D&D (2024) What do you think One D&D will do to the VTT industry?

[beancounter]

As I mentioned elsewhere, I believe that once WoTC achieves a certain market share percent with their VTT, they will lock out all other VTTs from D&D Beyond.

Yes, it will piss off a bunch of people, it won't be enough to make a material difference to their bottom line.

I also believe that they will charge a substantial subscription fee for the bare bones version of their VTT, and will have "tiers" that will have additional features, for a higher price.

I also believe that they will engage in micro transactions starting with (but not limited to) the virtual miniatures.

 

[Retreater]

Foundry isn’t really the middleman. They’re paying wizards to make wizards money at vanishingly little overhead from wizards. Intentionally cutting them would be at least as dumb as telling Target, Amazon, and FLGSs to suck it and not letting them sell D&D books.

To my knowledge, Foundry pays them nothing (since they have no official content whatsoever.) Other companies (Fantasy Grounds, Roll20) do, and Wizards makes a little off each sell of a book - but I doubt if Wizards makes a steady income from the Roll20 subscription fees.

sure, because the console is sold at a loss, so they make their profit via individual games and subscription services.

Yeah. And a group that buys one PHB and passes it around is also a "loss" for Wizards (when it has the potential to also sell subscriptions, multiple microtransactions, etc.)

It would literally be idiotic to hard-line centralize all of that into one singular source that will have just, from the player base perspective, blatantly betrayed the players at large in a short-sighted and aggressive money-grab.

And what do you think the clever marketing term "One D&D" means if not creating a singular source? The whole promo video was about bringing all the players to the D&D community (including the VTT).

Doing a 180 on that, effectively invalidating hundreds of dollars of purchases on average (per user), and basically telling people, “if you want D&D, you can only get it through us now.” would unquestionably sink their rep lower than it was in 2012.

Not if they have the devoted fan base now. Many people were not devoted to their brand, and honestly many weren't ready for online play at that time. Now they've let the VTT market grow past them, and like any other major company they want to get a big chunk of that pie.
It's just hearsay, but I've heard they make more money on the MtG: Arena game than they do the physical cards. Wizards must be eyeing that success to see how it can be duplicated with D&D. And that's through getting their players in one space playing the game and purchasing the content from them.
Would Wizards want you playing MtG on Board Game Simulator? Not when you can buy into the MtG: Arena ecosystem.

 

[Retreater]

And let's also ask: is One D&D a revision or new edition? We've heard "revision," and what has WotC done with revisions in the past?
Can you buy the 3.0 Player's Handbook, Monster Manual, or DMG on DM's Guild?
What about when they released Monsters of the Multiverse? Did they pull the old material from being able to be purchased on VTTs and D&D Beyond?
I think it's a fair assumption that WotC is going to pull the 5th edition content that we're currently playing as soon as a viable revision is released. (So, if the 5.5 DMG is released in 2025, that's when they'll pull the 5.0 DMG.)
But, hey, it doesn't matter. I'm just posting my predictions and getting laughed at for my opinions by the WotC fans who think their company is beyond making business decisions that follow past practices and things eluded to in their current marketing.

 

[Umbran]

But, hey, it doesn't matter. I'm just posting my predictions and getting laughed at for my opinions by the WotC fans who think their company is beyond making business decisions that follow past practices and things eluded to in their current marketing.

Mod Note:
When your point rests on taking pot-shots at people who disagree with you, your point is weakened, and moderators come and give you messages in red text telling you to not insult folks.

So, really, while it may feel good in the moment, it doesn't actually help you. Resist the urge.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

I have agreed with you that what you say is possible but I still find it unlikely. However, if they pull the licences from Roll20 or from FantasyGrounds that does not prevent us from continuing to play on those platforms. It makes it harder sure, but no more difficult than playing at the table.
They would have to stop printing books also. They could do that also but at that point they would have generated enough ill will that people would be heading over to Pathfinder.
In some ways the biggest danger would be that they do not do any of these bad things but the new VTT is so sweet, and supports other games so well that it becomes dominant in the market and in 10/20 years they become dominant in VTT play as Google or Microsoft in their areas.
And I think it will take at least 20 years. 10 to get the VTT into a state where it is good enough to become the goto platform, and another 10 to take over the online ttrpg space.

Another thing to remember is that 5e has an SRD and OGL.

All other platforms have to do is allow homebrew, even if they can’t safely allow you to share in their public market without review.

Wizards would be hard pressed to actually stop people playing D&D on those platforms.

And the last time they moved to a new system that was different enough you couldn’t OGL reverse engineer it easily and issued a much more restrictive license for that new system, Pathfinder took off, and the fanbase fractured.

Imagine what shareholders would think of the leadership at wizards if they caused their vastly larger new player base to fracture like that, and turn D&D once more into a topic that almost instantly sours any conversation with edition war battle lines.

 

[dave2008]

WotC will absolutely be pulling the licenses from other VTTs and saber rattling over them including anything that’s not in the SRD once their VTT is on the market. Guaranteed.

I find this to be unlikely, but I see no need to speculate beyond that when we will know the answer soon enough!

 

[dave2008]

And let's also ask: is One D&D a revision or new edition? We've heard "revision," and what has WotC done with revisions in the past?
Can you buy the 3.0 Player's Handbook, Monster Manual, or DMG on DM's Guild?

You cannot by the PHB or DMG as far as I can tell, but there a lot of 3e books available on the DMsGuild.

What about when they released Monsters of the Multiverse? Did they pull the old material from being able to be purchased on VTTs and D&D Beyond?

I don't know about VTTs, but though you can't buy the old version of D&D Beyond, you still have it if you purchased it.

I think it's a fair assumption that WotC is going to pull the 5th edition content that we're currently playing as soon as a viable revision is released. (So, if the 5.5 DMG is released in 2025, that's when they'll pull the 5.0 DMG.)

Yes and no. I think pretty much everything except the PHB, DMG, & MM will still be available. Not 100% sure about Volo's. Did those stat blocks get replaced by MotM? Regardless, I think the correct move is to no longer sell the 2014 PHB, DMG, & MM. Not sure why you think that is an issue.

But, hey, it doesn't matter. I'm just posting my predictions and getting laughed at for my opinions by the WotC fans who think their company is beyond making business decisions that follow past practices and things eluded to in their current marketing.

Man, you have gotten so sour over the past year or so. It is a game, don't take people's internet opinions* to heart. Relax or maybe take a break from forums for a bit. It seems like this all getting in your head to much.

*I say "internet opinions" because people often think and feel differently in person vs. how the act/feel on the internet. This medium is not a natural way for humans to interact, so don't assume people are behaving normally while using it.

 

[dave2008]

Imagine what shareholders would think of the leadership at wizards if they caused their vastly larger new player base to fracture like that, and turn D&D once more into a topic that almost instantly sours any conversation with edition war battle lines.

I think that is something a lot of worriers are missing. 5e has been so successful in no small part because of how inclusive they have been. They have really embraced 3PP and homebrew. It just seems unlikely they will reverse course now when everything they have been saying is that they plan to stay the course!

 

[dave2008]

Cutting out the middleman and increasing profits isn't likely to do what you are suggesting but even if it does, Hasbro is, in the end, a publicly traded corporation. As long as that's the case their profit motive is really all that matters.

I agree, but what you suggest would not increase their profits. So, by your logic, they will not do it!

 

[dave2008]

My intent isn't to insult anybody. I assume everyone posting on here has at least basic intelligence, probably well above that.
But look at precedence. Look at the rest of the entertainment market zeitgeist, and I think you can see where I'm coming to these observations.

Do you mean the precedent of bringing back the OGL, an SRD, providing free Basic version, and creating the DMsGuild (the first time ever for any 3PP to use D&D IP)?

I have no love for WotC (or TSR). I skipped 2e and 3e because I didn't care for those products / editions. However, if I look at what WotC has done since 4e, it seems they have tried to be as fan friendly as possible. That doesn't mean they always get it right, IMO, but I also realize that I am probably not the typical D&D fan.

PS - You may not have intended to be insulting, but you comment was insulting the way you phrased it. However, intent is hard to truly discern across the internet. I am reminded of that regularly.