Just looking at the rest of your post, it appears there is quite a bit of semantic gymnastics and assumption being used to back up this hyperbole.
We have very few data points. The data points we have, they tell a story of each edition outselling the previous one, in terms of core book sales. The Red Box in 1989 seems the one anomaly. I can say that the Wizards folks I know well with whom I've talked to (employees who have no reason to blow smoke) have been blown away by the 5E numbers. I could not share specifics, even if I have them.
If I saw huge swaths of PF folks moving back over to 5E, I'd agree in a heartbeat that 5E must be doing very well indeed. If I saw a huge drop in OSR movements rather than growth
In all honesty and with respect, I think that's an erroneous line of thinking. Wizards doesn't need to convert a Pathfinder person over to 5E. They don't need to get that Shadowrun player, Numenera player, etc. What they need is to consistently bring in new players as customers and to grow the overall hobby. Most gamers play several games. The edition war concept of Pathfinder vs D&D is mainly false. Tons of gamers play both games. It happens even more when we get to different genres, where gamers often gravitate between 5E and other RPGs (Eclipse Phase for sci-fi, L5R for Asian fantasy, Shadowrun for cyberpunk, Spycraft and Gumshoe for espionage, etc.). Wizards would be making a huge mistake if they were to focus on winning those people solely over to their game. Instead, they should focus on making the game accessible and desirable for a wide variety of gamers and especially for new gamers. As the CEO said, the competition is other forms of entertainment, not other RPGs.
When I travel for work I always visit stores. I do see people who play Pathfinder trying and liking 5E. But, I don't think it is about a switch. Many may very well do that to some extent (playing 5E most of the time - I see plenty of that), but these people are clearly still huge fans of Paizo and still buying plenty of product from them. That's absolutely excellent. The OSR crowd should not decrease because of 5E. In a healthy hobby, both will grow and both will invigorate each other. Look at Gen Con: Paizo and D&D both had their largest organized play attendance ever, in the same year. That's absolutely what we want. It's even what both companies should want! There is no reason why Paizo has to drop in sales for 5E to succeed and no reason why OSR must shrink for any other fantasy RPG to do well.
The store I've started to gravitate to when I travel on my current project has 4 8-person tables of 5E on Wednesdays (and many more on weekends). My DM is a relatively new DM. She began with Pathfinder and is a huge fan, but is enjoying 5E. She's an excellent judge. The combination of PFS and 5E has given her incredible tools and experience to become the judge she is. She's better for the existence of both games. If she ends up digging into classic adventures, whose to say she won't play some OSR and learn even more about that style of play - further benefiting her 5E tables? This is how the hobby should work.
