What are the major challenges facing the RPG industry in the next few years?

[Ruin Explorer]

3) Virtual reality. Computer/platform games and MMOs do broadcast the core gamer concept (which helps), but they also draw away a lot of potential gamers (which hurts). But we are poised on the brink of the true game exploitation of VR, and I think that the theater of the mind will suffer badly by comparison.

I do think this will be a very big deal, but I also think it's a very long way out, and it won't be as easily/widely adopted as people expect.

I mean, once they have multiplayer VR, with cheap VR headsets, and so on, yeah, people are going to replace TT RPGs, with VR RPGs. But if RPG designers are savvy, they may well be involved in designing the VR RPGs. It may be that D&D 7E has a VR variant in the same way Vampire the Masquerade in the 1990s had a LARP variant (arguably still does).

And also, people are going to use VR meeting space to play RPGs. Not as full-on VR experiences, but just as a way to meet people and play with them that's a bit less restrictive and allows a bit more expression than video conferencing does. I've been playing RPGs by video conference for the last few months (for obvious reasons), and whilst it's different to playing in person, and I prefer in-person for a lot of stuff, it's not bad, and it has some benefits. You could do incredible stuff with showing maps, moving minis, and so on with a VR-type space.

 

[Derren]

I doubt that VR specifically will have much of an impact.
They will only be an expansion to the VTTs we already have. You can already have something like that with Tabletop Simulator.

You certainly won't get anything like the Oasis where people are looking through the eyes of their characters. This would be much too inflexible as you cant really design things on the fly and you had to rely on ready made items which would still not be able to handle all the actions someone can do in an pnp rpg. Not to mention that its very hard to sell those so you won't really get high quality ones.
Not to mention that the VR market grows rather slowly, if it grows at all, and you still have the problem of motion sickness with a not insignificant group of people.

If AR development had produced anything usable imo that would have had a higher impact than full VR.

 

[Micah Sweet]

After a little thought, I want to highlight this a bit. It winds up being a "Kids these days..." argument. Each generation looks at the next, and claims to see that newfangled ways yield some substantial difference (usually framed as the new generation lacking in some quality the old generation values).

It seems to me these arguments are generally wrong. What happens is that the old generation looks for whatever quality in the same place they themselves displayed it, instead of looking at the new generation and all its behaviors to find out where it is exhibited.

First, it was radio and rock and roll music (darned that Elvis, with his pelvis!) was going to ruin kids. Then, TV was supposed to rot our brains. Then personal computers. Then mobile devices. And now worries about VR. Each and every new technology or media is supposed to yield some major cognitive defect in the generation that fully adopts it.

After a few such cycles, it is probably time to realize that no, there will be no major cognitive deficit. Kids today are perfectly capable of internal visualization. They are just aren't engaging in it where we can see it most of the time, 'cuz we are old, and they don't hang out with us.

It's like the old spiritual: I used to be with it, but now what I'm with isn't it, and what is it seems weird and scary to me. It'll happen to you!

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

Whatever people think is coming next? They will be wrong.

And in 100 years, none of this will matter. People will, most likely, be viewing "D&D" and *TTRPGs" with roughly the same engagement and curiosity that many people today view Kriegsspiel and Diplomacy.

 

[Mercurius]

1) The first generation of gamers, those of us who entered the hobby in the 70s, are starting to fade. In the next decade the industry will have to make a major effort to attract not just the usual new crop of gamers each year to make good the normal attrition, but extra players to replace those of us who are going to be reporting to a higher (lower, in some cases) table.

Maybe not as big a deal as you think, considering the huge cohort of new players that came in during 5E. Plus, most Gen Xers are relatively young and will likely continue to play for a bit.

2) A tougher economy. The generation mentioned in #1 is boomers, and with them goes a lot of purchasing power. The continuing economic trends, at least for the next decade, indicate that many new gamers will be entering the hobby with less disposable income.

This is a bigger issue, especially considering that Gen Xers and Millenials are both poorer than their preceding generation, and the trend is likely to consider with Z. But I would magnify this a bit and reframe it as "societal upheaval" even potential civilizational collapse (or, at least, radical transformation). A pessimistic view is that we're in the early stages of a 10-20 year window in which the fate of humanity will be decided, or at least the next iteration. But lots of unknown factors.

3) Virtual reality. Computer/platform games and MMOs do broadcast the core gamer concept (which helps), but they also draw away a lot of potential gamers (which hurts). But we are poised on the brink of the true game exploitation of VR, and I think that the theater of the mind will suffer badly by comparison.

I remember going into a VR arcade back in the early 90s and being greatly disappointed. Of course a lot has changed since then. But I suspect this will be less of an issue, because there's a reason that there's a huge wave of new D&D fans that, I think, has to do with the organic and imaginative nature of it. It is sort of like vinyl vs. mp3s, but more so.

4) Changing generational expectations. Gamers who got started in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s had a greater indoctrination in internal visualization. Later gamers, especially in the last 15 years or so, have ever-increasing exposure to media approaches (HD TV, computers, phones, platforms). I believe that this is going to impact the allure that TTG has for potential gamers who are accustomed to being able to see and hear in great clarity.

We don't know the long-term impact that excessive technology is having on "digital natives," especially the younger kids who grow up with ipads inserted in their faces. But I suspect my response to 3 applies: excessive technology and media may actually generate a nostalgia and longing for organic imagination.

 

[Jd Smith1]

Maybe not as big a deal as you think, considering the huge cohort of new players that came in during 5E. Plus, most Gen Xers are relatively young and will likely continue to play for a bit.

I think it will be, based on #2.

This is a bigger issue, especially considering that Gen Xers and Millenials are both poorer than their preceding generation, and the trend is likely to consider with Z. But I would magnify this a bit and reframe it as "societal upheaval" even potential civilizational collapse (or, at least, radical transformation). A pessimistic view is that we're in the early stages of a 10-20 year window in which the fate of humanity will be decided, or at least the next iteration. But lots of unknown factors.

Nah. This is just the latest stage in the industrial revolution. The population is climbing, while the number of jobs are decreasing due to automation and the world labor market. I admit, you can never rule out a collapse of civilization, but then, that will eliminate the hobby (along with a lot of the hobbyists) and render the point moot.

But I agree, until something changes to soak up the excess workers, personal wealth is going to decline, and that, I believe, will have the greatest impact on the industry.

I remember going into a VR arcade back in the early 90s and being greatly disappointed. Of course a lot has changed since then. But I suspect this will be less of an issue, because there's a reason that there's a huge wave of new D&D fans that, I think, has to do with the organic and imaginative nature of it. It is sort of like vinyl vs. mp3s, but more so.

I was testing VR training programs up until my retirement a few years ago, and I strongly disagree. VR will, when the technology is fully distributed, change everything.

We don't know the long-term impact that excessive technology is having on "digital natives," especially the younger kids who grow up with ipads inserted in their faces. But I suspect my response to 3 applies: excessive technology and media may actually generate a nostalgia and longing for organic imagination.

We'll see. It would be nice if you're right.

 

[pogre]

I have run our high school's D&D club the last couple of years. Given the amazing amount of kids that show up every week, and the incredible diversity of those kids, I think TTRPG will be a viable hobby for a long time.

There will be innovations, but Magic the Gathering didn't kill it, World of Warcraft didn't kill it, and I don't think VR will kill it.

I fully expect a lot of my students will play in high school, maybe into college, then drop it for a while. Finally, they will come back to it in their adult life. They will have nostalgia for 5e and Critical Role the way I have fond remembrances of O-D&D and Homes edition basic. My current table is mostly long time gamers like me, but I have a couple of players who came back in their late 40s and are true to the pattern I mentioned above.

It will remain a niche hobby that waxes and wanes in popularity.

 

[pming]

Hiya!

What challenges does the industry face in the coming years?

The industry continuing to fit a square peg into a round hole.

The days of "everyone can get in on it and make money" is looooong over. The industry has settled, and for the most part, have a handful of "big players". Like Wizards of the Coast, Goodman Games, Game Workshop (mostly mini's, but a large cross over here I suspect), etc. are all pretty much THE companies and thus, THE rpg's available to the masses.

I think the industry will fracture out a bit, much like it did with the advent of 4e D&D and the whole "OSR" movement that created. The cat is out of the bag now...so I think we'll see a lot more emphasis on "small publishers, just doing their thing and selling their limited runs and PDF's", right along side of $50 and $100 hardbacks from the "big guys". On that note...less "small publications" from those 'big guys', and more two-a-year $100 products from them. Bigger gamble, but they already have the recognition and fans, but big pay off for them as well. Everyone else? Expect $20 PDF rules with supplements/adventures coming out every month or two for an 'indie system', with a price around $5 to $10 bucks for PDF...with PoD's at 1.5 to 2.0 times that.

^_^

Paul L. Ming

 

[Sadras]

I have run our high school's D&D club the last couple of years. Given the amazing amount of kids that show up every week, and the incredible diversity of those kids, I think TTRPG will be a viable hobby for a long time.

There will be innovations, but Magic the Gathering didn't kill it, World of Warcraft didn't kill it, and I don't think VR will kill it.

I fully expect a lot of my students will play in high school, maybe into college, then drop it for a while. Finally, they will come back to it in their adult life. They will have nostalgia for 5e and Critical Role the way I have fond remembrances of O-D&D and Homes edition basic. My current table is mostly long time gamers like me, but I have a couple of players who came back in their late 40s and are true to the pattern I mentioned above.

It will remain a niche hobby that waxes and wanes in popularity.

You're living my dream - A teacher that runs a school's D&D club.

 

[Neonchameleon]

My thoughts in no particular order:
1) The first generation of gamers, those of us who entered the hobby in the 70s, are starting to fade. In the next decade the industry will have to make a major effort to attract not just the usual new crop of gamers each year to make good the normal attrition, but extra players to replace those of us who are going to be reporting to a higher (lower, in some cases) table.

To be blunt that first generation of gamers are largely irrelevant for WotC purposes and have been for a long time. WotC don't really care how many people are playing RPGs right now - they care how many people are buying them. Most older gamers have been settled on systems they like for a good long time and that's not a monetizable group. They may have a shelf full of books (something that's impossible with 5e) but when they have something that works for them why change? This, I think, is part of why 40% of the WotC market is under 25.

2) A tougher economy. The generation mentioned in #1 is boomers, and with them goes a lot of purchasing power. The continuing economic trends, at least for the next decade, indicate that many new gamers will be entering the hobby with less disposable income.

Not actually much of an issue; RPGs are cheap. The three core D&D books are each the cost of a AAA video game - and you don't need one per player. I've on one several occasions commented that we were all playing in the pub, all of us were eating a meal there, and the food and drink bill for each of us was more than the RPG PDFs we were using. How cheap RPGs are is a problem for the industry - but by the same token a poor economy leaving people time rich and cash poor is good for RPGs.

3) Virtual reality. Computer/platform games and MMOs do broadcast the core gamer concept (which helps), but they also draw away a lot of potential gamers (which hurts). But we are poised on the brink of the true game exploitation of VR, and I think that the theater of the mind will suffer badly by comparison.

Virtual reality has been the Next Big Thing since the late 80s and most of the attempts have been less effective than the VirtualBoy.

4) Changing generational expectations. Gamers who got started in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s had a greater indoctrination in internal visualization. Later gamers, especially in the last 15 years or so, have ever-increasing exposure to media approaches (HD TV, computers, phones, platforms). I believe that this is going to impact the allure that TTG has for potential gamers who are accustomed to being able to see and hear in great clarity.

I think what you meant to write is that "Gamers who got started in the 70s and 80s had a greater indoctrination in media you consume and visualise passively like the TV and cinema. Later gamers grew up with video games, the internet, and mobile and smartphones, making them stronger readers and more experienced at seeking out and engaging with things that are fun to them rather than just accepting passively what is handed to them. And they form networked communities across the world in a way that is simply inconceivable to older generations; some 70s kids may have had the same spark with lego that 00s kids do with minecraft but they were unable to form the communities of support. As such modern kids are far more empowered to come together to seek abstract fun and far more used in the average case to visualising things."

Or can we not have the generational sniping please?