D&D 4E What if 4e (whenever it happens) is not OGL?

[Ranger REG]

A thread I started at the end of April came to this question partway through, but I was hoping for a discussion specifically on this. I didn't see a post from you in there, though, so maybe it isn't the one you mean.

Fine.

I'm in the "so what?" camp. If 4e is closed then maybe d20 Modern will support OGL. If not, so what?

We already have the SRD. Publishers who want to support the SRD will improve upon it.

 

[Andre]

Publishers who want to support the SRD will improve upon it.

Only so long as they have customers. And it's by no means certain that they'll have enough of those after 4E is released. Most don't have enough customers today.

It won't bother me to be wrong about this, but anyone who thinks that the current OGL market for 3.x products will survive 4E is (IMO) whistling past the graveyard.

 

[EditorBFG]

Only so long as they have customers. And it's by no means certain that they'll have enough of those after 4E is released. Most don't have enough customers today.

It won't bother me to be wrong about this, but anyone who thinks that the current OGL market for 3.x products will survive 4E is (IMO) whistling past the graveyard.

See, this is something like what I worry about too.

A lot of the posts above mention things about many of the smaller publishers dying out, like it is good thing (maybe in a Darwinian sense?), and while the number of really low-tier, low-quality publishers does kind of muddy the waters a bit, I don't want the percentage of 3rd party entities who die off to be a huge.

My main question is-- and maybe the answer is no-- does anyone have a clever idea of how to keep so many options available for the RPG customers?

I think the idea of OSCRIC-like 4E clone is something that makes sense in this direction. The idea of it being a multi-publisher common system is a good fix, although they would have to find a way to indicate compatibility with 4E that didn't get them in legal trouble. And in fact, if WotC felt challenged at all by the existence of such a document, it could bring down the hammer and win, even if in the wrong, on the basis of just having more money for legal fees-- an effect similar to the "chilling of civil rights" people speak of in America.

Does anyone have any interesting ideas for how to implement something like this?

Or any other ideas for how to keep the current field of publishers so varied?

 

[ColonelHardisson]

It won't bother me to be wrong about this, but anyone who thinks that the current OGL market for 3.x products will survive 4E is (IMO) whistling past the graveyard.

There have been entirely different game systems that have survived with no connection to D&D whatsoever. There's no reason to believe that OGL games like Mutants & Masterminds and Conan will see the floor drop out from under their popularity with the advent of an entirely different 4e D&D. Thinking otherwise ignores that there is, indeed, a game industry besides D&D. Not much of one, but it's been there for almost as long as D&D itself.

 

[ColonelHardisson]

A lot of the posts above mention things about many of the smaller publishers dying out, like it is good thing (maybe in a Darwinian sense?), and while the number of really low-tier, low-quality publishers does kind of muddy the waters a bit, I don't want the percentage of 3rd party entities who die off to be a huge.

The industry, such as it is, would like simply shrink back to pre-3e D&D levels, or maybe just a bit larger. There were quite a few games back in the pre-3e days, as we all probably recall. Matter of fact, I'm pretty confident that the RP game industry will remain larger than it was before 3e, simply due to the fact that the pdf market exists, which provides an outlet that simply wasn't there even 10 years ago.

 

[Nellisir]

I'm pretty confident that the RP game industry will remain larger than it was before 3e, simply due to the fact that the pdf market exists, which provides an outlet that simply wasn't there even 10 years ago.

Amen.

 

[Ranger REG]

Only so long as they have customers. And it's by no means certain that they'll have enough of those after 4E is released. Most don't have enough customers today.

Then they build upon what fanbase they do have and hope that they serve to expand the network.

 

[RFisher]

I think 4e will appear once Wizards sees D&D sales starting to drop. I think 4e may very well have the opposite of the desired effect & end up making sales drop off even faster, though perhaps after a brief initial bounce. Wizards will come up with some really good options for turning things around, but they'll decide they'd rather get out of the RPG business. They'll continue licensing the brand, but no RPG publisher will be able to afford the license for a D&D-branded RPG, much less the price they ask for buying the brand outright.

The hobby will shrink, but we'll still have plenty of small publishers that do it more out of love than money. Plus the free community efforts.

I just feel that RPGs are more-&-more becoming something that can't continue to turn the sort of profits big companies need. The natural trend is also for companies--as they get bigger--to lose more really talented people than they can replace. They days of a big RPG industry are numbered, though I'm optimistic about the future of the hobby.

 

[mcrow]

Here's what I think:

It's sort of funny, but 2nd Ed AD&D books still outsell many smallpress companies. D&D 3.5 will have a pretty strong following for quite a while, though the players that move to 4E will hurt sales. Eventually the will be nothing more worth publishing for D&D V3.5. When that happens is when smallpress takes it on the chin.

Now, it is my hope that the SW SAGA rules become the new D&D system for 4E. If that is the case, D&D 4E system will still be usable under OGL (for the most part). If that happens smallpress picks up again with a whole lot of stuff to publish for new system. AFAIK, Saga is not easily used with the standard d20 rules.

There I also the possibility that WotC will go with a system that is so different that it would no longer fit under the OGl license.

 

[dmccoy1693]

I just feel that RPGs are more-&-more becoming something that can't continue to turn the sort of profits big companies need.

When was it ever? An old joke I heard was, "How do you make a small fortune in the RPG industry? Start off with a large fortune."