What are the major challenges facing the RPG industry in the next few years?

[Jd Smith1]

So we have a couple threads going on the RPG industry, and there's a lot of points being tossed around.

But I think one question that should be raised is this: what is coming next?

When I started in gaming in '79 there were no pdfs, no internet, no remote gaming. Over the years I've seen D&D edge into mainstream awareness, the golden era of a brick & mortar FLGS, and the demise of countless FLGS.

Computer/platform games have risen, and both serve as a gateway drug, and also steal away players. File-sharing sites cut into game company margins. Internet sales of PDFs mean that anyone with knowledge of Adobe can publish a game or game supp.

What challenges does the industry face in the coming years?

My thoughts in no particular order:
1) The first generation of gamers, those of us who entered the hobby in the 70s, are starting to fade. In the next decade the industry will have to make a major effort to attract not just the usual new crop of gamers each year to make good the normal attrition, but extra players to replace those of us who are going to be reporting to a higher (lower, in some cases) table.

2) A tougher economy. The generation mentioned in #1 is boomers, and with them goes a lot of purchasing power. The continuing economic trends, at least for the next decade, indicate that many new gamers will be entering the hobby with less disposable income.

3) Virtual reality. Computer/platform games and MMOs do broadcast the core gamer concept (which helps), but they also draw away a lot of potential gamers (which hurts). But we are poised on the brink of the true game exploitation of VR, and I think that the theater of the mind will suffer badly by comparison.

4) Changing generational expectations. Gamers who got started in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s had a greater indoctrination in internal visualization. Later gamers, especially in the last 15 years or so, have ever-increasing exposure to media approaches (HD TV, computers, phones, platforms). I believe that this is going to impact the allure that TTG has for potential gamers who are accustomed to being able to see and hear in great clarity.

Thoughts?

 

[Umbran]

I think on (1) and (4) above, WotC is already far ahead of you. Gamers 40+ are already down to 11% of their market. Folks under 25 are 40% of their market*.

They are handling the generational shift with a game that's hitting big with the new generation. Your concerns about internal visualization don't really seem to be an issue - those technologies enable actual play media, which seems to be an adjunct for new gamers, rather than a replacement for their gaming.




* See WotC - "D&D's Best Year Yet"

 

[dragoner]

Thoughts?

2 is going to be the biggest issue, as an economic downturn is going to hit everyone.

However, in general, when one can buy polyhedrals at walmart, I think RPG's are pretty strong overall. Business is always cyclical, change is constant, managing risk is always an important skill set. Of the big game groups, like the Tavern group, that I have gamed with, they are primarily in their 30's and 40's. GenCon attendees look to skew 20's to 30's, or even younger (college freshman look like 12 year olds now). 3-4 aren't really a deal, what effect they had was mostly in the 90's, and hit table-top wargaming the hardest, rpg's have weathered that storm.

 

[Derren]

I don't think a general economic downturn will hurt RPGs much as they are cheap and time intensive. Although it might hurt sales of optional books.
Corona is a special problem because it prevents you from meeting. And we will see what long term effects this has on VTTs.

If VTTs become mainstream it might change how complexity is viewed. When the computer calculates your roll the demand for simplification might go down.
It would also further increse the share of pdfs compared to print.

Imo there will be a downturn for the rpg business and D&D in general. Stranger Things brought the D&D brand back into view and Critical Role also increased the audience a lot. But that will not last forever and eventually D&D will become more niche again.

And then there is all the cultural discussions. As recently seen because of current sensitivities, making fantasy settings has become a minefield.
That will certainly affect newly created rpgs and it will be a though balancing act for existing companies to change just enough to appease the mob but not too much to retain existing fans.

 

[dragoner]

And then there is all the cultural discussions. As recently seen because of current sensitivities, making fantasy settings has become a minefield.
That will certainly affect newly created rpgs and it will be a though balancing act for existing companies to change just enough to appease the mob but not too much to retain existing fans.

To quote Frederick Douglas:

"It is easier to build strong children, than to fix broken men."

Cultural sensibilities are always changing, and that includes fiction. Fantasy has had an easier time of it than sci-fi, look at Troika or Lancer, there are new settings being built that don't have the problems of the past. Then again these discussions have low impact on the wider game world, other than being caught up in current events. I think I might be a little more suspicious of people feigning surprise at a book from 1979 having issues, nevertheless it is true that nostalgia evokes strong emotions, so that is also understandable.

 

[Derren]

To quote Frederick Douglas:

"It is easier to build strong children, than to fix broken men."

Cultural sensibilities are always changing, and that includes fiction. Fantasy has had an easier time of it than sci-fi, look at Troika or Lancer, there are new settings being built that don't have the problems of the past. Then again these discussions have low impact on the wider game world, other than being caught up in current events. I think I might be a little more suspicious of people feigning surprise at a book from 1979 having issues, nevertheless it is true that nostalgia evokes strong emotions, so that is also understandable.

I wouldn't say low impact. Many companies are proactively changeing things to ward off the mob.
What I am aware of:
Wotc: Change alignment, change descriptions, disclamer for older books, talk about changing the word "race". There are even demands to remove ability scores from races.
Paizo: Changed race to ancestry, removed slavery, radically changed their colonized "Africa" into a supertolerant nation of all ethnicities, made a public excuse for making an adventure path with PCs as guards/police
Cataclyst (Shadowrun): Removed Int penalty from orcs and trolls.

 

[dragoner]

I wouldn't say low impact. Many companies are proactively changeing things to ward off the mob.
What I am aware of:
Wotc: Change alignment, change descriptions, disclamer for older books, talk about changing the word "race". There are even demands to remove ability scores from races.
Paizo: Changed race to ancestry, removed slavery, radically changed their colonized "Africa" into a supertolerant nation of all ethnicities, made a public excuse for making an adventure path with PCs as guards/police
Cataclyst (Shadowrun): Removed Int penalty from orcs and trolls.

How much of any of this is spoken of outside the internet? Very little, that is why it's low impact. Changes happen anyways, minor changes are normal, esp ones to appease customers. Alignment has always been a crap mechanic; as well as changing media due to changing cultural sensibilities is also perfectly normal. IIRC it was Eisenhower than said: "Neither a brave nor wise man lays down on the tracks and waits for history to run them over." I'm reading a sci-fi book from 1963, and it has some very jarring racist language that for sure wouldn't be in even if published in 1973 I bet.

 

[Gorgon Zee]

Some things have not changed for thousands of years:

• People like to meet with their friends and enjoy a shared activity
• People like to tell stories, and participate in telling stories
• People like to play games with physical dice and tactile components

I don’t expect them to change much in the next 50 years, and although there may be differences in how they are presented, or which forms they take, roleplaying games are a natural way for people to have fun together. We’ll see evolution, but the demand will not fade, so as long as we have many sources providing different ways of roleplaying, evolution will work nicely. It’s only when one style dominates (e.g. the d20 disaster) that we have a chance of catastrophic failure.

 

[schneeland]

Re (1)+(4):
As @Umbran already pointed out: the generational change is probably handled already (just as a reminder: according to WotC's marketing infographic, there is now a significant portion of gamers that were born after Lord of the Rings aired in cinemas) - I feel this also, at least, partly shows in the design and the discussions around the current edition.

Re (2):
Tougher economy might be a problem, but similar to how people still play video games when times are tough, I don't see this as a major detriment to the TTRPG industry.

Re (3):
I don't see VR as a major challenge here. It hasn't even found broad adoption in the video gaming industry, so I expect TTRPGs to suffer much less.
I do see room for improvement regarding the accessibility/entry barrier to TTRPGs in terms of book size (yes, a lot of indie systems have smaller books, but a) they are not D&D, i.e. the most popular system and b) often serve different play styles). Streaming does quite a bit here, but I think to further broaden the adoption, there need to be some efforts in restructuring the content in the books.

Somewhat adjacent to this:
I think the transition to VTTs and increased digital consumption are a challenge that needs to be addressed. However, WotC has the license deal with D&D Beyond in place and 5e is also supported on all major VTT platforms. So things do not look to dire here and I feel they made the right call with having an official platform for digital content (I'm still a bit sour about no official PDFs, but I'm also old and no longer their prime target audience).

The are two major challenges I see that you did not list:
A) For major players and for WotC in particular, my feeling is that we currently have some sort of golden age of TTRPGs and a lot of new players are flocking in from all directions, but it is not yet clear how sustainable that interest is. I have seen many people fade out of the hobby after a couple of years and never come back. It will be interesting if WotC (but also other larger companies) are able to sustain the interest of their customers.
B) For indie publishers we already have nearly the same situation as we do for video games: discoverability is a major problem - you might have a very nice system/product, but you need to make people aware. I suspect this challenge will grow in the future and indie creators will increasingly need to invest more resources into marketing to find an audience.

 

[Umbran]

4) Changing generational expectations. Gamers who got started in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s had a greater indoctrination in internal visualization. Later gamers, especially in the last 15 years or so, have ever-increasing exposure to media approaches (HD TV, computers, phones, platforms). I believe that this is going to impact the allure that TTG has for potential gamers who are accustomed to being able to see and hear in great clarity.

Thoughts?

After a little thought, I want to highlight this a bit. It winds up being a "Kids these days..." argument. Each generation looks at the next, and claims to see that newfangled ways yield some substantial difference (usually framed as the new generation lacking in some quality the old generation values).

It seems to me these arguments are generally wrong. What happens is that the old generation looks for whatever quality in the same place they themselves displayed it, instead of looking at the new generation and all its behaviors to find out where it is exhibited.

First, it was radio and rock and roll music (darned that Elvis, with his pelvis!) was going to ruin kids. Then, TV was supposed to rot our brains. Then personal computers. Then mobile devices. And now worries about VR. Each and every new technology or media is supposed to yield some major cognitive defect in the generation that fully adopts it.

After a few such cycles, it is probably time to realize that no, there will be no major cognitive deficit. Kids today are perfectly capable of internal visualization. They are just aren't engaging in it where we can see it most of the time, 'cuz we are old, and they don't hang out with us.