little capering figures were dancing around his head. The mists of the marsh trick the eye in almost the same way.
Of course - Holti said it was safe here, but the dwarves didn't know that! They rushed down to make camp without stopping to speak to the locals. They must seen shapes moving in the fog, and whether it was a rare beast that ventured close to the village, or just phantasms, they would have felt threatened and departed as hastily as possible.
[sblock=OOC]
1 AP in Perception for your Insight roll. And then a second in Perception for your Search roll invoking Smoking. (If I'd done it the other way around, you'd only have gotten 1 AP for succeeding at Search with or without the Smoking trait, and then Insight wouldn't get another because it wasn't a very difficult task and you didn't invoke a trait... Funny how that works.)
[/sblock]
Holti accepts Hobnob's offer of trade as gladly as the pipeweed, and hurries off up the stair to bring the news to the elders. They will look for you on your journey back - if you return.
Now that you are alone on the landing, do you have more investigation you want to do, or are you ready to launch your own boat into the swamp?