D&D 5E Volo's 5e vs Tasha's 5e where do you see 5e heading?

Based on what we know for book sale goals (100,000+ is their goal for each book, minimum), and what we know of DMsGyild sales (they ain't that high for even best sellers), ther ROI to fill DMsGuild gaps might be there. We have seen instances where WotC has superceded DMsGuild material (such as the new Ravenloft book), and I am sure if they see a market they will make a move.

I think they've already screwed the pooch on this one. But there are a lot of mechanics to mess with for their own tweak. My weapon systems are different from HeavyArms'.

But like I said before: There are only so many big wow settings in MTG and classic D&D to pull from to continue their trends. So I could see it in their 4th rules book.
 

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I think they've already screwed the pooch on this one. But there are a lot of mechanics to mess with for their own tweak. My weapon systems are different from HeavyArms'.

But like I said before: There are only so many big wow settings in MTG and classic D&D to pull from to continue their trends. So I could see it in their 4th rules book.
They only screwed the pooch if they missed out. Focusing on more vital options is the opposite of "screwing the pooch," if it is better for ROI and overall engagement.
 

I don't think the DMsGuild has the number of sales that you think it does...

The current top 2 "Most Popular DMs Guild Titles" are Electrum best sellers. Meaning they have sold between 251-500 copies.
There are exactly 64 titles that have reached Adamantine status, meaning they have sold over 5001 copies.
And 202 Mithral products w/ 2501 - 5000 copies sold. You can count the others here if someone is so inclined; Dungeon Masters Guild

I would be pleasantly surprised if just one of those hit 50,000 copies. Halfway to the minimum WotC probably wants/looks for.

Sure, WotC would love to have been able to cherry pick the most successful after the fact. But that's not the way reality, or business, works. For them to put out a book, any book, requires a huge upfront cost for them. Labor, facilities, insurance, printing, distribution, marketing, et al. Instead they have the Guild, where they get ~25 percent with no risk, virtually no upfront costs, and very little in the way of maintenance costs (a couple of employees who have to deal with DMsG issues on a part time basis).
 

I've used an armor includes dr based on type(1 point light 2 medium 3 points heavy) and it was pretty trivial in that it allowed me to reduce hp bloat a bit since there were almost certain to be several points from the big guns going away each round from those who played the odds for their favor with multiple attacks. while those who put it all on one attack had a bigger bite. It was fairly trivial to use
Now, how does that apply to monsters? If I have a tough hide monster, do I get DR? What kind of DR? And, doesn't this basically completely remove the Heavy Armor feat? Just a couple of issues right off the bat.


You are missing the point. We don;t care it its not compatible. We don't care if it's extra work. Often it isn't as editing a monster's AC and adding DR is less work that tracking 100 more HP in combat. Or editing a monster's attacks instead of adding 4 more monsters to a room.
The whole OSR movement is built on taking a simple base system and jamming all sorta of rules you prefer on top of it.

That's the point of OPTIONAL RULES. I as the DM am choosing to add what I want and what workload I want and what logic I want the game to follow. You as another DM, don't have to do it.

Again,I don't see the harm, of giving me a book with rules I want and taking my money? Are you saying WOTC doesn't want my money?
Of course they want your money. They want you to buy MORE than one book though. What's the point of selling you a book that means that every other book they produce is no longer of use (or at least is much less useful) to you? And, while you might not care about it not being compatible, I don't think you can speak for everyone. The whole OSR movement is a rounding error when we're talking about the numbers that WotC expects. A single 5e WotC title has likely sold more copies than all the OSR books combined.

They didn't put any of this in their polling.
The 2nd highest Gear book on DMGuild is the Weapon and Armor addition and variant. It's 3rd for the entire site.

The idea that few wants this variants are false.

It's not splitting the market. It's offering options.
It's like how every burger places is offerng a chicken sandwich and many offer a plant-based burger.

It absolutely IS splitting the market. It's splitting their target market (5e players) by making any subsequent purchase more difficult to use. And, remember, before we go putting those goalposts back on roller skates, we're not talking a single change like Armor as DR. We're talking about a shopping list of fundamental game play changes - that list had what, ten, fifteen changes on it? Focusing on one thing, and then claiming how easy it is, misses the point.

There is zero chance that WotC is going to do something like this. There is no upside for WotC at all. Sure, you get a book you want, but, no one else wants it, and now, you can't use any other WotC book without first rewriting most of it. So, some enterprising 3rd party publisher starts banging out supplements that use those variant rules. Which module are you going to buy? The WotC offering du jour or that 3rd party module that incorporates your new rule changes?

And, let's say that there is a real market there. There is a sizable number of fans that incorporate these variant rules, but, not enough for WotC to directly market to - say, 20% of gamers. WotC is still going to market directly to that 80% - they'd be stupid not to. And poof, they've just created another company who spends the next decade chipping away at all the goodwill WotC has built up over the past decade ("LOOK, THIS company responds to its fans, WotC doesn't care about what you want!") and piggybacking on WotC's marketing dollars.

You still haven't provided any upside for WotC to do this.
 

Now, how does that apply to monsters? If I have a tough hide monster, do I get DR? What kind of DR? And, doesn't this basically completely remove the Heavy Armor feat? Just a couple of issues right off the bat.
That's part of the problem with forcing gms to roll their own solutions. With monsters there should be an adjustment formula based on CR or something. The 3.5 MM had a pretty good section on it somewhere in the customizing monsters bit & I've seen another spin that did something like add 4-5ac & cut hp by 40-60%. I could dig through the 3.5monster manual trying to find the relevant section's page number & see if I can remember how I did that part but it's late & precovid was long ago so I guess good luck in rebuilding the vaguely described wheel from almost scratch if you were actually interested. Keep in mind that this is one of the easier low hanaging fruit the sysem isnt designed with multiple components that will combat your attempts.5

Of course they want your money. They want you to buy MORE than one book though. What's the point of selling you a book that means that every other book they produce is no longer of use (or at least is much less useful) to you? And, while you might not care about it not being compatible, I don't think you can speak for everyone. The whole OSR movement is a rounding error when we're talking about the numbers that WotC expects. A single 5e WotC title has likely sold more copies than all the OSR books combined.
actually that bolded statement is wrong. It should read "They want you to buy MORE than zero books". The empty lip service in PR material & lucy with a football mechanics actually making it into print is very strongly pushing me that way. The fact that tcoe & ravenloft were back to back empty just before a5e was released & expectation that wotc will publish nothing but one maybe two adventures before levelup reaches heavy duty playtesting or even release makes that a serious possibility.
It absolutely IS splitting the market. It's splitting their target market (5e players) by making any subsequent purchase more difficult to use. And, remember, before we go putting those goalposts back on roller skates, we're not talking a single change like Armor as DR. We're talking about a shopping list of fundamental game play changes - that list had what, ten, fifteen changes on it? Focusing on one thing, and then claiming how easy it is, misses the point.

There is zero chance that WotC is going to do something like this. There is no upside for WotC at all. Sure, you get a book you want, but, no one else wants it, and now, you can't use any other WotC book without first rewriting most of it. So, some enterprising 3rd party publisher starts banging out supplements that use those variant rules. Which module are you going to buy? The WotC offering du jour or that 3rd party module that incorporates your new rule changes?

And, let's say that there is a real market there. There is a sizable number of fans that incorporate these variant rules, but, not enough for WotC to directly market to - say, 20% of gamers. WotC is still going to market directly to that 80% - they'd be stupid not to. And poof, they've just created another company who spends the next decade chipping away at all the goodwill WotC has built up over the past decade ("LOOK, THIS company responds to its fans, WotC doesn't care about what you want!") and piggybacking on WotC's marketing dollars.

You still haven't provided any upside for WotC to do this.
You can talk about splitting the market till you turn blue, but failure to address the desires of a customer segment large enough for them to regularly target in their marketing for books that do not at all cater to them also pushes people in that segment away from that market they might be splitting. You may not believe there is any upside, but there were a lot of people who kept thinking just that in 2008 until they dropped to third in sales in 2013.... I think we can probably agree that the 2012 next playtest was not a step taken without an alarming decline as people shifted to PF in the 4 years prior to the test
 

People keep pointing to that. They dropped to third AFTER they stopped publishing any new books.

See, here's the secret. While I wish all the best to Levelup and all that, and I honestly do, again, you have to realize just how tiny a niche that will serve. I wasn't exaggerating when I said that there are single 5e books that have sold more copies than all OSR material combined. For Levelup to even register on WotC's radar, they'd have to start selling more than about 50000 copies. Something no one has managed to do in 10 years. The only publications, outside of WOtC, that ever came close to that were Dungeon and Dragon magazines, and they haven't been in print for, what, 15 years now?

Why do you say they are "regularly targeting" you in their marketing? I'm not seeing that at all. They have pretty much just stayed the course for the past ten years. There's not even the barest suggestion that they are chasing niche markets.
 

People keep pointing to that. They dropped to third AFTER they stopped publishing any new books.

See, here's the secret. While I wish all the best to Levelup and all that, and I honestly do, again, you have to realize just how tiny a niche that will serve. I wasn't exaggerating when I said that there are single 5e books that have sold more copies than all OSR material combined. For Levelup to even register on WotC's radar, they'd have to start selling more than about 50000 copies. Something no one has managed to do in 10 years. The only publications, outside of WOtC, that ever came close to that were Dungeon and Dragon magazines, and they haven't been in print for, what, 15 years now?

Why do you say they are "regularly targeting" you in their marketing? I'm not seeing that at all. They have pretty much just stayed the course for the past ten years. There's not even the barest suggestion that they are chasing niche markets.
@tetrasodium feels that Tashaand Ravenloft oversold the amount of rules options that would be present in the final books. I felt they did a pretty good job making the contents clear in advance in both cases, butnI can appreciate viewpoint if there is a little Lucy and the football feel there. But I don't think WotC set those expectations up.
 
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I suppose. I guess after ten years of WotC producing largely the same format every single time, expecting this book to be different is a bit... strange? Sure the content is different, but, as far as format goes, how is Ravenloft or Tasha's any different from SCAG or Xanathar's?

I guess I just don't understand why anyone would expect anything different. WotC's been pretty open and clear about what's in the books, to the point of publicly playtesting large amounts of the material beforehand. Turning around and complaining that they don't have new rule modules for things they've never even mentioned (like, say, Armor as DR as an example) isn't really paying attention.
 

I suppose. I guess after ten years of WotC producing largely the same format every single time, expecting this book to be different is a bit... strange? Sure the content is different, but, as far as format goes, how is Ravenloft or Tasha's any different from SCAG or Xanathar's?

I guess I just don't understand why anyone would expect anything different. WotC's been pretty open and clear about what's in the books, to the point of publicly playtesting large amounts of the material beforehand. Turning around and complaining that they don't have new rule modules for things they've never even mentioned (like, say, Armor as DR as an example) isn't really paying attention.
complaining that they still don't have new rule modules
 


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