D&D 5E The RPG or the Brand?

[weldon]

We've had a lot of discussion about the release schedule for D&D and if this will be successful for the business and the players. I'm really curious about how the brand fares over the next couple years.

These are the things I keep mulling over:

• D&D has not grown in popularity as much as other "geeky" brands like superheroes and LOTR/Hobbit. (according to WotC?)
• The RPG team wants to bring in new players
• The new D&D team is focused on creating compelling stories, not lots of products (splatbooks, etc.)
• The new products are focused on big storylines that run through the RPG, MMO, comics, etc.
• Boys buy toys with strong narrative elements (according to LEGO group)
• Superheroes and LOTR/Hobbit are based on properties with strong narrative

I don't really have any good info here, but I imagine that D&D is a $10M business. Feel free to correct me if I'm way off, but the size of the team, the size of WotC, the size of D&D compared to Magic, common wisdom of $150k+ revenue per employee, etc. put me in this ballpark.

Growing the RPG 20% means $2M in revenue. Selling the movie rights to Universal means $5M plus a percentage of the gross (pending Hasbro v Sweatpea lawsuit). A successful movie could mean 10s of millions.

Is there any other opportunity for D&D to make as much money as a big movie could bring in? I can't think of anything.

How does that opportunity drive what Hasbro wants to do with D&D? How does it impact the stories that the R&D team is working on for the brand?

How does D&D develop these stories that drive movies and sell toys?

 

[Morrus]

I personally never engaged in the brand beyond the game, with the exception of the Dragonlance Chronicles and Legends. I've not seen any of the movies through, and never bought any D&D-adorned clothing, toys, etc.

Whether something make it brandwise - Turtles, Transformers, LotR, ponies, superheroes, whatever - doesn't really have anything to with quality, narrative or anything. We all know the Transformer movie are utter rubbish. As is that 50 Shades of Grey nonsense. It's a combination of luck and marketing.

So how does D&D do it? I just keeps trying until it strikes lucky and grabs the zeitgeist momentarily. Once it does that once, it's sorted for life.

 

[TerraDave]

A lot of speculation in the first post...

Without guessing on any of those things, we do know that in its current incarnation D&D is an again dominant tabletop game, with only one real competitor--itself a D&D spinoff. D&D is also a pretty good set of board games, video games, fantasy fiction...but not remotely dominant in any of those areas.

Do you go with what you are good at? Or what you are kinda-good to so-so at? Right now they are doing both, but we know the thing they are actually good at is also the big seller.

Time will tell of course.

 

[TerraDave]

...until it strikes lucky and grabs the zeitgeist momentarily...

It did that. I was all zeitgeist. 35 years ago. Thats why many of us are here.

Can zeitgeist strike twice?

 

[Mercule]

As much as I hate to say it, it sounds like they need to invest in campaign settings. Drizzt used to sell a lot of books. Dragonlance sold quite a few books.

I see a couple options for doing so:
1) Really push the Realms. As much as I despise the setting, it's got the largest established fan base from which to build. Screw the "D&D" movie rights. Market a "Forgotten Realms: Dark Elves in Spandex" movie, but make sure you retain the rights and find a really good writer/director team to helm it. Heck, as long as they keep the rights, they'd be ahead if they offered 90% of the net to get the right talent. Maybe even publish a "special edition" of the PHB that's labeled as "Forgotten Realms RPG Core Rules" and has a bit more depth to the Realms bits (human regional names, gods, backgrounds) while removing non-Realms stuff (other gods).

2) Diversify. As #1, but go a little bit lighter on the Realms and make use of other IP. I think Eberron has a ton of potential, here, as does Ravenloft. Sure, there isn't quite as much material, but there's enough. You also wouldn't have to worry as much about "Expanded Universe" issues clogging the pipes. Heck, a movie version of I6 would probably do fine -- at least as good as the "Hansel and Gretel" movie.

3) Try to recreate the magic of Dragonlance, but on a larger scale. Look for talent, first, then verify that they're at least warm to the game. Let them go nuts on a pseudo-Medieval story as long as it can be reasonably converted to a 5E module. Build the setting from scratch, including potentially dropping halflings for kender, etc. This gets rid of any concerns with legacy quality control.

All the above assume the adventure paths are built from the movies. They could go the other direction, though, and focus on having great APs and promote the snot out of them. People are willing to fully immerse themselves in some video games because of the story. Sell the RPG as a group experience on the same lines. Just make sure the hard-bound AP books have enough side-bars to help the new DM run it, including a reference to the Basic Rules and some pregen characters.

While the movie route might be the most profitable route, I think it's pretty risky. The AP route is a lot safer. Even if the sidebars annoy some veterans, they're easy enough to ignore, really.

 

[weldon]

Whether something make it brandwise - Turtles, Transformers, LotR, ponies, superheroes, whatever - doesn't really have anything to with quality, narrative or anything. We all know the Transformer movie are utter rubbish. As is that 50 Shades of Grey nonsense. It's a combination of luck and marketing.

While luck and marketing have their place, all of the examples you've listed have a strong narrative and developed characters. Disney is really the premier example here. A large part of their business is "characters" including Mickey Mouse, Princesses, Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar and so on.

Can D&D grow as a brand (outside the RPG) without characters?

 

[Morrus]

While luck and marketing have their place, all of the examples you've listed have a strong narrative and developed characters.

They really don't. Have you seen Michael Bay's movies?

They have a lot of explosions; I'll give them that. Strong narrative and developed characters? Not a chance!

WotC has narrative and characters up the wazoo. They don't have the luck or the mass marketing.

 

[The Grassy Gnoll]

Personally I prefer the approach of creating scenarios rather than splat books. It says "we have faith in the game, the rules, as they are". Releasing a shedload of additional/alternate rule sets soon after the release of the core rules (which itself took a LOT of effort and time to produce), kind of acts as an admission of sin by omission.
However, movies do = £/$/€. But, that said, TV -especially the HBO, Walking dead, Breaking Bad, Wolf Hall type of production values - gives longer story arcs and is increasingly popular for The Talent, meaning some serious creeds can attach themselves. There may well be a tv station eyeing up GoT and wanting an angle to capitalise on the fan base. There is a lot of coin to be made from a successful TV show, too.
It would need strong writing, and looking at both TWD and GoT, these are both built on strong, successful creative properties. What does D&D have to tie into to give it that story?
I would argue that Dragonlance offers the strongest case for an existing canon property with a legacy, strong characters, and a defined story arc.

 

[weldon]

A lot of speculation in the first post...

The only real speculation is the guess at $10M revenue. Everything else has a source.

Do you go with what you are good at? Or what you are kinda-good to so-so at? Right now they are doing both, but we know the thing they are actually good at is also the big seller.

Good point. The R&D team is good at making rulebooks. Hasbro is good at selling games, toys, and sometimes movies. Can the things that Hasbro is good at work for D&D?

While the movie route might be the most profitable route, I think it's pretty risky. The AP route is a lot safer.

Sure, but way, way more money in movies. There's a proven market for APs and WotC knows the relative size of that market for a successful book. The licensing fees being discussed if Hasbro can sell the rights to Universal (to be decided in March) will dwarf the revenues from a whole series of APs.

 

[Eric V]

Re: Transformers and narrative.

Yes, the movies are garbage, but the narrative had already been set years ago, when the toys came out, then the cartoon...they even got Peter Cullen to voice Optimus Prime again.

That guaranteed an audience: the people who played with the toys and watched the cartoon in their youth. Then, the special effects come in, though still no story.