D&D 4E What was Paizo thinking? 3.75 the 4E clone?

[BryonD]

What if the gamers that remain 3.X are the same gamers that no longer buy game supplements?

What if the gamers that advidly remain 3.X are casual gamers who no longer seek to bring new players into their groups or expand the hobby?

What if the gamers that remain 3.X are a far far smaller portion of the market than Paizo thought?

What if the gamers that stay with 3X are the gamers who buy the most supplements?

What if the gamers that stay with 3X are the most active and out going?

What if the gamers that stay with 3X are a far far larger portion of the market than anyone thought?

Given the simple is better design philosophy, I think these potentials are at least as likely as yours.

 

[crosswiredmind]

What if the gamers that stay with 3X are the gamers who buy the most supplements?

What if the gamers that stay with 3X are the most active and out going?

What if the gamers that stay with 3X are a far far larger portion of the market than anyone thought?

Given the simple is better design philosophy, I think these potentials are at least as likely as yours.

I would agree with you if it were not for the fact that 3.5 has had flagging sales even before 4E was announced.

Pathfinder will be a niche game and 4E will sell well. That does not mean that either "side" is wrong.

 

[Erik Mona]

Many companies have been experiencing sagging sales for 3.5 material.

We haven't.

--Erik

 

[BryonD]

I would agree with you if it were not for the fact that 3.5 has had flagging sales even before 4E was announced.

That doesn't dispute me. Any game will decline as it gets older. That doesn't mean that the distribution of who goes to 4e vs who stays with 3X is going to favor 4e in terms of tendency to buy product.

Pathfinder will be a niche game and 4E will sell well. That does not mean that either "side" is wrong.

I agree.

 

[BryonD]

Many companies have been experiencing sagging sales for 3.5 material.

We haven't.

--Erik

To be fair, he seemed to mean overall sales.
But I'd suggest that the persistence of Paizo fans buying habits is circumstantial evidence to support my suggestions.

 

[Raven Crowking]

I think using the general "Points of Light" setting as the "implied setting" is a good call.

Why not? It has been the implied setting in every edition of D&D except (possibly) 3.X, and one could make a good argument that it is the implied setting of 3.X as well.

RC

 

[abelan]

To be fair, he seemed to mean overall sales.
But I'd suggest that the persistence of Paizo fans buying habits is circumstantial evidence to support my suggestions.

We're not just Paizo fans, but the lack of new material from other companies is part of the problem. I give Paizo credit for offering new 3.5 material, and I see promise in their Pathfinder RPG. By ending Dungeon magazine in print format, WotC let the buyers of D&D products turn and look elsewhere.

In the scheme of RPG economics, DMs buy the most product, and right now only Paizo is getting my money. When 4e comes around, I may not be turning back to WotC as long as Paizo provides me with a quality product.

Just because WotC slaps a new face on D&D doesn't make it any easier to buy it. They want people to buy their product, and the core books generate the majority of sales. 4e is not about fixing 3.5, its about making money. Time will tell if Paizo made a good decision, but I wouldn't bury them today.

 

[Raven Crowking]

If Paizo doesnt have the marketing department to do that research they should at least follow the industry leader that did.

Are you aware of any new marketing survey, after the one that brought us 3e?


RC

 

[catsclaw]

But I'd suggest that the persistence of Paizo fans buying habits is circumstantial evidence to support my suggestions.

Maybe. If sales of 3.5 are declining across the industry, though, it could be like buggy whips in 1910. It's not like buggy whip manufacturers went out of business all at the same time; the ones making the cheap, crappy buggy whips folded first, then the ones making decent, serviceable buggy whips, then the ones making the best, most well crafted buggy whips. The better manufacturers actually should see a slight increase in sales at the beginning, as the bad companies with the lowest profit margins go under and the market shifts to the remaining players.

Now, Paizo easily produces the best adventures for D&D, in both production quality and writing. If anyone is going to make a viable system based on 3.5, it'll be them. And they're still in a position to create 4e adventures if the market exists--in a field as reliant on freelancers as writing role playing games, you literally can just buy rules expertise. But what gives me pause is the locking of their flagship property to the Pathfinder RPG, and the fact they're only going to have a vague idea of how well it's going to sell until 14 months after 4e launches. That's not forever, but it's still a fairly long time, and it makes you wonder what made them so disgusted with 4e that they couldn't wait 3 months to see its reception in the marketplace.

But who really knows? They've clearly looked at the numbers and made their best guess, and that's much more likely to be better than my best guess. And they could always announce the 4e version of the Pathfinder Campaign Setting in July after seeing the rules, or 4e could tank horribly, or maybe there's enough people who appreciate the quality of Paizo products that they can keep publishing adventures in 3.5 and still serve 80% of the 4e market.

 

[tricky_bob]

I would agree with you if it were not for the fact that 3.5 has had flagging sales even before 4E was announced.
.

Sure but why?

Is it not possible that we already have all the races, classes, game worlds that we could ever need to make adventures for the next 10+ years ? The answer is yes we do. What we don't need is a computerised rpg bastard child made entirely for greed.

Look at the later 3.5 books? how much effort was put into them? not much. WotC want your money and 4.0 is their way of getting it, plain and simple.

The real question is do you want a new edition? What % of current 3.5 players will convert to 4.0? What makes anyone think the new system wont also be full of imbalance?

4.0 fans keep going on about how 3.5 is flawed and needs fixing but it hasn't stopped it being the most successful edition ever.

Personally I've spent a lot of money on FR and 3.5. I don't take kindly to anyone saying I should bin the lot and change to something that isn't in any way proven just because WotC want yet more money from me because I like D&D.