Why 5E may be the last edition of D&D

[CapnZapp]

2024 would also be the 50th Anniversary -- a good time for a major release.

I'll be really excited about 6E if it's largely the same as 5E, and completely compatible with all the 5E adventures. I suspect I'm not alone in that.

I would love it if "6E" was eminently compatible with 5E, only harder (more challenging).

You could already in 5E publish an "Advanced Player's Handbook" that ends up with heroes of about the same numbers (roughly equal number of attacks, to hit, hit points, AC and so on) yet with many more decision points internal to the class; many more build tweaks. (In other words, you don't need bigger numbers just to make chargen more crunchier) In fact, if resulting APHB heroes had slightly lower values (at least once out of tier I), that would be of value, since it would mean that existing adventures would automatically become slightly more challenging!

You could already in 5E publish an "Advanced Monster Manual" geared towards characters that actually uses the PHB fully. (I suspect most players eventually play with feats, multiclassing and magic items, even though WotC likes to pretend that's not the case). Monsters that gain skills and at around level 10 start to gain abilities that allow them to move about the battlefield even though experienced D&D players try to shut them down. At high level monsters no longer go for simplicity first; but gain a few signature supernatural abilities that give them a good chance of delivering their signature attacks before going down. Also solo monsters start to appear; monsters that truly are challenging to a CR-appropriate party even when facing 4 or 5 adventures all by themselves.

An "Advanced Dungeon Master's Guide" should mostly offer (finally!) a replacement magic item pricing and creation system for those players that wish to keep gaining the amounts of gold that D&D has always offered (read "lots") but still not worry about downtime. In other words, a stable and robust way to be able to buy magic items that you can take with you right away, down the next dungeon.

All these three books, the APHB, ADMG and AMM, would be freely intermixable with the current books, both core and supplementary:
- you could use existing adventures, monsters and magic items with advanced classes
- you could use existing classes, monsters and gold with advanced magic item shoppes
- you could use existing classes, monsters and magic items with advanced monsters

And of course you could play the game with advanced classes, gaining gold to buy magic items, facing advanced monsters - and it would still be 5E - that's what I would do in a heartbeat!

 

[Parmandur]

Only way we will have a final edition is the IP tanks so hard its worthless.

Even the Amazon rankings show D&D is on a downward trend, it used to be in the to 100. Eventually they will hit saturation point (everyone who wants 5E has 5E).

Core book sales are always the thing, the 5E new releases hang aorund for a bit but not like the core rules. I would be surprised if they announce 6E in the next 2 years, if they did it we're looking at 2022 minimum release (8 year cycle), and I lean more towards 10 myself and no more than 12.

The IP outside the RPG is a pipe dream. There will be no AAA+ game or smash hit movie in the next 2-3 years, towards the end of the 5E lifecycle at best (personally I think its vapourware). Tie in T-Shirts and mugs and crappy games are the best its gonna get. A slow 5E decline is to be expected, I can't see how that could kill the IP although maybe some sort of corporate shenanigans could do it in as well as the IP becoming worthless (new CEO hate D&D/RPG's).

Betting man 10 years give or take a year.

The PHB is currently the 60th bestseller in books on Amazon, the DMG is 92 among all books, though the MM is just outside the top 100 at 113. Those are just the current rankings, not historical: the annual list for 2018 has all three Core books in the top 100, with the PHB at 22 just behind Crazy Rich Asians and ahead of The Very Hungry Caterpillar. So, yeah, selling well at the moment, and people enter middle school, high school and college every year amidst the current wave of D&D branding in books and streaming, so it seems likely to continue doing well:

https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2018/books

A big video game won't happen until such a time as Hasbro has a permanent corporate partner, as they did when NWN came out, though millions of people are playing the mediocre games they have now so I imagine they are crying all the way to the bank. A big movie is being worked on, and has major potential as a toy commercial.

 

[Parmandur]

Just pointing out, folks have said similar things about every edition, save 4e. Granted, the situation is different now. But the situation is always different. It's odd to me that after so long, people still think this one will finally be the edition that never gets replaced.

It is fair to say that 6e is not in the forseeable future. It is naieve to say 6e is not in the future at all.

While you are correct, I am equally certain that there will be a future version of Monopoly. I am equally certain most people who play Monopoly will not notice the change.

So with any future 6E for D&D: backwards compatible, largely invisible to most players.

 

[MechaTarrasque]

I have, somewhat in jest, suggested that the next best chance for 6e will be right after the D&D movie (if it is a big success), because the odds are that the movie will change something about D&D (did you know that sorcerers are psychic? rangers all fly? goblins are good guys? druids plantshape instead of wildshape? monks are the most OP class? paladins can hit you until you become LG? Lolth is Drizzt's babymama? Odds are there will be something more outrageous in the movie--remember this a Hasbro movie after all) and they will want the movie fans to feel comfortable. Unless it is a big change, like all spellcasters have to use the limited supply of energy in their areas to power spells (and the only advantage to being a higher level caster is being better at quickly grabbing energy), it will probably be pretty compatible with 5e, since 5e is pretty well designed for new/casual players.

 

[Parmandur]

Looking further back, D&D seems to have sold better on Amazon in 2018 than 2017: in 2017, only the PHB made the yearly top 100, at #40, behind "Brown Bear, Brown Bear, What Do You Hear" and still just ahead of "The Very Hungry Caterpillar" (speaking of Evergreen books):

https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2017/books

 

[SkidAce]

... Lolth is Drizzt's babymama? ....

Come on...EVERYONE knew that already.....

 

[Charlaquin]

One way or another, there will be a final edition. Nothing lasts forever.

Obviously, but D&D is doing to well right now for it to be reasonable to assume 5e will be the final edition in the sense of being the most current edition at the time D&D folds. Heck, even if D&D folded, someone would buy the IP, or license it, or WotC would buy it. Nothing short of the collapse of the RPG industry is going to bring about the final edition of D&D, which will happen eventually, but there’s no reason to suspect it will happen in the forseeable future.

 

[Charlaquin]

While you are correct, I am equally certain that there will be a future version of Monopoly. I am equally certain most people who play Monopoly will not notice the change.

So with any future 6E for D&D: backwards compatible, largely invisible to most players.

Most likely, yes. Until D&D profits start to show significant decline, they’ll probably go the Chaossium route of occasionally releasing new editions that are minor updates to what is largely the same system.

 

[Parmandur]

OK, so, it turns out that the PHB (nor any other D&D book) didn't make the top 100 on Amazon in books in 2014 or 2105. D&D appears in the top 100 for the first time on an annual basis in 2016, when the PHB hits #92, behind "Dragons Love Tacos" and ahead of "The Everything Kids' Science Experiments Book: Boil Ice, Float Water, Measure Gravity-Challenge the World Around You!"

https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016/books/ref=zg_bsar_pg_2?ie=UTF8&pg=2

So, while sales have been pretty steady on the daily charts, Amazon does suggest it has been increasingly strong in sales.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

I think the OP might be right.

The thing is, any new edition inevitably splits the customer base, which means it doesn't make sense to do a small, incremental release - better to patch as much as you can with supplements and errata until you really can't live with the warts and then do a full revision of the whole thing.

But it only makes sense to do that full revision when sales drop dramatically, and if they drop dramatically from their current great height then there's a real chance that the Powers That Be will instead shelve it for a re-release in 20 years - probably with the same rules again.

5e is doing spectacularly well because it is just the right product at just the right time. It's really hard to envisage any 6e that could do as well - by the time it was released "just the right time" will have passed.

A “6e” that is just a revision of 5e to fix the warts, and thus totally backward compatible, wouldn’t split the fanbase, IMO.