Thoughts? I think you're mistaken on why Dex is considered a "god-stat." Its mainly because of adding into Initiative, and the bias towards ranged attacks being really good against melee only monsters, as well as the mistaken belief that Dexterity is a better save than Strength, mainly because of dragonbreath and certain iconic spells. Turns out? If you take out dragons, Strength is actually a more common save among monsters than Dexterity. Even including spells.
Adding Dex into AC is actually a DRAWBACK of the stat rather than a bonus. Heavy armored peeps have no deed of raising their stats for AC, and can invest in anything they want. It gives freedom. Dex-based characters need Dex for raising their AC, or they end up squishy.
The real reason for Dex being god stat is (basically) always going first combined with he ability to kite enemies at range, and never being hit. This alteration of yours is not really going to change anything for the better, imho. Sure, if you get into melee range, the dex-characters will really be squishier, but ultimately not that relevant for most of the time.
The big change is going to be for STR-based medium armor wearers, who now dump Dex, and for those with unarmored defense / mage armor, who's AC is now going to skyrocket. Which is worth considering.
So, lets consider. Barbarian now dumps Dex. His AC is bsaically going to be calcuated using either Unarmored Defense or Light Armor, depending if +x armor or high Con. Fair enough. This gives him a rather high AC as time goes on, and coupled with high HP/THP and damage reduction. Is this desirable from a game stand point? Its going to make them very, very tough. The lower AC tends to be seen as a balancing feature, not a bug.
Bards. Most bards either go pure caster, or Dex. From what I understand, even the new melee college (swords) is going to be about light finesse weapons rather than large weapons. We're going to be using Light Armor here mainly. And that's going to hurt the AC of the bards, pushing them more into ranged than melee, which isn't desirable. Valor bards, who get Medium Armor, can go Strength. This will indeed let them drop dex for the build, reducing a bit of MADness. So this will indeed make the bard a bit melee-enabled, if you're interested in that. However, it is something a bit out of the norm, so the benefits aren't great.
While we're on the subject of pure casters, lets talk about them for a tick. Most of them don't actually get hit, wear medium armor, or have something like Shield to protect themselves. Even Lore bards get Cutting Words to help defend themselves. It'll be an AC boost for most, but unnecessary - I've seen low Dex, low Con spellcasters do perfectly well and avoid most damage; if anything, it'll remove more threat, and making things a bit less of a danger, which I don't like. Clerics and druids seem to be the only ones who would be benefiting, and only if we're talking about wearing medium armor. Really won't be affecting anyone else, especially not the weapon-using, heavy armored clerics. Its been a while since I played a land druid or back row cleric, so I won't comment on how useful or not here.
Now, for caster-turned-melee people? Such as the bladesinger and blade'lock? Well... honestly they're both Dex-based because of AC concerns. Well, that and bladesinger is elven, which is a Dex race in the first place. But, putting racial restrictions aside, it will make it possible to have a bit more freedom with weapon choices with these melee casters.
Well, my final analysis is this - your proposed change is helpful for those that want to be a gish type, spawning from one of the full caster classes (except cleric, cause heavy armor), and allow them to be more flexible with weapon choices. I think it would be harmful in other cases.