I've run this form level 1, to level 9 where the PC's are in the Castle. Generally the combats have all been quite manageable, for a group which ranges from 3-6 players depending on who's away (once or twice I've let them run a couple of the NPC's, if numbers are low, otherwise the NPC's do very little). Which re-enforces Zapp's view - there's the "on paper" evaluation, vs experience and knowing your players. A couple of fights were interesting and challenging:
An early fight with ghouls killed a PC's follower (killing NPC's is a personal favourite of mine, and very much in the spirit of a horror-style DnD game)
The six vampire spawn in Vallaki was very deadly, but I had Ezek and some guards (i.e. red-shirts) come and help just prior - a lucky turn undead got rid of half the spawn, so the otehr 3 only killed a few mooks before finally being cut down.
Babba Lsaga wasn't very tough by herself, even in her flying skull, but once her hut appeared it was uber-deadly due to its reach and damage output; however my guys generally know when to run, and one brave PC jumped inside the hut and managed to de-activate it with a very timely natural 20!
Despite what I'd read elsewhere, the Amber Temple wasn't overly hard - probably mainly due to Devils Sight on one PC, combined with two who could dimension door etc. Difficult, but not deadly.
The Roc in the Pass actually turned out to be tricky, I think because the PC's were already damaged, and also it could fly and do hit and run. I seem to recall at least one PC going over the edge somehow, but another PC flew down and grabbed them before they hit the ground. However I did manage to grab and fly off with one PC, howeer it was the Warlock again so his Armour of Agathas kicked in and after a couple of rounds it dropped him.
The only really tricky fight, was the latest, which wasn't scripted in the adventure: I had Strahd ambush the PC's in the Throne Room, which is where they were going to activate the Sun Sword. Strahd was scared of that, so he brought along Rahadin, who has also previously turned a PC to Strahd's side (the warlock accepted lots of gifts in the temple, and went evil). So the PC's were 9th level, had all their stuff except the sun sword, so could create lots of sunlight, radiant damage, and so on. With 5 PC's vs 3 NPCs, it was still fairly close although the PC-turncoat certainly tipped it in Strahd's favour. I managed to kill one PC early, then another was dropped as two fled / turned invisible; the last ones then fled. The surviving PC's were mostly on single digit hp. It was a perfect outcome for me - a bit of PC death, but one's coming back as a Revenant, and the other will be Raised; the player whose PC changed sides, will now play a re-vamped van Richten (who is their prophisised helper).
It was a perfect game of cat and mouse - Strahd could have killed them all off, but what's the fun in that? I'll let them take a long rest in the Chapel, haunted by the storm and dreams of wolves etc, then hit them with packs of wolves as soon as they are rested... just to keep it fun.
So anyway, most of the "deadly on paper" fights were, for my players, no major problem. In fact, just before they had their huge and deadly fight in the castle, one player remarked at how he was surprised - the fights so far were generally easier than he expected. Definitely once your P's are around level 6+, they are quite robust, and have plenty of options to save themselves before it's too late.
An early fight with ghouls killed a PC's follower (killing NPC's is a personal favourite of mine, and very much in the spirit of a horror-style DnD game)
The six vampire spawn in Vallaki was very deadly, but I had Ezek and some guards (i.e. red-shirts) come and help just prior - a lucky turn undead got rid of half the spawn, so the otehr 3 only killed a few mooks before finally being cut down.
Babba Lsaga wasn't very tough by herself, even in her flying skull, but once her hut appeared it was uber-deadly due to its reach and damage output; however my guys generally know when to run, and one brave PC jumped inside the hut and managed to de-activate it with a very timely natural 20!
Despite what I'd read elsewhere, the Amber Temple wasn't overly hard - probably mainly due to Devils Sight on one PC, combined with two who could dimension door etc. Difficult, but not deadly.
The Roc in the Pass actually turned out to be tricky, I think because the PC's were already damaged, and also it could fly and do hit and run. I seem to recall at least one PC going over the edge somehow, but another PC flew down and grabbed them before they hit the ground. However I did manage to grab and fly off with one PC, howeer it was the Warlock again so his Armour of Agathas kicked in and after a couple of rounds it dropped him.
The only really tricky fight, was the latest, which wasn't scripted in the adventure: I had Strahd ambush the PC's in the Throne Room, which is where they were going to activate the Sun Sword. Strahd was scared of that, so he brought along Rahadin, who has also previously turned a PC to Strahd's side (the warlock accepted lots of gifts in the temple, and went evil). So the PC's were 9th level, had all their stuff except the sun sword, so could create lots of sunlight, radiant damage, and so on. With 5 PC's vs 3 NPCs, it was still fairly close although the PC-turncoat certainly tipped it in Strahd's favour. I managed to kill one PC early, then another was dropped as two fled / turned invisible; the last ones then fled. The surviving PC's were mostly on single digit hp. It was a perfect outcome for me - a bit of PC death, but one's coming back as a Revenant, and the other will be Raised; the player whose PC changed sides, will now play a re-vamped van Richten (who is their prophisised helper).
It was a perfect game of cat and mouse - Strahd could have killed them all off, but what's the fun in that? I'll let them take a long rest in the Chapel, haunted by the storm and dreams of wolves etc, then hit them with packs of wolves as soon as they are rested... just to keep it fun.
So anyway, most of the "deadly on paper" fights were, for my players, no major problem. In fact, just before they had their huge and deadly fight in the castle, one player remarked at how he was surprised - the fights so far were generally easier than he expected. Definitely once your P's are around level 6+, they are quite robust, and have plenty of options to save themselves before it's too late.